Gregmal

Exactly. Everybody has been conditioned to get all dramatic and turn every little thing into a VERY, VERY, BIG DEAL! I wonder how many people are currently aware of all the global taxes and tariffs that influence everyday things that are currently unnoticed? But now of course, “new” and “Trump” and our heads need to explode.

Well, one it’s a choice, and two, it’s a horrible way to live.

Nobody wants Canadian whiskey. The real tragedy is south of the border with tequila!

Remember, the solution we heard, was to bring in an 80 year old career politician with dementia who picks fights with our enemies, provokes and enables wars, and hob nobs on the taxpayers dime with our “allies”. Yup, so this is why we don’t even acknowledge certain MSM voices or naive followers anymore. They blew their credibility, they’re done. We don’t care what they have to say anymore. Now bring on the tax cuts!

This is exactly the kind of media manufactured nonsense people bought into hook, line and sinker during Trumps first term, and it’s exactly what got him elected again. Eventually enough people wisened up and realized they were being taken for suckers. That said, there’s still clearly a decent chunk of folks whom believe all this stuff, so all we can do is be amused by it.

Lmfao just recalling all the “concerned citizens” of COBF from 2016-2020….of course the next 4 years of disasters had far fewer worries.

Just buy American made or suck it up. Always so much drama, let people freak out and dump their stocks Monday, who cares? How many times do we need to see these movies and how they always play out?

Apple so overvalued...must move...to...cash.

Bump. #nocashflowanalysisftw

Idk investing for a living is kinda like being a treasure hunter. I enjoy the journey and the fruits of it.

Now he’s pumping NBIS, with a $60 target. Does this mean he’s gonna sell at $28-30? Funny seeing how different and toned down all his verbiage is now too. Can’t we just be honest and shoot straight from the beginning?

No, interest rates aren’t nearly as correlated to inflation as people lazily assume. Japans had inflation above rates for more years than not, in fact being negative with +inflation a bunch. Even in isolation this totally wipes out the argument a lot of people tried making years ago about just “low rates leads to inflation”. Meanwhile here we re at 4+ FF and 2.x reported inflation, and some are actually talking about hikes lol. Additionally, the Fed set rates really aren’t related to typical inflationary issues because the average person can’t borrow at those rates. Unless we believe that oh credit card rates going from 28% to 33% really killed inflation. Or that oh people ain’t gonna drive anymore.

Japan is living proof our “raise rates to fight inflation” rhetoric is completely unsubstantiated academic garbage.

HIMS starter at the open.

I guess maybe if theres a dedicated macro day trading thread or something, but otherwise it seems dumb. This sort of volatility for semis isnt that wild. If nothing else maybe what would pique my interest is the relationship between tech and rates. Definitely been a correlation of late.

This is the same behavior from the TOP thread that closed. Every few percent down everyone wants to talk about it. Because it’s warranted after all those bullshit gains on the way up.

It’s definitely not helping with inflation or getting folks desperate enough to lower prices by giving them 5% freebies/handouts. And it’s certainly not reducing valuations or multiples. Seems like the only ones surprised are the academics. It’s fairly obvious why, but I guess for many reasons it’s easier to just lazily whine about bubbles or valuations. Higher rates just make the biggest impact things more expensive and incentivizes those whom already have assets to do less with them.

Contrary to what a lot of people think, inflation is largely caused by short term disruptions that in time alleviate. Think commodities, you spike, then production adjusts, prices drop. Think housing, prices warrant more building, more building puts a cap on prices. The Fed really has nothing to do with this in a productive way anymore, which is what’s even more amusing about the idea that they need to adhere to this “mandate”.

This quote also, if I’m not mistaken, also references the buy and hold aspect, in terms of letting your assets work. Not trading every news point or sitting on cash forever.

You can probably make 10-15% a year just shorting OTM puts on stuff you want to own but think is too expensive lol.

The other problem is one we’ve seen from time to time on here, and that’s sitting around playing the “guess what the Fed is gonna do” game thinking it’s some macro fortune tellers crystal ball.

Yup, it’s about putting in the work and being able to find advantages. And even if that fails, you can always just trade yourself into a decent return. In fact, for people whom are allergic to actually investing, trading is probably the way to go. I’ve never seen the point in sitting around doing absolutely nothing while underinvested and pretending like it’s the smart thing to do. I get guys like Klarman and Einhorn, because they’re already wealthy, but the average investor or fund manager? What’s your consolation prize? The Einhorns and Klarmans hob knob like billionaires while masquerading as successful investors, and periodically get to write condescending know it all letters making excuses, but everyone else? You simply have to keep your day job longer?

Much like @james22 sounding a whole lot like @Blake Hampton 12 years ago on this board, I am quite certain if you shared some of the details and personal experiences you had that you shared with many of us(I’ll refrain from hash-tagging like 15 COBF members here) on the yatch at the St Joe AGM, many would appreciate your journey and take that wisdom with more than a grain of salt. It was awesome and quite entertaining to say the least.

Well a solid value pick IMO could be BIDU.

No, this is the market. A security is not worth some easily derived value based on a formula you read in an easily accessible textbook. It’s worth very simply what somebody is willing to pay for it.