Gregmal

It’s true though, they’re all playing us. The two party system is really just a one party system.

Trump was pretty decisively elected because of two issues, the economy, and crime/border issues. I guarantee the border and crime issues look significantly improved over the next 2-4 years. The economy is really what he’s gambling with. The super gamble is perhaps banking on some softness very early on to get rates down. Should be interesting.

It’s inconsequential noise and won’t stick; I can live with or without it. I’m not in the business of getting my nickers in a bunch every time some politician wants to make a scene. See this is another thing people don’t get. It’s something the marketers and newsletter macro guys love…selling everyone on this idea that you need to have an opinion and be invested in every little thing that happens. It’s not really true. You can absolutely pick you own battles and more often than not you can choose to have none at all. If people want to bid down assets tomorrow because of it, please, be my guest. If people want to alter their lifestyles because of it, please, be my guest. I’m just gonna go about today the same way I went about yesterday and that will be the same way I go about tomorrow.

I didn’t say that. Where did I say I support the tariffs? You all seem to be totally lost because you’re used to the good ole boy club negotiating style where they all go to some yuppy summit or super exclusive location and drink cognac while figuring out how to continue the untenable status quo and package it so the little guy thinks he’s got a chance. That’s been Trudeaus game. It was Biden career. It was Obama and Bush’s game. It’s definitely not how real world business gets done. Trump wants something from Mexico, Canadas at times been a bit of a freeloader, he uses one to get what he wants from the other. He has the leverage and this is literally one of the bigger ticket items he ran on. It’s all very practical and easy to see. I don’t have to agree with something to see it or understand it.

Do you know how negotiations work?

Well then the problem I guess is what people choose to believe. We had 50%+ of our country thinking there was some Russian Collusion conspiracy going on for the better part of 4 years too. We had 65% of the country thinking you were a pariah and didnt deserve to have any rights if you questioned an experimental vaccine that didnt actually duo what they told us it did. Media is a powerful thing. My condolences.

Instead of being all whiny why not get on board with how Tobi Lutke sees things? Or let me guess.. now he's some asshole too cuz the message doesnt fit what we wanna hear?

People and governments are two different things. The Canada/US shouldn't last long. Then again you guys have Trudeau so IDK.

If this does not end soon, and the outcomes are not desired, new leaders will be elected on both sides of both borders. Unless you buy into the NYT narrative about Trump upending the constitution and being in power for the next 5 terms. Then yea, I guess you gotta move to Cana.....duh.

Liberal leaders: Trump is Hitler Trump elected: let’s go to Mar a lago. Let’s cozy up to him. Liberal leaders: China is evil Tariffs: Let’s do more business with China lol The thing that’s great about Trump is he really exposed the system for what it is…and that’s largely a massive bunch of elitist babies self dealing and lying to the public to push their own agendas.

Sure but the 70s inflation was very different than it is today. Problem is many people only have the 70s to “study” and to a hammer…..everything is a nail. Core inflation/deflation in the unhealthy manner is a natural imbalance of supply and demand and that’s why it seems so scary to so many. The kind that’s not scary is artificially manipulated crap like this. Or stuff that’s directly contributed to stuff like a supply chain. Fix the supply chain, problem solved. Workout the tariff issues. Problem solved. The reason they went ape shit on rates in the 89s/70s is that they had no clue where the root cause was, and honestly, listening to them today, 50 years later, they still don’t have a clue .

Yup you give some of that back temporarily. Then the corporate tax rate gets cut. Eventually tariffs are sorted out, much ado about nothing.

It’s been totally jaw dropping the past several years hearing people discuss inflation and seeing how pure ignorance just rules the day. Good economy? Inflation. People have jobs? Inflation? Getting raises? Inflation. Rate cuts? Inflation. Tariffs? Inflation. lol for fucks sake.

Short term rates probably go higher because thats the natural knee jerk assumption that the talking heads and academics have been feeding everyone. First move is usually wrong though.

Only in a very simplistic and first level thinking kinda way. Its just gonna crater demand and push people to alternative products. This was actually one of Trumps stated goals, to get people to buy made in America. Besides...havent all the experts been telling us how weak the economy is? It would have to be pretty durable to eat that bump, but even still, its only effecting specific segment, not the entire economy, so its not going to massively throw off inflation readings for that long, if at all. Like homebuilders are already seeing low volume...theyre not pushing it off on the consumer, they'll eat it for a little bit, maybe the stonk bois try to use this as an excuse to bid them down and scare everyone off like they did in 2022, but again, it'll just be a short term manipulative thing, not some huge structural issue.

Plunging the country into an expensive trade war and yet people like Blake are predicting inflation? Lmfao….its gonna be short term, and if the country can’t handle it guess where rates go? If they can, it’s overblown much like all the other supposed horror stories we were told were right around the corner the last 5 years, that yup…never actually showed up. Trumps MO with Canada is likely to deliver on a stupid campaign promise and then use a publicity win to gouge Mexico.

I swear sometimes I think you post here just for the amusement of everybody. The unwavering belief in the idea that you have it all figured out and that everything just goes the way the textbook teaches is remarkable. However the trailing returns tied to such beliefs I would imagine are quite paltry.

Canada will end up contributing more money to defense spending and that will probably be it.

Sounds like we better get back to university and study up then! But hey, maybe JPow can channel some sort of voodoo spell from his living room couch in 2026.

Well, the Shopify guy at least gets it. Why must people always get so emotional?

And that would be…China lol? All because they offer cheaper goods? Instead of just upping your defense spending and working out some win/win surface level deal for the press? That would be awfully contradictory to all of the fear mongering we ve been fed over the years about the evils of the Chinese. Hmmm, not a lot of sense being made here.

Like you guys realize huge portions of places like Oregon, NY and California want to, and have the numbers to completely free themselves from states that don’t represent them, and yet, because of the bureaucracy, can’t? Yet Trumps just gonna snap his fingers and proof Canada is now a new state? That is literally the dumbest and most illogical fear I’ve ever heard voiced; more so even then when the kids think there’s boogeymen under their beds.

Why would the party in power take an action that virtually guarantees that they are never in power again? At best, it would be a Puerto Rico scenario, and that wouldn’t qualify as a 51st state.

Don’t get so manipulated emotionally. As cooler heads have already mentioned, Canada becoming a state is a 0 probability event, even if Canada itself wanted to do it.

Well, maybe if all the experts and talking heads didn’t destroy all their credibility over the past decade…. As mentioned earlier, they’ve all clearly demonstrated the inability to refrain from lying or being dishonest about anything Trump, so most people just write them off entirely now.