Paarslaars

Same. Also small position in some IREN leaps, who knows.

This is in response to a large increase in muslim immigration recently, who are refusing to accept local values and are imposing their way of living. It starts like this: And ends up like this: No country has ever become better by allowing this, just look at Europe... It is good that Japan can nip this in the butt fast. However this is maybe for the politics thread...

It's a strange environment, right before the bull run all the BTCTCs have cratered... While miners like IREN have skyrocketted. I am still a big fan of MTPLF even though they dropped the ball with their PIPE recently, shorts got the better of them. If you are unsure about these companies, IBIT options are also a good bet.

Well regarding the merger, it just means the market values ASST at 1.6 and hence SMLR at 32. This represents the ASST value the Semler shareholders are getting. SMLR traded at a discount to NAV because of overhang from their legacy business I believe, SQNS is now post-PIPE unlock in the same situation. DDC is another example trading at 0.65x NAV. These companies have lost faith from investors that they can consistently increase BTC/share. They need to change this or they become acquisitions targets. SQNS has started buybacks to continue to benefit shareholders while they are below NAV.

1.6$ was the price of the PIPE on ASST that still needs to be unlocked, hence the spread. If you want to see what happens when huge PIPE deals unlock, have a look at what happened to SQNS (PIPE was at 14$ adjusted).

Indeed, it was specifically designed for this...

Ow yeah all that medicine that the entire US population can definitly afford.

Yes in a country run (lobbied) by the elite, they chose to favor economic growth over purchasing power... Since Nixxon took the US off the Gold Standard, assets have skyrocketted while the dollar has lost 90% of its purchasing power. People's savings have been wiped out... Meanwhile the economy is basically flat while measured gold, all that growth is an illusion, it just masks monetary decay.

Feel free to elaborate on that one, considering the first BTC payment was done >10 years ago and BTC payments are still occurring daily...

Exactly, there was a time when you could settle your taxes in gold and there will come a time when you can settle them in BTC.

I can buy those on IBKR.

Typical metrics are BTC yield or days to cover mNAV. Basically why would any of these companies trade at a premium to their BTC holdings (mNAV)? Well they need to be able to increase BTC/share, this way mNAV per share goes up higher than the BTC value alone and this makes it worth holding a bitcoin treasury company over just bitcoin. BTC yield defines the % of BTC per share added and days to cover mNAV refers to the number of days needed to bring the 'premium to mNAV' to 0 (assuming share price remains stable). Taking Metaplanet as an example: They double their BTC holdings roughly every 60 days, above you can see how accretively this was to the BTC/share metric. This year alone BTC per share has gone x5.8... This means if you bought Metaplanet at 5.8x mNAV and it comes crashing down to 1x mNAV which sceptics like @Spekulatius predict, you would still be breakeven after <8 months or double your investment after 5 quarters. That said, Metaplanet is currently trading at 2x mNAV (historically low) which would allow you to +/- tripple your investment after 8 months (assuming they maintain their current BTC yield). All the bears could be right in the long run about share price going towards 1x mNAV, though the short thesis is rather flawed (Chanos is an idiot You don't need an mNAV premium, as long as BTC per share goes up, eventually mNAV increases enough to wipe out the shorts even if the premium could go to 1 (which it won't as long as BTC yield >0). If BTC goes up in value alone (we are still in the bull run phase), mNAV goes up and shorts are getting squeezed. Works both ways though, if BTC goes down so does mNAV. Wouldn't want to hold these during a BTC bear year, they need solid financials to survive this. Some shorts are going long BTC, short treasury company to compensate for this. But these companies are very volatile and the cost to borrow shares is quite high (up to 200%!), if they are not right within a limited time frame, they are getting squeezed. Feel free to ask if anything is unclear but perhaps better in PM or the crypto thread so I don't polute this thread any further with my non-value investing jargon.

Finished switching my MSTR position to Metaplanet. More upside due to higher yield, geographical advantage and top notch management. Still think MSTR will do well but I am convinced Metaplanet will do better.

Bessent announced the US will not be buying bitcoin. Probably a good thing in the long run for BTC, not for the US though.

Because it is NOT a BTC treasury. They jumped on the band wagon without proper commitment nor execution.

Good point, my company doesn't even allow me to invest from that pension fund.

'YUGE'

More 3350.

Sold a bit of Nintendo today... Hurts but 3350 got so cheap. Still over 10% position.

More Metaplanet.

That H1B visa keeping the US relevant.

Nuclear FUD, that's what this market was missing! Never a dull moment.

Jamie has to believe in whatever his clients want him to believe. Not sure he hopped on the train yet but he is willing to make money off of it.

Alts will crash for sure, for BTC I believe the volatility will reduce each cycle but the 4y cycle will not break due to ETFs.

The key here is BTC yield, not size. Metaplanet is reaching BTC yields of 300%+, MSTR only has about 25%. (this is the annual % at which they increase BTC per share) BTC yield warrants a premium over mNAV (NAV of BTC holdings). Metaplanet typically varies between 3x mNAV and 7x mNAV (currently around 2.97 so a steal). At the current rate, Metaplanet covers their entire 'premium' over the NAV of their BTC holdings in roughly 4 months time. MSTR takes about 23 months to do that and it's only trading at an mNAV multiple of 1.79. Metaplanet currently holds about 16k bitcoin vs 600k MSTR, they are still a long way from being hindered by their size in accumulating more bitcoins. Additionally, the japanese market appears to work in their favor due to high BTC taxes (50% vs only 20% for stocks) as well as more interesting share issuing options. Metaplanet also carefully protects their mNAV range by not issuing shares at the lower range of their mNAV premium, contrary to MSTR who initially said not to issue shares below 2x mNAV but are continiously doing so at the moment.