Gregmal

I think this will ultimately be an effort that succeeds or fails because of action(or inaction) at the local levels. Trump literally has nothing to do with this. He is not capable of really impacting anything any more than he does when he whines about the Fed. He s just a mouthpiece who behaves in a predictable way. Most states immediately declared state of emergency, Trump has yet to do so. People I think are conflating Trumps actions with the responses. Sprinkle in a little media narrative and social media effect, and its easy to see how people think this is Italy. But on a local level, I think the work has been solid. And I again say this giving credit to politicians like Murphy and De Blasio, guys I generally think are shleps. Some stuff is just preposterously priced right now. Other stuff, not so much. But thats almost always the case.

Why not just quietly accumulate GOOG and MSFT?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html Was I a bit early maybe? This was about a week ago. We will see. Ill be sure to check back and quote this when we get a similar narrative above in the media. 8) For an uneducated opinion, this is reasonable. But how do you reconcile with what is happening in Italy? And given how quickly things went out of control in Italy, why don't you think the same thing will happen in the US? So on the other side, what is the outcome if we arent like Italy? Putting some more of this into perspective, in late 2018, the market suddenly fell 20%, for NO REASON whatsoever. Sure everyone has their hind site reasons why, but there was absolutely nothing that changed to warrant that one. Here you have this big scary boogie man plague, the likes of which we've supposedly never seen before, and every financial guy with or without a spread sheet saying "I dont know" and getting quoted, sometimes in context, but a lot of times out of context, as "this is the end". I mean the only thing thats really changed this week, is that basically everything is shutting down even though numbers are significantly lower than where other countries were when they decided to do so. Theres a lot of political narrative driving this. not to condone the job Trump has done. I dont think he's done or even responsible for anything, so grandstanding and trying to take all the credit is preposterous. But how hasn't the approach, especially by local guys I'd normally call hack jobs, such as in SF, WA, and NYC, anything short of commendable? In speaking with friends in NYC/SF/Sea it seems like cities are mostly shut down. HOwever, if you look at pretty much any other city, it's as if nothing is happening. I suspect I'll be told to work from home a week from now, but everyone's in the office, and traffic was just as bad today as any other day. Net of it, I don't think most people are as educated nor have most of middle america gotten the message... Eh its hard to tell. I live in suburbia, not too far from rural, manly man, big beard, F250, blue jeans and timberland boots towns. Theres sanitizers at every store and even those guys are making a concerted effort to be hygienic. Hopefully all folks are. Given where things, market wise have escalated, I just cant see how the current reality correlates unless things severely accelerate, which of course is always a possibility. To me, the current numbers, context, and things mentioned by folks like orthopa kind of seem to indicate this is further along than everyone realizes, and a lot less severe. Even the big case in NJ about the "perfectly healthy 32 year of physical assistant" having "severe" problems? Oh, yea, its just came out he was a chronic vaper... I've taken off all my hedges.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html Was I a bit early maybe? This was about a week ago. We will see. Ill be sure to check back and quote this when we get a similar narrative above in the media. 8) For an uneducated opinion, this is reasonable. But how do you reconcile with what is happening in Italy? And given how quickly things went out of control in Italy, why don't you think the same thing will happen in the US? So on the other side, what is the outcome if we arent like Italy? Putting some more of this into perspective, in late 2018, the market suddenly fell 20%, for NO REASON whatsoever. Sure everyone has their hind site reasons why, but there was absolutely nothing that changed to warrant that one. Here you have this big scary boogie man plague, the likes of which we've supposedly never seen before, and every financial guy with or without a spread sheet saying "I dont know" and getting quoted, sometimes in context, but a lot of times out of context, as "this is the end". I mean the only thing thats really changed this week, is that basically everything is shutting down even though numbers are significantly lower than where other countries were when they decided to do so. Theres a lot of political narrative driving this. not to condone the job Trump has done. I dont think he's done or even responsible for anything, so grandstanding and trying to take all the credit is preposterous. But how hasn't the approach, especially by local guys I'd normally call hack jobs, such as in SF, WA, and NYC, anything short of commendable?

small adds to DD, MSG and reasonable size add the BRK. Use that cash Warren

Got an email from Spirit Airlines today. It said: "Never a better time to fly" Reminded me of one of those old "wanna get away" commercials. Fun times.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html Interesting story seems to vibe with some of the things orthopa mentioned earlier.

I feel like we could make a movie about quarantining Tom Hanks on an island....

I tend to agree and am at least marginally more optimistic this seems to have gone from 0-60 in like a few days. While there is a degree of self mutilization that comes from scaring the bejesus out of everybody, it should also now, stem the spread. EVERYTHING in NY is closed. I think local governments have done a reasonable job jumping in front of this here. To expect anything from Trump other than pushing for stimulus and rate cuts, is stupid. He doesnt have a clue and will likely only be there to try to take credit. But anyone saying people arent taking this seriously just isn't paying attention. Every place I go has attendants with spray bottles and wipes. I've gotten emails from 7/8 banks I use outlining their responses. Almost all offices are closed and people are being told to work from home. So on one end, the fear mongering and hysteria can be short term damaging, on the other end, it forces the pain to the forefront, but will likely result in a quicker resolution.

The 12 month low is just a figment of where you choose to start. At tomorrows open, we'll basically be trading at around where we were in Q4 2017.

At least now we have some high profile celebrity endorsements! If nothing else, public people having it will shed a lot more light on the degree of this thing.

So the big question is, does Tom Hanks get let back into the US?

Jesus NBA season cancelled. Insanity.

That would be $38. We are pretty close. but then, we also have VNO at 50% of NAV. Choices, choices. Maybe I'm overthinking it, or perhaps biased in the first place, but Im paranoid that forcing everyone to work from home will awaken a sleeping giant. Especially all those dinosaur companies who still currently shun the idea. Once they see how easy it is to make that transition perhaps this presents problems for traditional office assets. Retail will at least see folks come back. Who really wants to go back to the office?

This+ an LOL at the folks stocking up on perishables. They do go bad... Maybe this is some covert economic stimulus scheme. People will be buying 2 weeks worth of crap for the next 6 months...I had to wait 15 minutes at Dicks Sporting Goods this weekend to pickup some braided fishing line.

FRPH at book would be lovely.

PCYO Edit: also just grabbed some GOOG

Sold a few WING puts(to close)

LOL yup. That and the hysteria, along with its mouthpieces, tend to let the day to day volatility, inspire their confidence. Kind of the antithesis of investing. But hey, are you ready for extinction?

In respect to the NYC area, I dont even think many are waiting for government action. Check out all the big offices that have already ordered folks to work from home. Almost all the financial firms, including Point 72 and SkyBridge already have this in place. Of course, Id gander the most at risk of catching this and brining it back here are the douchey financial charlatans who travel the world attending "conferences"(aka parties) on the company tab.

Funny, my wife was reading on the iPad and groaned "I just want to read normal news and the only thing, everywhere, is this coronavirus stuff"...my thoughts? Fucking tell me about it. Try being a stock market participant the past two weeks! Anyhow, finished my nightly outreach on this dreaded topic with a few contacts From an NJ hospital with 3(now 2 cases after 1 death) paraphrasing Doctors dont really know what they are doing. They are constantly in contact with people over in China seeking advice. Hardly overwhelmed, but simply don't have a clue as no one has ever seen this type of thing before. Some are totally freaked out, some are of the thought this is not that big of a deal if handled properly. The main dude who's been all over the news is still in iffy shape, although they are optimistic he peaked yesterday.

I'm not leaning towards selling it. This isn't the Spanish flu which primarily targeted people in their 20s,30s,40s and largely left the children and elderly alone. The level of panic will subside once the general public comes to understand this. I am fearful for my parents who are in their 70s and 80s (my father has had pneumonia in the past 6 months) and I have two close social contacts with stage 4 cancer undergoing chemotherapy. However, I don't fear for myself, my wife or my kids . (I remarried in January). https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/white-house-wont-explain-how-it-would-pay-for-trumps-proposed-payroll-tax-holiday.html Underwhelming... futures -500 Trump is still a predictable putz. Very, very large numbers...details? Nil.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-april-chinese-officials-say/ Interesting. I guess thats the upside to having this escape from a lab....they've already been developing a cure and the normal 12-24 month clock it typically takes started years ago..j/k

This is obviously a complex issue and one not to be taken lightly. Its also an interesting case study of what happens when you give finance guys cool looking charts, trendy buzz words, and Twitter(the land where you can find any number of experts with opinions that support your own already conceived conclusions). Fun times. Ive also found interesting that at first, the narrative was, China botched this. Then, it was China cant be trusted. Now, its China handled this better than we could. The truth, who really knows. But South Koreas figures are promising. As are several other countries. Italy on the other hand, a mess. But didn't we already know Italy was a mess even before the virus?