Gregmal

So when you own a bond, how much do you get compensated if the investment is validated via an acquisition? How much do you get compensated for volatility? Just within the universe of companies I follow, with stocks, good market or bad, you generally get 5-10/20% fluctuations frequently, to where you could literally just trade around a core and generate that mid single digit return in a matter of weeks/months. Same with selling options for premium. In general I feel like the underlying and maybe not soooo sooo obvious attraction people have to bonds is a feeling of security due to market to market because you don’t see the same fluctuations as with stocks. But that safety IMO is derived from perception, and perception may differ wildly from reality. For instance, after all the circus, it is stocks, and not bonds that have largely recovered from last years transition period. And this despite the fact there has been underlying assumptions the entire time that “stocks will do poorly”.

Is the fact that stocks can be volatile really a reason to be afraid of them? 2020 for instance? Two types of thought I guess…to some it was awful because stuff temporarily went down. To others it was beautiful because you had a generational opportunity to make a fortune. The takeaway regardless? Now 3 years later pretty much everything is substantially higher then before it happened and really, unless you had a 1.5 month liquidity need, it was a blip on the radar.

I personally dont think it gets nearly that bad. At least not for asset values. But again, mainly because what they are doing has been so well orchestrated to the people with wealth. Everyone who is just waiting; now they are getting 5% freebies while they wait for vacation homes and bragging rights associated with getting bargains when those just trying to hang on puke.

LOL now imagine telling those people that we're gonna embark on a multi year crusade where we attempt to "solve" the problem by giving even more free money to those with assets, at the expense of wage growth for the other 95% of folks? Yes, this is really happening. Anyone seen the rates for a used auto loan lately? Definitely helping the little guy!

Yup. The Fed officials are not even hiding it. They think wage growth for the average person is unacceptable and the jobs market should favor big companies.

The most bizarre thing was that when COVID first hit, everyone and their mother was like omg supply chains are gonna get fucked, and hard over the next few years. Then that plays out and half those people for some reason thought inflation was fueled by other stuff. Mainly the biggest bias I’ve ever seen, the “money printing bubble from 2014” thesis. It didn’t take a rocket scientist to see that shutting shit down, paying people to stay home, etc, would create inflation. And it shouldn’t have taken a rocket scientist to see ending that, would end inflation. The only trick, which wasn’t even that hard, was timing the lag and accounting for the capitalist aspect relating to pricing power. The stuff that didn’t hold pricing power, went right back to normal. Stuff like housing and Hershey bars, held better cuz no one wants to live in a tent or eat store brand candy.

And the “never in history” stuff was just so fundamentally lazy because it refused to consider content. If we have short term, COVID caused inflation obviously short term rates will be higher than long term rates. And by the way, never before in history had we had COVID before either. This is just one of the million problems with trying to be a macro expert.

And of course what does this “analyst” do? Moves the goalposts for his recession prediction back another 6 months lol.

Weird. Remember last 12 months or so all those people talking about the “E”?

Obviously gas stoves and water heaters. Also shower head water volume.

small adds to CLPR and KVUE

Exactly. More or less summed up as, how come the past is so much easier to predict than the future. 5-10 years ago who cared about Nvidia?

St Joe. The good things Florida has going for it are tailwinds, and if you look deep enough, you'll see the bad stuff for most of Florida is also a tailwind. Hamilton Thorne too I can see just having a forever runway. Nintendo as well. The cool thing is you only really need one or two of these type of investments to work to be in great shape, life-wise.

Yup, the big cities are effectively dead without office. It’s still reverberating. But from the top down everything relies on office occupancies. The tax base especially drives the long term prospects. So for places like SF or NY…I mean yea it’s great you still have people living there, but the recovery has an awfully long way to go. People will sign 6/12 month leases without thinking, but net/net you need a massive turnaround in office absorption and a 10-20 year commitment in the current environment just doesn’t seem like it’s enticing too many companies.

Wonder if they’ve set equitable water distribution regulations yet? Or are they waiting for the fire first? Whoops.

Yea to me it’s basically about taking that 4 months and sacrificing 2 more plus a day and that is how you get the best of both worlds. Not everyone can or wants to carry two properties though. There’s nowhere better than the northeast in the spring. There’s little worse than the northeast from January through mid March.

Exactly. Now factor in state taxes. The owner of a $500k home probably pays another 1-1.5% of the home value in state taxes annually. So even if insurance rates double from todays levels, it’s still not really material. None of this ever gets mentioned though because there’s a very obvious agenda underpinning it. Even if both were equal, you then have the whole better weather element. Myself? I don’t get the attraction to 90+ and humid as shit 85% of the year…but lots of folks definitely like it. It’s not a coincidence that anyone who’s half successful moves on from being a full time resident in the northeast by 65.

Welcome to Wall Street. You have crooks everywhere who make a lot of money and acquire lots of expensive things, and then point to having expensive things and making more money than other people are reasons why you should believe theyre successful.

Cut half of UBS.

Almost certainly touting Ackmans rate take. If there’s one thing the guy does well, it’s copy Ackman.

Ok. But if we re talking about such small movements that intraday is make or break, isn’t that kind of “losing” to begin with? Like go back two decades on that chart and there’s like 3-4 years where maybe you got an acceptable return. Same number of year you would have got a horrendous one. These are basically just instruments for governments and pensions that wanna skim fees.

Golfing so cant be as descriptive as I'd like but its similar to LII and CARR, next wave of the housing cycle beneficiaries.

WHR

He said there will be pain and a year later I’m painfully 60% wealthier give or take. It’s been utterly brutal I’ll tell ya. It’s just that…..the stupidity and arrogance is breathtaking. He’s the worst breed of them all. A finance guy politician. It’s fun for us, sure. But like in March when this jackass almost blew up the banks he regulated and would’ve wiped out Americans savings accounts, you just have to wonder how deranged and clueless, exactly, they are? It’s just like Fauci with the COVID restrictions and guidance. How long is this asshat gonna keep jawboning for attention rather than just realize times up and move on?

This creep just can’t let go of his 15 minutes in the spotlight. Fauci 2.0….inflation still too high? Jerry it’s all housing and you did that!