Gregmal

Nah I know your game and you’re an outlier. A true type 2. 90% of people are type one and 90% whom are type one think they’re type two. And they repeatedly get curbstomped during these “episodes”. So much confidence during the first week or two in April and then the after the fact gloats about making a few % on “the dip” and now being back to fully cashed up because of the obviousness of the impending doom….nope. Sorry suckers.

Bbbbbbut what about the folks in cash during such uncertain times! Not fair!

LOL. Panicking....fails to pays off again....this time it took a whopping 6 weeks.....some folks just refuse to learn.

Bitcoin since 3/2020 when cash really became doubly trashy….speaks for itself. What 25x in 5 years? During which we ve supposedly had 2 big post covid “crashes” and like 5 recessions….

CTO is probably worth a look

Again, if you've been an active member here for more than a few years you've seen it first hand and at least can tip your hat and say it warrants some respect. Saying no it doesnt count anymore than a year to two of bombastic and incorrect macro calls is kinda silly.

I think it’s pretty easy here, especially with the regular posters, to generally get to a respectable level of understanding about their investment process over time, based on posts. Both in terms of quality, process, and results. That’s the whole point here. If one’s noticed @james22 over the years, I think it’s easy to. Blake, like many of us have when we were younger, is stuck in a classic smart young guy state of mind. And from both the posts(which I cited above and he even requoted) and our own experience behaving that way, can probably arrive at the conclusion that the results suck.

I think the debating Blake’s attitude thing is getting a little long in the tooth. It’s pretty simple and not even a Blake thing. Ones credibility is based on a track record and judged by what we have. Someone who’s posted a dozen ideas with a 70% hit rate and decent but unspectacular insight is valuable. Someone who’s posted a dozen buys in the what are you buying thread, with zero analysis but an 83% hit rate, is valuable. Someone who’s made bombastic forecasts, provided little in terms of how to generate alpha, and largely been wrong on what’s they’ve communicated, can rightfully get some criticism for being dismissive or arrogant. The fact that he’s 23 is irrelevant in a more macro way, but I think it’s brought up because he’s shared it, and because many of us have been in a similar pair of shoes as him. It’s equally as wrong sitting here saying Prem Watsa has more money and credibility than 99% of folks and should be immune to criticism, or that because you went to a good school, have lots of money, and are old, that you’re immune as well. I’ve brought up the example before, but @james22a decade ago on this forum was citing Hussman, talking up cash, and quite pessimistic. Not a whole lot different than what Blake is doing today. Today he(James) has made a fortune on crypto and specifically Microstrategy. That evolution shows tremendous growth, willingness to learn and adapt to markets, and embodies the no called strikes, wait for your pitch thing Buffett talks about. That warrants tons of respect and credibility.

Look at it in an extreme. A dollar in the roaring 1920s bought you a few acres of land in South Florida. Today a dollar doesn’t even get you through a toll on the Florida Turnpike. Short term, it just depends on your skills as a trader. The reason it’s a poor bet for macro folks looking to invest, is that much of the opportunities are rather fleeting. Look at GFC, Covid, rate hike hysteria, most of these things start resolving in the markets within what’s considered a short term(less than 12 month) timeline. Whereas when you’re evaluating macro, you’re generally thinking in terms of events that take much longer to play out. So I don’t know many, whom in March, April, May 2020 whom were bearish pre COVID, that were backing up the truck a few months later. Look at how bearish folks here were in late 2022, and absolutely in early 2023. Essentially the more variables you try to predict the harder it gets; or the more decisions your investing strategy requires you to make, the more chances you have to fuck up. If you just find something with a fundamental advantage and a moat, and manage the position, trading around the core I call it, it’s so much easier. Especially when longer term it comes to tax management. Most short term traders fail to mention how obscene the tax bill is. One of Berkshires greatest advantages has been the deferral of taxes on massive gains on many of their equity holdings.

It’s been going on now for almost a decade. Buffett hoarding cash isn’t some phenomenon that started last year as some grand market call.

Yup. This is a regular occurrence with the cash crowd. They get their opportunities, and still rather keep holding onto their cash.

Generally speaking yes. But I think with enough data points you can evaluate things on a scale with different weightings. The lowest for instance is a perma bear who’s short something on fundamentals that then goes down for macro reasons. Market goes up or down both short term and long term. Essentially a 50/50 shot either way. They’ll claim a victory but over time you can see if the logic(as you said) is valid. Look at more complex stuff where maybe there’s 3-4 or 5-6 variables that require inference. The more “calls” the short seller makes, the odds change from 50/50 to something more substantive in terms of arriving at a conclusion about competency. But when you make calls about stuff with 5/6+ variables and over time have been wrong about the 50/50 80% of the time and the 5/6 underlying assumptions prove to be wrong 75% of the time…you have a reasonable basis to conclude the process is junk.

Totally. If you stay in short term parking for too long you’re likely just costing yourself more than if you just did the monthly pass. Buffett has pretty consistently had tons of cash on hand. There’s been plenty of things he could’ve bought that would’ve done better going back many years now. Some of the things he has bought have done poorly. So the appeal to authority has little value to me. Same as when he was extremely bearish in May 2020.

LOL this is kinda wild. While I agree age isn’t a qualifier or disqualifier, at some point there’s enough overlap to draw some conclusion. Again, I totally relate. I started my business very young and along the way ran into so many egotistical “I’m superior because I’m older folks”. But I also had to put up the results to warrant my swagger. The difference between LeBron and a beer league guy at the park whom runs his mouth is that LeBron makes the shots. So as it relates to the above, just to provide some context; -people whom were in the market since 2006 are complacent, -the bottoms from recent general market volatility were “just the beginning”, -Buffett should not be questioned, -the inflation call that is now bordering on being in perpetuity -the oil is a must own because of inflation and Buffett - @gfp and anyone else buying bonds is an idiot -Fairfax is untouchable because it owns way too much duration, duration being defined as anything longer than 2 years - @james22 and anyone who owns crypto are bubbles breathing greater fools Amongst other things…. This in the face of many, many members here whom have taken the time to generously share their experience and stories and even relate on many fronts to the interesting dilemma of being young and smart in the market where things might not appear to make perfect sense to you. Actually let me rephrase that last sentence. Being young and smart in a market that’s euphoric and everyone’s dancing til the music stops and you’re certain you’ve got it all figured out because everyone else is dumb.

Well thank goodness not everyone’s a slave to the almighty “ytd” metric

Nothing wrong with keeping people honest

Great. Good on you. It’s a shame his name is Trump because that’s a big part of the problem. Politics is shot. Romney was our last greats hope and that went down the toilet with “the 1980s called and wants their foreign policy back”…two years prior to Russia taking Crimea. Only once people are thoroughly disgusted with their governments will things change. Either that, or unfortunately a major tragedy. I’ve never seen the country more united than after 9/11….in hindsight, it’s alarmingly informative regarding the hurdles we face. Until something changes, it’s my team against yours, race baiting, and handouts….

Sheesh, no accountability for me cuz I made a joke! Got it. Clearly absolutely nothing in the market works but the stuff Trump blessed…. More macro though, I do think this is exhibit A on the dangers of Trump Derangement Syndrome. You were in these for what? A decade? With largely nothing to show for it(save the I made 700% day trading dips and rips stuff). You knew the thesis well. All the stars align, right down to Trump himself having an entirely different control position this time around to get things done…and you sell on Orange Man Bad fever and then besmirch those whom are still long, continuously, while you continue to be demonstrably wrong, even down to “this hugely volatile pink sheeter started the day up 30% but see it already retraced 10%”! Whatever man.

Exactly. Wanna bitch about the blatant shitcoin scamming? Good, I agree. Wanna bitch about tariffs on Canada, yea I get that too. Wanna complain about loyalist hiring despite qualification issues? I see both sides especially after he was undermined from within during his entire term one. But I get it. Mocking attempts to resolve wars or lower taxes? Cut government waste? Radio silence about his relentless and successful efforts to return the Oct 7 hostages? Think we are a little smarter and better than that. But this is exactly why tribalism thrives. Everything has to be all or nothing for or against. Sad.

Exactly. People with no complaints or expectations their preferred candidate didn't end the war, now mock a guy who's legitimately trying....says it all.

Yup. Awesome idea too forcing them to get familiar with index funds and see the magic early on.

That’s one example. How about denying the stuff in South Africa? Cheering the Ukraine war still not being over? But yea, different views I guess

Point is nothing is even good enough and some will always complain or gripe or manufacture a negative out of spite.

The critics Like how awesome is the baby savings account? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/know-house-bills-1-000-205051565.html Yet what do these assholes have to say? “It’s not enough money”, “there are better options”, “poor people are likely to spend it”, “it’s going to be too confusing”, heck you’ll probably even get some claiming it’s an effort to pump the indexes. Oh and “don’t like the name” lol….Anything to undermine or be negative. Can’t even on something basic just be like wow that’s a great idea, encouraging savings and financial literacy, good job….

What do you expect? They cheer that the wars are still going on solely because “Trump said he d end them on day 1”. They ignore racism because it’s not the right color. They protest and undermine attempts to examine and eradicate government waste. They all of a sudden care about the deficit. Shit I saw a piece today about what is actually an awesome idea…a $1000 savings/investment account for every newborn, courtesy of Uncle Sam, and these scumbags have nothing but negative and critical things to say about it; hell Trump is even finally taking steps to release Fannie and Freddie and TDS takes them to “his family must be day trading it ahead of announcements” lol Fuck em