Paarslaars

In one stock about 35%. The problem was I owned similar companies, bringing the total exposure to one particular industry to 60%. In the future I don't want to be exposed to one particular industry more than 25%. Not because I don't think you can do that when your conviction is high, but simply because I have gotten to know myself more as an investor and I personally feel like I don't handle big drawdowns like that well emotionally (I felt like shit, even though rationally I know everything is OK).

I believe this stems from, and this is also one of my pitfalls, people being too focused on annual portfolio returns.

Well I was down 37% last year. I held myself together knowing: - I still believe in my investments but my timing was bad. I am strongly convinced this will recover. It did teach me lessons on concentration though... - No impact on my personal life, job pays for everything and then some. - Still subtantially wealthier than most of my friends. - Most importantly, I have a wonderful family and group of friends so I love my life the way it is, getting much richer will be more convenient but not necessarily make me more happy. The only thing this drawdown does is postpone my early retirement with a few years. I just turned 38, the aim was retiring at 40 and I now shifted this to 45. Not the worst situation to be in...

APO has done the same by the way...

Yeah kinda the point Greg was making, stop caring about the macro side and just look for quality.

Yes you're right, he will still do it though but faces the consequences. How would he proceed then? Doesn't look like he is planning to increase taxes or impose austerity measures, so the only alternative is to print more money? Also seems bullish for risk-on assets, at least on the short term. I love learning more about macro, I find it quite interesting. Though I agree with the others here that making investment decisions on it is a game where I do not believe the retail investor has an edge...

My macro thesis is rather simple, the new fed chair has been given one clear mandate from Trump and that is to cut rates. Don't think oil rising is going to change that... and when rates go down, risk-on assets go up.

I struggled with the same thing but also was reminded of SD's advice not to hold O&G companies. Sold my IPCO and bought Nintendo with the proceeds. Still think it's an excellent company though, chances are just high that it will trade lower when oil inevitably comes down as Trump needs to score points for mid term elections.

Who knows what is happening, Iranians buying, Koreans rotating from KOSPI, people getting bullish because Trump is going against the banks in the Clarity act,... or everyone getting more optimistic with spring coming.

An illegal byproduct no? As far as I understand this is still market manipulation

Interesting read on Jane Street involvement in Terra and how they are manipulating BTC today.

You might want to zoom out. Below is the inverse for a longer time frame, you can see the recent 'jump' in gold value is but a small bump. And here is what happens when gold tops and the money rotates: I have no doubt we'll be having a very different discussion on this in 1-2 years but for now, let's give the bears their moment.

You might find STND interesting.

Cob&f has not been flooded by BTC fans for years mate... hell the MSTR thread is more popular with BTC bears like Dalal these days.

Well where do we think rates are headed now?

Where is the 60k mining cost coming from? Sources I find indicate it is more at 70k:

Well that looks like normal policy to me... not sure why anyone would expect anything different. That said, you think Trump won't bail out his sons and his own company? Anyway BTC down to 70k, basically trading at mining cost. Historically this has always indicated a bottom, though reversal can take a few months. We've also +/- reached last cycle's top, which is also a typical bottom indicator. That said, all predictions are typically wrong... let's see what happens.

Ah yes Burry, the broken clock that struck right once. Wasn't he short PLTR and then when it went up decided to stop his fund because he doesn't understand the market anymore? I think the fact that BTC is seeing terrible sentiment and one of its longest downstreaks in history, while remaining above its pre-election high, is rather strong. His comments on strategy are also irrelevant: If BTC drops below Saylors purchase price, it does not close him off to markets. He is nowhere near insolvency and has enough cash to cover 2 years of dividends. If the market keeps its confidence then STRC will trade up to 100$ and he can issue. If I'm not mistaken, MSTR bitcoin stack was underwater during the 2022 bear market as well, they did just fine: Just more FUD in my opinion.

I'm still long SILJ (with leaps), seems rather contrarian now everyone thinks silver has topped. Miners will still be printing money though, doesn't matter if Silver is 70$, 100$ or 130$, their cost basis is around 30$.

Also CPNG leaps.

Not sure this is the bottom but I don't see how we get back to $55k...

Peter Schiff and his victory laps could indeed mark the top of gold and bottom of BTC. That said, -30% in silver is not normal... especially on an option expiry day. That is a clear sign some bank was about to go belly up and needed a crash to cover their position. I expect this will reverse soon, physical silver in Shanghai is way higher and continues to imply high demand for the metal.

Rolled half of my 30$ SILJ leaps into 54$ ones, took profit (200%) on the other half. Will probably use the profits for CPNG, djeez what happened there.

They probably will but the question is has anything not been redacted other than Clinton.