ICUMD

Complete speculation, but could be sellers of FFH in the Dutch Auction looking to re- enter at an attractive BV discount. Low volumes driving sp.

Definitely a plausible hypothesis... I agree. My take: FIH and FFH are long plays with low relative risk due their discount to book value (0.65 and 0.85) respectively. Unfortunately, the larger market has not 'discovered' the Fairfax franchise in favor of chasing returns in trendy areas like bitcoin, tech, EV The good news is that ongoing BV discounts will always remain attractive for Prem to go Dutch. A competitive sink for cash vs new investments which may be hard to come by in this market. With them, there should be periodic reversion closer to BV. Let's see what 2022 brings.

Not sure this makes sense IMO. At the very least there is no data to support this theory. The idea of injection into muscle or fat tissue is to slow the absorption of a drug. Ultimately it is absorbing into the blood stream and circulating. Some compounds like Mercury and Nitro can be dermally absorbed, some through inhalation like Nicotine or carbon monoxide etc. Ultimately, most compounds get into the bloodstream. Could a sudden bolus of vaccine into the bloodstream cause clots? Possibly, but again, no evidence to support this to my knowledge. Personally I suspect, clot and myocarditis is due to autoimmune activation in susceptible patients. We see the same phenomenon with certain viral infections.

New 175M Credit Line. Acquisitions or buybacks I wonder... https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fairfax-india-completes-175-million-220900138.html

As it goes down, it becomes a better and better bet for auction buyback arbitrage IMO. Plus there is the Anchorage book value catalyst once it goes IPO.

Thanks very much SJ. Ill definitely keep my shares for now and go along for the ride.

Thanks for the explanation SJ. Correct me if I'm wrong... So I have a cost base of about $400 USD in a taxable account. So it seems that there is a negative tax impact to tender by experiencing a deemed dividend of about $248 usd per share. Otoh, I could potentially sell it for a capital gains of $100 should it hit $500. This seems much more favorable from a tax perspective.

SJ- So I presume you're going to go the route of the auction price tender as opposed to purchase price tender?

I have received the auction notification. It appears I am not smart enough to understand the pros and cons of the purchase price tender. It seems that the chances of there being a large difference between the upper end of the offer at $500 and the purchase price tender price being negligible. Is it really just a gamble and an option for someone desperate to rid themselves of shares?

That's certainly a valid play Viking. Otoh, the NCIB for Fairfax India is for up to 12k shares /day with a plan to purchase up to another 2 million outstanding shares until Sept 2022. Recently daily trading volumes have been falling- only about 20k shares traded today. I think this alone bodes well for share price support. Just a guess, but I think the airport is quite undervalued on the books. Once Anchorage goes public BV will rise significantly. With small trading volumes, it won't take much for share prices to rise. I know how much Prem loves FIH from his annual reports. Good chances for another Dutch auction soon, prior to the Anchorage IPO IMHO. Also one of the better plays in India for any investor. Of course, time will tell the story.

Thanks SJ. That's very helpful.

Thank you for the recommendation SJ. I'll definitely do that. Does the same strategy work for Canadian Bank stocks that are interlisted on the NYSE like Royalbank? Will that provide a stream of US dividend income avoiding the currency exchange costs?

Definitely I'm watching closely. Already hold a large position. Further weakness if fear takes hold with the Omicron variant could push this to single digits again. Logical exit from FIH.U seems to be when Prem does his auctions. I suspect he will offer to buy back at 30% discount to BV ie. ~$18 So current values indicate a 50% discount to that. Not a bad return at current levels!

Has anyone tried to tender for the auction yet? Contacted my broker with intent to tender at $500. Was told the auction is not yet open. Also, was told that there will be probably be an option to receive funds in USD though my holdings are in Canadian funds. Can anyone verify this information? Thanks!

So let's fast forward to a hypothetical world where bitcoin is worth 100 M each... A handful of people will be extremely wealthy and powerful. Who are these people? Do they deserve that wealth? What will they do with that power to improve my life? Are they corrupt? Is this really a fair system where these people hold the power over governments? Is this a system that fosters job creation, innovation and progress? Why should I support such a system by buying bitcoin? As a public servant, what's in it for me? If I want to protect against currency risk and devaluation, why should I buy Bitcoin over say Berkshire or Google shares which are active assets and actually affect my life in a tangible way?

I applaud this tremendous performance. But I assure you, I am clapping very slowly for obvious reasons...

ETFs seem attractive for many these days due to relatively low fees vis a vis trying to create your own diversified portfolio. For non inclined, small portfolio investors, probably the easiest route. In this high liquidity environment, they have become massive. Since these are relatively new instruments, not sure how they will react in a major market turndown. The big question for me is how they will maintain liquidity if everyone heads for the exits at the same time. Could they snowball a correction? I dunno.

That's definitely a sound option. Having said that, i had originally purchased a few shares of FFH alongside a heavy heap of Fairfax India a few years ago. Interestingly, both have had the same dismal performance. Almost identical cagr. Let us see if the catalysts are now in place to see both rise. If the ncib is in place, the share price has not reacted at all.

Out of curiosity Viking, would you sell to a buyback at say $18? Or hold shares waiting for return to parity with BV?

Googl

IMHO, The bottom line is that cash is still the defacto intermediary. Not gold and not crypto. These need to ultimately be converted to cash. This allows banks to track you and the government to tax you. Interestingly, crypto is creating a whole economy from mining, businesses, trading etc. This is beneficial for productivity and taxation. Sure, trade in crypto for now. But try to escape the tax system, that's when things will get interesting. That's why I don't think a crypto to crypto bank/ trading system outside of government control has any long term prospect. That's not to say Governments won't start their own crypto or digital currency.

By liquid, I mean most transactions are conducted via cash. Gold needs to be converted first which may cause frictional losses over the short term.

In my eyes, cash and gold are currencies. Gold is inflation hedged due to inputs in obtaining it. Cash is more liquid. Both don't really have an intrinsic value since they don't do anything useful, though you could argue gold is slightly more valuable than cash in this regard since it takes effort to mine and purify it. IMO, the only reason to hold cash is to invest (purchase an asset, preferably cash generating), or spend (something that enhances your life in some way). Holding large amounts of cash without a goal to invest or spend is generally a bad idea due to inflation. Many wealthy people infact borrow to invest for this reason.

Let's see what happens once governments outlaw them, regulate them, tax them (capital gains) or make their own digital currency to compete with them. At a certain point sling the same course, I think crypto could become a destabilizing force economically, so escaping the above restrictions will become an impossibility. The rules surrounding crypto haven't yet been written.

I have a few gold and platinum coins I like to look at now and again. Platinum is probably a better bargain currently. Used to be a 'gold bug'. Now I just buy good companies. Would only buy Barrick if it crashes. Macroeconomic speculation has never worked for me.