Gregmal

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease. Which do you think is more likely? These people suffer from some of the most extreme commitment and consistency bias I've seen. Don't waste your time - not worth engaging w/ these people Or, maybe, you know, on a investment board, some people look at a short term situation, call it the flu, call it coronavirus, call it whatever you please, and realize that there will be a time where this passes and that in between the baby often gets thrown out with the bath water and as such find the overreaction to be silly. Or that there will opportunities both long and short, and that "all cash" in a zero rate environment, or "shorting RCL" with a 200%+ annualized carry isn't the only investment on the table. Has little to do with commitment bias. Has to do with your outlook and time horizon. A consistency bias would be, I dont know, riding a second rate FNMA thesis through the greatest bull market in history, clinging to every bs legal filing, and then still seeing a 60% drawdown via the zombie apocalypse virus. To each their own.

Just my 2c, but arent there easier targets here than a premium company that targets the ultra rich? It can/could work, but Ferrari is a great company, with a huge moat, and product with insatiable demand. Id gander Ford is a better short than Ferrari. I mean we just saw Ballmer pay $400M for a stadium-yesterday! Its possibly a one off. But its also not farfetched wealthy folks will continue to be better off than average folks. Why get cute going after a world class business when you can go after turds? Even if you hit, you still have to nail the landing trading wise, because like other best of breed companies, these do bottom and rebound hard. Disclosure, I shorted some F today.

This is a super-flu with a social media following. Thats it. The reactions have all been magnified by social media as well. Fed cuts rates? OMG thats because the situation is sooo dire! Fed doesnt do anything? What are they waiting for! Theyre going to kill the economy... Damned if you do, damned if you dont world we live in. If you're an investor, just try to get by and stick to the golden rules....Sanity will eventually prevail. You're starting to see the magic equation, unlimited stimulus, free money for one of the first times ever, going straight to the consumer, rates at 0, and subsidies for business who are jeopardized.... I'll pose a simple question, with a simple context. Look at the economic figures present when the S&P was at 3200...jobless rate, wages, etc. Its probably going to be a little bit, but where do you think SPY is when the figures get back there? Higher or lower than 3200? It's a really simple equation that just involves the ability to ignore the short term noise.

From what I heard, the mortgage deferral also only refers to owner occupied units, not investors. I could be wrong through.

I hear what you're saying with (1). Perhaps I should rethink my options. I figure, I'd rather have that intrinsic value stored up. If I buy OOM options it frees up a bit more cash; but my exposure is very conditional. I'm always a bit nervous with OOM options because in the case of (2), it seems like they are only useful if prices run up enough. And you have to sell at the right point i.e. maximum upwards movement and volatility - do you find these OOM calls have a limited lifespan where you can make decent money? Or do you plan to hold until expiration and count on being right on both direction & timing? You're right on volatility - LEAPs past 2021 were very expensive today. This is a unique subject. Personally, I prefer to cut the stock via deep ITM. How much depends on my confidence and ability to really get under the hood. Being honest with myself this usually eliminates much over the market cap of day $10B. Companies bigger than that, even ones we all know well like BRK pose zero analytical edge and even when they do, have parts that move too quick. If I really like it but am uncertain, I try to use the ITM as a stop loss. Similar to what I did with WFC in January. $45 strike. If it goes below there, I’m out. With stuff I’m dedicated to, you go deep ITM, figure that your margin of safety, and then of, let’s say something extraordinary like this happens, and you find yourself below the strike, you should still have reasonable confidence in valuation and time sorting things out, to load the boat on those same now OTM calls. Example let’s say BRK $150 calls. In the money now, and if they ever go below, you can swing big as OTM

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/03/20/coronavirus-greffex-vaccine-john-price-aurora-covid-19-development/

People give great weight to what they see and think today. Do you know how many people who swore Amazon or Netflix where overvalued in 2012-2015 became dip buyers on those names in 2018 onward? What was truly insane was looking at institutional filings for 2019 Q3 and Q4. Basically FANGM for everyone.

Got some GRIF(new ticker for super levered inverse etf) under $30.

Why? What exactly did they do wrong? Let’s jack up the Capex on all of these companies so the already razor thin margins in the airline industry tighten even more and increase prices putting air travel back out of reach for the average American. The issue is 2008-09 is still fresh in many people's minds. Lots of ordinary people lost everything in the housing crash. Lots of big corporations got bailed out. Same thing looks to be happening again. Warren feels the scale is tipped too much one way. Lots of voters agree with her. I don’t disagree that lending should be sparingly and stringent. But you cross a line when you start mandating wages etc. There are simply better ways to structure this. They would be mandating wages if they take the offer. They don't have to take the offer. That's fair. The executives have "compensation consultants" to help them make more. Employees don't have that. You have to level the playing field. That’s not leveling the playing field. That’s straight up intervention and beyond. The business was fine before the pandemic. If you want to say “keep more cash on hand because next time you’re not getting a bailout” fine. Are you going to make that same mandate for every small business across the country? Ridiculous. The ordinary people that would bitch about a bailout would be the casualties. Retail/hospitality/airline/small business. Its not bankers and mortgage brokers this time.

A little HHC at the close.

I think staying with reasonably or better capitalized companies in necessary industries will pay off. Not that it has stemmed my losses. GRBK well below book, PCYO no debt and big moat on top MSA, FRPH, GOOG and the FANGS. MSG + MSGN, basically moats, trophy assets, or cash cows already at cheap multiples. The world will go on.

Man what a day. Wondering if Donald is signing todays intraday chart? "I'm not responsible".... Bought FRPH, DD, CTO, MSG, PCYO, BRK, HTL, and small GOOG add

Hmmm...Canada does have an advisory against international travel, does have recommendation for self quarantining for 2 weeks post international travel, doctors have been requested not to travel abroad so that they can be present to help treat, governments have mandated that schools be closed in New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario & Manitoba, there is no formal entertainment going on - restrictions on gatherings have been placed...@ the grassroots level in Canada I find no one is shaking hands, meetings are being cancelled, there is alcohol based sanitizer everywhere.... Hospital capacity is what it is. However there are plans in place for closing OR's and turning them into ICUs if necessary. Bank of Canada has slashed interest rates, government has issued liquidity. Overall, from what I can see Canada is doing an exemplary job. But US has all the things that you’ve listed and then even more and everyone here is saying the US response is botched and they’re just waiting for Italy to happen so...?? Well, I think anyone with some observatory skills can tell you why that is.

Can he turn it upside down and add 4,000 points to the accelerated move and date it from his original address?

Same here. I have lots of family in the medical field. A week ago the consensus was that no one knew anything and there was no plan. This week every one of them stated there were meetings, training courses, and contingency plans brought up.

Not I today, but had some family up and after some general market small talk helped my 22 year old brother make his first ever stock purchases. 1 share of GOOG and 5 shares MSG.

ZM has gotten a massive boost from this short term hysteria. There are many, many other, much shittier companies with no real operations and tons of future expected losses, that would be significantly better short targets.

Looking forward the next "major news" announcement at 3pm. Another opportunity to sell the news.

This. When I started out, I was basically doing short only. It is an entirely different animal, in every aspect, than any other investment type or strategy. But it teaches you more than I think anything else does, because you literally have to consider EVERYTHING. Fundamental, technical, costs of carry+timing, game theory, incentives and behavioral influence, accounting, etc. You're basically forced to connect dots and then make predicative, catalyst based sell/cover decisions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-wife-of-canada-pm-justin-trudeau-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html This has been here for much longer than people think.

Not today, but I still don’t think beyond meat should be selling for more than $4.99

In my experience, the bottom is when you are so thoroughly fed up and disgusted with stocks that you no longer have any desire to look at them, let alone buy them.

How long did that take?

S&P500 is down 25% now since Feb 19th. The problem with all the cash guys is they sit around dancing and proclaiming how right they've been for sitting on a pile on 1.2% yielding USD for the past decade but remain too negative to know an opportunity when they see one. Yes, congrats you're 80% in cash when the market falls 25%. As you have been since 2012. And now the market gets back to 2016 levels, and you're still thinking it needs to get back to 2010 in order to invest again...

Greg, i could not disagree more about Trump. This guy is a control freak. And an image freak. And he has really bad judgement. People who disagree are punished. He has surrounded himself with yes men. The US response is severely handicapped. He sets the tone for the whole response and he is toxic. 45% of the people in the US think he is a god... At the top sure. But from what I’ve seen that states are basically ignoring him and moving ahead and even somewhat surprisingly, companies are taking the initiative as well. Trump is only so powerful. He is a figurehead. Which worked until it lost confidence. Cuomo the other day basically said, they don’t care what Washington is doing. Death rates, ex the nursing home, aren’t that high. If, and this is a big if, there have already been cases for months, I think that’s a pretty good indication that at least for now, it’s more manageable than what we see in Italy. I think we will have a microscope on Hanks and the basketball player. Two small cases but having a spotlight on how these unfold could be a little reassuring(or devastating). Here is one of 100 examples from just the past week: When he spreads his misinformation people listen to him and this hurts local efforts. FYI, do you think Trump calling the Governor of Washington State a snake was helpful? Did that help Republicans in Washington State get behind the Governors requests? No. That matters. Honestly, maybe its just me(always possible) I think he's lost a lot of credibility. The same reasons the market sells the news with him now, I think a lot of people, even his supporters, understand this. Of course just local observations, but Im in Trump country, and theres big macho men rushing up to the hand sanitizers at Home Depot. My larger point is that I think people, even in a lot of the extreme cases, have begun discounting a lot of things with the guy. The awareness is the preventative, not some guy with little back ground on the subject talking about how a scientist recently told him he would have been a great doctor...