Gregmal

Yea, I think this highlights why maybe Dinar and Dalal should get a welcome back as well. Because its still very rampant and @Parsad does his best, but at the same time when the refs call em as they see em, how they see em is important. 100% a lot of the same antagonistic or troll behavior from one side routinely gets through the sieves. Whether it orange man stuff or just constant whining and calling policy(IE stuff like tariffs) stupid with the analytical backing of a 5 year old....that stuff isn't policed the same as when Dinar or Dalal hit back, often with more detail and backing than presented on the other side.

Sazerac isn’t dropping prices they’re just increasing supply which is a wild card. I don’t think big bourbon otherwise really competes with the craft segment or whatever they call it. It’s a strange space, but I do agree most of their brands are garbage. But garbage in the alcohol space works for some. I don’t think anyone buying Penelope would ever buy Jim Beam and vice versa. Same with stuff like JD.

Don’t need one. If we re anywhere near trough on the cycle as far as spirits and American whiskey go, current multiple is a bargain. It’s the gateway for entrepreneurs into the space as well. Saying this as someone who had it as a short from $110 til recently. Earnings and guidance are good enough here. Same as everyone and their mother says “if I can get it 30% cheaper I’d prefer that”, but grand scheme of things you’re getting decent value at these levels, with upside from eventual recovery or an acquisition not really factored in.

MGPI

Most people don’t see or imagine stuff until after it happens. Then it goes into the framework everyone uses and down the road gets explained away as something that made sense/was obvious despite no one seeing it that way in real time. Owning residential RE that every hack expert already claimed was in a bubble through an aggressive rate hike campaign? Owning the most expensive stocks that were also said to be a bubble into a pandemic where most of the world is forced into shutting down? That is two in just the past five years. Degradation of government paper vs comparable choices is hardly that farfetched, really just matters how events play out. And either way, in most scenarios where 10 year reverts to 2.5-3% I’m not seeing how this doesn’t work marvelously. Until then I just ignore it/make fun of myself for owning bonds.

A lot of it too short term comes down to what people believe, not what reality is. There’s so much TDS out there I can see it playing out. Oil clearly wasn’t worth -$32 a barrel or whatever in 2020, but it happened. A good chunk of the market, especially rubber stamping allocators are drunk on establishment thinking. Just look at all the doom posts here; Canadians talking about partnering up with supposed big bad China, etc. If the next recession comes shortly and the “US is doomed” narrative takes hold, I doubt spreads widen. It could get quite fun.

I own some of that stuff anyway and we’ve already seen scenarios where there’s some convergence that blew peoples minds. People scoffed at the MF idea in 2021, and in 2022/3 we saw cap rates trade at or in some cases lower than 10 year and FF rate. Things change, the world is unpredictable; I don’t need to be exactly 100% correct at every turn, just directionally accurate enough to put points on the board consistently and through the cycle.

Yea essentially. Think we re getting to a point where people may view stuff like Apple/Meta/Berkshire types as more reliable

What if you believe, like I might, that spread vs treasuries collapses? I play a bit with the options, but don’t really care to try to time this. If my timing is off, I lose money. I’d prefer to just continue investing in totally normal state, including owning stuff that I’d fully expect to get whacked short term.

Yup. I hate bonds and feel like a pussy do it, but think owning 20-40 year FANG stock debt is pure money here. You get the gradual grind lower plus the 5-6% yield and when shit hits the fan probably 30% upside when the Fed and market participants panic; that can then be swiveled into stonks. First market short I’ve come across where I get paid to have it on.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4413666-crude-oil-tumbles-to-ytd-lows-as-tariffs-worries-lead-to-plunging-consumer-confidence#source=first_level_url%3Ahome|section%3Aindices|section_asset%3Alatest_news|line%3A1 I love how people think tariffs will create inflation! See ya on the long bond suckers!

Those things are worth a pretty high price.

Wonder what @Blake Hampton thinks?

Nah, inflation is done. Ken Fisher had a good piece on it the other day. Don’t fall for the same rhetoric from the same people whom always see inflation and crisis looming. Had the same exact circus this time last year about it. We were told of all these things and oh look, oil can’t even hold $70. Tariffs and sanctions and that big ole nothing burger war in Ukraine and all.

Ever want to see this problem at its infant state, just look at how HOAs work. They generally start small and benevolent. Purpose seems simple enough, to protect homeowners. Over time the boards get cluttered with egomaniacs and people whom seek something personally satisfying from the position. And before you know it, they exist to basically bully homeowners and curry favor for those entrenched. I’m completely unaware of any important government agency where people are working for free, so right off the bat, Elons got more respect in his endeavor here than we should grant those at the bloated agencies he’s working to make redundant.

Yup. And therein lies the issue. Ask most Americans, and all these "agencies" are totally useless when you go out and seek their assistance. But more often than not, when you want to do something or be left alone, then they show up and start making your life more difficult. Not how it's supposed to work.

See this is the larger problem with why the government cockroach problem will never be solved. There's no perfect solution, but it needs to stop growing. And even when people admirably take on this task, there's still all these obstructionists. Is there an orderly way to do it? Probably. But guess what, there's also orderly ways to build roads and bridges and the government has clearly demonstrated they can't even do that stuff efficiently either.

That's because poor people don't really pay that much in taxes to begin with. In terms of actual dollars, it's pretty low to begin with. Which is a further reason the "tax cuts for the rich" narrative is disingenuous. They're really the only ones paying taxes in terms of %s. The middle class gets "screwed" the most in terms of lifestyle impairment caused by government, but if we want to get down to it, Trumps tax policies are really the only ones that have come close to sniffing out real tax policy improvement. Every time a democrat gets near policy it's one of two things, outright rob high earners, or raise taxes for everyone. No party, has ever really done anything but pick the pocket of self employed folks either, which would IMO be a common sense area to start if you really want to encourage folks to earn their way out.

Yea it’s quite incredible the narrative and how people are suckers for it. The most aggressive move against the “rich” folks over the last 2 decades was the cap of SALT taxes. Now you have the same guy who sponsored that talking about taxing sports team owners and eliminating carried interest while completely zeroing out taxes of tips. Yet we keep getting this “tax cuts for the rich” groveling from the folks that want to just sweepingly raise tax rates across the board on everyone….

Think for yourself. Investigate people’s incentives. Don’t underestimate their emotions. Rest of it is easy. Maybe I could add in one more, don’t get all personally invested in the tabloid mill…

Idk there’s two people I’m aware of, whom have this magic power to make some folks just go absolutely mental at the first whiff of a mouse fart sized piece of potentially negative press. I’ve never really seen this sort of stuff in my life, with the exception of those two people. Pure hysteria. Then we step back from the derangement and it’s like “oh his ex has something negative to say, a history of being attention seeking, and also a history of bad mouthing him”…and folks act like their shit wouldn’t stink too. Or that there couldn’t be more at play here than one quick Twitter snippet.

lol sure. Some twitter allegations from a bitter ex, and just like that, hook, line, sinker….

Yawn. Same people whom always whine about same things whining about same things.

Haha yea I’m somewhat joking around but I think trading around the core to a certain degree is helpful. Ive had a ton of stuff that’s worth having a position in but too much capital tied up in stuff I already like, so perhaps its boredom driving me but I want to own a few more things and ringing the register a bit to do so accomplishes that. I would be pissed if Nintendo went back to $12-14 and I didn’t at least have a little to show for it.

Well how many of you guys have Nintendo weighted north of 20%? Like I said in another thread, if it’s a 5% position, then yea what’s the point in trimming? But at larger levels sometimes it’s just about managing the size.