Paarslaars

I think his crimes just make it an easy excuse. Venezuela is just a pawn in the war between US and China for rare earth metals.

I still believe this isn't about oil. They want the minerals... Silver is becoming absolutely critical for future tech and China just crippled the supply with export limitations on refined silver.

Discount to NAV needs to be substantial and consistent to make selling BTC for buybacks a viable accumulation strategy. He won't do it for at 0.95NAV nor if he thinks his buybacks will immediatly close the discount.

Ah yes, time to face the piper... my worst performing year so far. 2021 47% 2022 -4% 2023 76% 2024 23% 2025 -37% Basically made one big mistake this year, took a huge position in August in one of my favorite stocks (metaplanet) after it went down 50%. Turned out, it was going down much further... some lessons to be learned here about risk management and averaging down into positions. That said, I willing decided to buy leveraged BTC positions and so I have to be able to handle the volatility, still think I'm right on this one and 2026 will have to prove that.

Good to know, we can use gold as the canary in the coal mine. Though I am wondering if silver will still behave as a monetary metal, with industrial use over 60% and it being absolutely essential for EVs, solar cells, GPU/TPUs, etc... and the industry is very price inelastic so not sure if this is coming down soon.

ETF: I own SILJ calls (the junior miners ETF). I work in a metals recycling company and we've seen lease rates jump up a lot for silver (also platina). While I believe silver gets the same benefit from the current trade where countries other than the US are diversifying away from the dollar via precious metals, it also has a substantial use in the electronics industry which is growing.

Personally prefer silver miners, more underlying supply crunch because of industrial purposes. Gold is just going up because BRICS are buying... they could dump just as easily.

I'm going to preface this by saying that my prediction was dead wrong in 2025 so don't listen to me. My expectation as highest performing are: - Metaplanet (bitcoin proxy): almost everything is near ATH (S&P, QQQ, gold, etc...) while bitcoin is off 30%-40%. Additionally when rates come down and QE ramps up, this looks like a great setup. HPC miners could also do very well in this environment (CLSK, CIFR, IREN, BITF). - SILJ (I like the jan '27 calls): on the contrary to gold, silver actually has a strong industrial use and a shortage is now clearly visible, lease rates have also jumped up quite a bit. I expect silver to outperform, junior miners look like the right play. Sorry none of the above are value investing ideas. In my core portfolio I will stick to my long term staples: - Nintendo - FFH - APO - JOE

You'll get wiped on the Tesla position for sure.

Curious about this. On the one hand you are correct, two smaller BTC treasuries have already sold some. On the other hand, I see good financial stability with the larger ones, so I am not sure if they will be forced sellers anytime soon. What I believe makes a bigger difference is the lack of buying. BTC treasuries were huge buyers in H1 this year, that demand has somewhat dried up since only MSTR is still making substantial purchases. I find the BRICS currency thing interesting, how would the US fight against this? Would it be in their best interest to sell their gold reserves? This could crash gold prices and cause a big blow to the BRICS countries. At the same time it would be a budget neutral way to obtain more BTC. I am not saying it is likely to happen but sure would have some benefits to it.

I think they try to explain movements where BTC is acting differrently than previous. Like not following the 4y cycle or going down in Oct & Nov which are typically the best months. Could be just as coping mechanism. But I agree 30%-40% drawdowns are still to be expected, don't think we see 80% anymore with institutions loading up but we will see.

https://dgt10011.substack.com/p/the-one-chart-that-explains-why-bitcoin?r=4e7rq6&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true This explains in part the BTC IPO fase. Forced selling from whales due to covered calls being assigned.

Deep underwater... you mean 19% while we are in a dip? I think that is fine and certainly not the first time, they were underwater in April this year or August '24 as well. I don't see 50k USD for BTC happening anytime soon but you never know. While I won't claim to have your experience in macro trading SD, I can't be other than bullish when BTC has reached ATH's in a QT environment. I think 130k is more likely next rather than 50k... PS: Metaplanet has started issuing preferreds now. This limits the need for share issuance but yes also brings along dividend obligations.

Care to elaborate on that? I see no case for that. Metaplanet is financially sound, no need to sell BTC anytime soon. Also the US injects liquidity based on large institutions asking for it via repo, don't think this has anything to do with BTC treasuries. With QT ending it is likely only more liquidity is coming, chances of rate cuts in Dec have also gone up go 80%.

Jup the great debasement going strong.

You and Parsad do make a good cases for not being fully invested and just waiting for your quality companies to have dips.

Exactly, and this is why China is massively buying gold and dumping US debt...

It has happened frequently that the mining cost was higher than the BTC price, didn't seem to have that much of an impact. That said, I'm not sure that far off in the future BTC will be used for daily transactions. It might be a bit slow for that... more likely tokens are used backed by BTC and banks will transaction between themselves in BTC.

I believe Saudi Arabia or UA also doubled their BTC exposure in their sovereign wealth fund. The transition from early adaptors to institutions is clearly going on, likely we see slow gradual uptrend for years rather than the typical bull-bear cycles from the past.

The question is: is this a structural shift in demand VS supply or is this simply a short dip due to a lack of liquidity from the shutdown? The latter should be reversing shortly. Additionally when QT stops on the 1st of Dec, potential rate cuts, etc... macro environment should favor BTC. There is a shift going on though, long term holders are selling while institutions are buying, seems like a good step in the adoption curve. Congratz on the trade though!

Thought I bought BITF calls 2 weeks ago, bit mistakenly bought BTCS instead. Down 30% instead of up 300%... Just my fkn luck.

Yeah but what for... it's all just postering before a negotiation, we have seen his playbook before... why are people still taking this seriously? Feels like Trump has a couple of friends with puts about to expire soon.

Here in Europe everything going as always... not much to do around the economy right now.

Yeah I kept looking for reasons for this drop, can't all just be because Pauline left?