ICUMD

Not an expert here, but could be by Central bank design. Monetary easing stoking inflation and helping reduce debt loads. Likely unanticipated was the Russian - Ukraine invasion causing oil to spike which is driving inflation across the board much higher. Challenge will be getting people back to work post COVID and filling all the job vacancies. Unless that happens, supply chain issues can remain keeping inflation high. Recession risk is also high. Imo, it will be difficult to get people to go back to work, at any pay.

Agree. I would argue that a FIH share buyback at current attractive prices will be a bigger bet on the airport. The airport is really the gem in the portfolio.

Looks like FIH sold IIFL wealth for proceeds of 190 million USD. Net gain of 65 million. Looking forward to see where they put the proceeds. Share buybacks seem to make sense!

Alphabet - the Berkshire of Technology in my books.

I suspect Fairfax India is keeping its capital for more acquisitions while FFH is buying back simply as a way to deploy cash at an attractive valuation. It will get interesting once Anchorage lists on the Indian exchange.

From today's developments. Can only speculate reasons for the investors to sell at current market prices. OTOH, Fairfax's playback is clear. Buy back aggressively FIH.U while at a tremendous discount to BV. They have purchased back nearly 10% of the company in the last six months. Anticipate ongoing buybacks, if not an outright takeover by FFH.

Thank you. You are correct. Very positive action for the future.

Good catch. The claim is mysterious. I don't believe the share price has even traded that high since Dec 31, 2021. Yet they claim they bought the 1.4 million shares under an 'automatic share repurchase plan'. Is this separate from the NCIB? Are they selling to themselves ie. Fairfax to Fairfax India?

I wonder the same thing. Can't help but think there is a strong level of manipulation going on to keep the price suppressed. And it's been doing this for quite some time now.

Thanks for posting. At these prices, upside is very good IMO. Share repurchases I think will remain 'safety net' to ensure mark to BV periodically. Bial continues to build out its infrastructure with construction of the Metro to its doors and terminal 2. They are also executing well on their aerocity plan. An inflationary environment should make these assets even more valuable. Not the worst way to have exposure to a emerging market, especially at current prices.

The 2008 Lehman moment seemed to be aborted by central bank intervention and bailouts. I doubt the central bankers will let the house of cards fall. They are not afraid to raise liquidity. Any wobble, and bam... lower interest rates IMO + bailouts. I try to keep powder dry for the wobble.

Can you claim a capital loss if your adjusted capital base is more than $252 USD? Overall, it does seem to me that the shareholders are paying tax on the deemed dividend at their own expense and in favor of Fairfax. (Unless you are in a tax exempt account).

With the rising popularity of EVs, it will be interesting to see how additional electricity will be generated. That's a lot of windmills and solar farms in Germany.... Good thing they will have a couple of mothballed nuclear reactors on standby!

I suppose inadvertent bloodstream injection of vaccine could cause uptake in the heart muscle, spike protein production there, immune attack and myocarditis.

Probably dividend payment to follow?

Complete speculation, but could be sellers of FFH in the Dutch Auction looking to re- enter at an attractive BV discount. Low volumes driving sp.

Definitely a plausible hypothesis... I agree. My take: FIH and FFH are long plays with low relative risk due their discount to book value (0.65 and 0.85) respectively. Unfortunately, the larger market has not 'discovered' the Fairfax franchise in favor of chasing returns in trendy areas like bitcoin, tech, EV The good news is that ongoing BV discounts will always remain attractive for Prem to go Dutch. A competitive sink for cash vs new investments which may be hard to come by in this market. With them, there should be periodic reversion closer to BV. Let's see what 2022 brings.

Not sure this makes sense IMO. At the very least there is no data to support this theory. The idea of injection into muscle or fat tissue is to slow the absorption of a drug. Ultimately it is absorbing into the blood stream and circulating. Some compounds like Mercury and Nitro can be dermally absorbed, some through inhalation like Nicotine or carbon monoxide etc. Ultimately, most compounds get into the bloodstream. Could a sudden bolus of vaccine into the bloodstream cause clots? Possibly, but again, no evidence to support this to my knowledge. Personally I suspect, clot and myocarditis is due to autoimmune activation in susceptible patients. We see the same phenomenon with certain viral infections.

New 175M Credit Line. Acquisitions or buybacks I wonder... https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fairfax-india-completes-175-million-220900138.html

As it goes down, it becomes a better and better bet for auction buyback arbitrage IMO. Plus there is the Anchorage book value catalyst once it goes IPO.

Thanks very much SJ. Ill definitely keep my shares for now and go along for the ride.

Thanks for the explanation SJ. Correct me if I'm wrong... So I have a cost base of about $400 USD in a taxable account. So it seems that there is a negative tax impact to tender by experiencing a deemed dividend of about $248 usd per share. Otoh, I could potentially sell it for a capital gains of $100 should it hit $500. This seems much more favorable from a tax perspective.

SJ- So I presume you're going to go the route of the auction price tender as opposed to purchase price tender?

I have received the auction notification. It appears I am not smart enough to understand the pros and cons of the purchase price tender. It seems that the chances of there being a large difference between the upper end of the offer at $500 and the purchase price tender price being negligible. Is it really just a gamble and an option for someone desperate to rid themselves of shares?

That's certainly a valid play Viking. Otoh, the NCIB for Fairfax India is for up to 12k shares /day with a plan to purchase up to another 2 million outstanding shares until Sept 2022. Recently daily trading volumes have been falling- only about 20k shares traded today. I think this alone bodes well for share price support. Just a guess, but I think the airport is quite undervalued on the books. Once Anchorage goes public BV will rise significantly. With small trading volumes, it won't take much for share prices to rise. I know how much Prem loves FIH from his annual reports. Good chances for another Dutch auction soon, prior to the Anchorage IPO IMHO. Also one of the better plays in India for any investor. Of course, time will tell the story.