Gregmal

3000 deaths in China, and its on the decline. But yea, exponential growth for the win! Or do you have some data that suggests Americans are more prone to death than Chinese folks?

Dalal owns RCL puts with a $9 per month carry lol. Of course he bought them weeks ago and is up big time! The "Washington deaths are exploding" narrative is also deliberately misleading nonsense. An entire nursing home got infected and through mismanagement and probably some bad luck, many of those folks will die. That is hardly, at all a sample size or point of data any reasonable person would use. You seem to be incredibly dedicated to this on your twitter as well.

This is actually something I think is very real. People who dont know it, are living and dealing with this. Start spreading panic though, and people with fucking allergies are bombarding hospitals and hotlines because they have a sneeze. With respect to John's posted report, I am fully aware of that, thanks, but thats information everyone has and its been out there awhile which makes it worthless. My only approach to this thing outside of taking the precautions to keep myself and my family safe, is to find the most efficient ways to make money through the markets. All the Buffett disciples here and I cant help at marvel at the incredible amount of emotion and fear fueling everything. The master would be proud. Be scared and panic when everyone is scared and panicking I believe is his storied quote! Maybe we should start reciting all those old "sayings" value investors seem to regurgitate during normal times...Nah, fuck it, everything going to zero! Only thing about Buffett we do know, is the geezer was just buying airline stocks... The other element here is the "I guarantee we ll have more cases" crowd. No shit, lol! I can do that too! I bet you tomorrow we will have more cases. And the day after a higher amount. And then when it happens I ll declare, OMG I was right! But if the broader markets wants to play this game where we take 2-3% of the S&P every time we have a few hundred(or even thousand) more cases...I'll take the other side, all day. Eventually we'll either go to 0 on the index and then people will pick their heads up and realize we still have people and companies left and then...whooops, or at some point this nonsense is priced in and the market will stop declining at such a spectacular rate. I've said numerous times how Ive probably never seen a more fertile ground for stock specific long/short strategies than right now. Its incredible. But at some point you have to look at totally unaffected names down 25% and at least question it. Or even, maybe down the line, look at cruise ship operations and realize, damn, these are some pretty fucking moaty businesses and the most likely scenario longer term is, just like with airlines after 9/11 the narrative gets so far skewed when in reality, because of it, you'll likely find few places in the world safer than a cruise ship the same way the safest place to be in 2002 was in an airport or on a plane...thats contrarian thinking though. But its worth considering longer term. I have no position in any cruise ship and dont intend to take one any time soon, but its food for thought. Wuhan did all they could to spread the damn thing and then afterwards locked it all down and voila, like maybe less than 1% of the entire population had this and a few thousand died. And this also factors in Wuhan being very significantly different than US in terms of their social layouts. Oh, and now theyre basically done with it and getting back to life. Despite their inferior healthcare system and many parts of the country being third world like. But instead people conveniently want to play both sides. Numbers are low because "we cant trust them", but then "oh look how China handled it so much better". I dont care about either. Only thing I care about is when and how soon their activity gets back to normal. It appears thats happening. If more data comes in, and dots can further be connected, I think it will solidify this conviction. Some people want to vent politics, fine. Good use of your time screaming "theyre not testing" and then when they do test, scream "see look at all the cases!". A rational thinker knows theres way more cases being reported and S&P companies didn't just lose a few trillions in IV because we started testing a confirmed it. There is a good likelihood this has been around much longer than we realize, its worked its way through populations, and its not nearly as severe as its portrayed. The data, has so far indicated that the consumer has not been effected. China is ramping back up. Its a virus. Warm weather helps. Its 60 degrees in early March in NJ right now.... Get a grip people. Or keep being emotional and panic. Stocks are going to be worthless any day....Go ahead. Read his post again. There is no politics. Let me highlight it for you: In his medical opinion, these patients have severe symptoms of something more than a cold, resembles a flu, but they are Flu negative. This is not an allergy or hypochondriasis. Ok, and were did all these people go? They died and no one reported it? They are still in critical condition but not reported? Or they recovered? If that is the case where orthopa works, Id say it has to be the case elsewhere. Or is it only where orthopa is? Or is orthopa a liar? Which is it? At some point all this stuff converges and its not enough to just say "MOAR CASES!". It is highly likely this has been here a while and life was normal as was the economy. It is highly likely that pretty much all numbers we have are wrong. It is very likely, if only 1% of Wuhan got it, and a few thousand died, that we should be in better shape than that. Do you have any clue about US geography? You think this spreads better in NYC or the suburbs? VS Wuhan city center during the Chinese New Year!

This is actually something I think is very real. People who dont know it, are living and dealing with this. Start spreading panic though, and people with fucking allergies are bombarding hospitals and hotlines because they have a sneeze. With respect to John's posted report, I am fully aware of that, thanks, but thats information everyone has and its been out there awhile which makes it worthless. My only approach to this thing outside of taking the precautions to keep myself and my family safe, is to find the most efficient ways to make money through the markets. All the Buffett disciples here and I cant help at marvel at the incredible amount of emotion and fear fueling everything. The master would be proud. Be scared and panic when everyone is scared and panicking I believe is his storied quote! Maybe we should start reciting all those old "sayings" value investors seem to regurgitate during normal times...Nah, fuck it, everything going to zero! Only thing about Buffett we do know, is the geezer was just buying airline stocks... The other element here is the "I guarantee we ll have more cases" crowd. No shit, lol! I can do that too! I bet you tomorrow we will have more cases. And the day after a higher amount. And then when it happens I ll declare, OMG I was right! But if the broader markets wants to play this game where we take 2-3% of the S&P every time we have a few hundred(or even thousand) more cases...I'll take the other side, all day. Eventually we'll either go to 0 on the index and then people will pick their heads up and realize we still have people and companies left and then...whooops, or at some point this nonsense is priced in and the market will stop declining at such a spectacular rate. I've said numerous times how Ive probably never seen a more fertile ground for stock specific long/short strategies than right now. Its incredible. But at some point you have to look at totally unaffected names down 25% and at least question it. Or even, maybe down the line, look at cruise ship operations and realize, damn, these are some pretty fucking moaty businesses and the most likely scenario longer term is, just like with airlines after 9/11 the narrative gets so far skewed when in reality, because of it, you'll likely find few places in the world safer than a cruise ship the same way the safest place to be in 2002 was in an airport or on a plane...thats contrarian thinking though. But its worth considering longer term. I have no position in any cruise ship and dont intend to take one any time soon, but its food for thought. Wuhan did all they could to spread the damn thing and then afterwards locked it all down and voila, like maybe less than 1% of the entire population had this and a few thousand died. And this also factors in Wuhan being very significantly different than US in terms of their social layouts. Oh, and now theyre basically done with it and getting back to life. Despite their inferior healthcare system and many parts of the country being third world like. But instead people conveniently want to play both sides. Numbers are low because "we cant trust them", but then "oh look how China handled it so much better". I dont care about either. Only thing I care about is when and how soon their activity gets back to normal. It appears thats happening. If more data comes in, and dots can further be connected, I think it will solidify this conviction. Some people want to vent politics, fine. Good use of your time screaming "theyre not testing" and then when they do test, scream "see look at all the cases!". A rational thinker knows theres way more cases being reported and S&P companies didn't just lose a few trillions in IV because we started testing a confirmed it. There is a good likelihood this has been around much longer than we realize, its worked its way through populations, and its not nearly as severe as its portrayed. The data, has so far indicated that the consumer has not been effected. China is ramping back up. Its a virus. Warm weather helps. Its 60 degrees in early March in NJ right now.... Get a grip people. Or keep being emotional and panic. Stocks are going to be worthless any day....Go ahead.

Exactly. We are sorely lacking reliable info and we are about to get tons of it. Wall Street tends to shit first and ask questions later. At -12% for the broader index, it’ll be interesting to see what’s priced in.

Oh please, can anyone really imagine the level of whining and outrage if the current administration tried anything even remotely similar to China? We already have enough "authoritarian dictator" hyperbole simply because there's a Republican in office. I agree though, China's eventual handling of this was by far the best route. Its just not feasible here, regardless of who is in office because we have a different system. Thats why I actually think its a good idea for governors, like Cuomo, to immediately declare state of emergencies. If nothing else, it allows them freedoms to act as appropriate.

I don't think the number of cases matters, any more so than the flu. What matters is how soon the relevant data becomes clear, because right now it isn't and all we are going off of was the apocalyptic origins and folklore from Wuhan, where zombies were crawling into hospitals, tripping over carcasses, reports of hundreds of thousands of zombie bodies being incinerated. Getting more clarity on a real fatality rate will help. People are blatantly missing the obvious fact that the absolute worst case fatality rate, is the deaths/confirmed cases number when in reality its death/confirmed+many unconfirmed cases. Getting an idea about recovery periods, will help. Continuing to see economic trends will help. I was again doing some errands and dropped by a few popular shopping centers today, and granted it was a gorgeous pre spring day, but the places were a zoo. No indication at all of people changing their behaviors. Personally, I think this is just another thing that will become part of everyday life. We'll be living with it as it isn't going away anytime soon, but it also isn't the end of the world either. In fact, the only time I really even notice anything about this, is during market hours. Otherwise its entirely life as usual. The market reactions really just occur when the dorks cant whip out their TI-83s or Excel sheets and forecast some type of model which happens to be the case here. Obviously travel will get hurt, as well as big city hospitality, but for the most part, I dont expect some seismic shift in how people live their lives.

This is certainly valid, but I think the broader financial system being knee capped and liquidity constrained is significantly different from the current environment and its potential fallout. Mainly because the two areas most directly effected, IMO, retail and energy, have already been decimated and gone through rugged bear markets. So it isn't as though we are swinging peak to trough like financials did in 07. Additionally, largely because we have a president quite concerned with the stock market, we will likely see stimulus pumped out, probably even at a faster rate than necessary. There will be casualties, but this isn't a system wide issue. Economically its pretty contained. Maybe you see a bit of stress in the CRE markets, but again, we've already got a bunch of this baked in over the years. How far do they go? 10% cap rates with a .7% 10 year? Granted, I acknowledge how short sighted and petty Wall Street can be. But you've got so much cheap money still sloshing around in the system and an accommodative Fed that its hard to see everyone just all of a sudden decide they won't touch assets at any price. Which again, completely ignores the fact that China is steadily ramping back up and the current retail environment according to several recent surveys, is still quite robust.

Yeah, there's going to be a win from the hygiene awareness. Hopefully it's long-lasting, and maybe even it becomes part of western culture that when you're sick, you stay home or wear a mask in public and don't contaminate everybody needlessly. Doesnt this kind of bode well then for peoples attention and preparedness for corona?

Too funny. Everyone has an opinion.

Theres nothing. Just fear mongering and stock promoter speak. Cases are up 78% and compounding at a greater rate than Warren Buffett in his prime! Truth? 3 to 6 to 13....Big whoop. We should be expecting much more than 10 cases in NY. Does each extra dozen warrant -2% on the S&P?

Pretty much. I think sensationalism has taken hold of a lot of really smart individuals and its feeds off itself to create momentum. The market is clearly in "voting machine" mode; one look at whats trending and popular tells one all they need to know there. Stocks with single digit PEs and robust cash flows getting hammered, corona themed pump jobs going bananas reminiscent of the crypto or marijuana bubbles. Everywhere you turn its another dramatic reveal of "OMG more cases" when the truth shouldn't shock anyone. Given the carnage, that should be expected. Then you ask yourself, ok, so more cases...but what not revealed are the severity or context on any of them, except fo course, the scary ones where people are gravely ill or dying. I actually found out yesterday an investor of mine, in Europe has it. He's in good spirits, texting away on his phone, chilling in his house; albeit uncomfortably. Thats most of the cases....But you're not hearing that anywhere. Its a constant barrage of panic inducing snippets and disgruntled or frustrated(rightfully so) healthcare workers screaming "THIS IS THE END", many of these with obvious political biases. I tend to give less credence to the numbers and more to the narrative when the numbers are what everyone else is focused on, and when no one else is paying attention to the numbers, instead fixated on a narrative, I try to give the numbers my attention. More reports out today from retailers again confirming, at least to date, no noticeable difference in demand. Positive reports on China activity. Again, its not to say this cant evolve into something much bigger, but the "OMG MOAR CASES" and "LOOK AT THIS PARABOLIC CHART" stuff is just noise. Obviously its a pretty big concern, we just lost a significant portion of market capitalization lol. But the way folks are acting you'd think by 1,000 US cases the market should be cut in half. EDIT: and to further make a point, now, because of all the noise, look at how many idiots are inundating hospitals or hotlines with inquiries because of common allergies or a small cold! If our goal is to overwhelm the hospitals and drain our resources, the propaganda machines are certainly doing all they can.

A data-point from Norway (might be interesting for some, presented without opinion): Out of the (as of yesterday) 86 confirmed infected, no one is severely ill, or even hospitalized. And as you say, (many?) more are probably infected, as just those with symptoms are tested. But then again, most of the infected are people coming home from ski-trips, not elderly people with reduced immune-system. Its hard to zero in anywhere which is why it all must, IMO, be taken both with a grain of sincerity, as well as skepticism. Every country you can more or less make the case that the numbers cant be trusted. At the same time, its also quite possible the numbers are skewed as many have already alluded to with respect to the fact that the majority of confirmed cases are just those that are bad or paranoid enough to come forward.

There are a number of people in this thread who are emotionally invested in this issue. Personally, in the past, when I have become emotionally invested in certain discussions, I have found it valuable to withdraw from discussions on the internet for 7 or 10 days as a cooling off exercise. A little distance does a lot of good. SJ Nah, it's my education & training as engineer + physician that has me concerned. But not a bad idea about stepping away for a while like I did in the TSLA thread. After all, if I am right, I can come back and LMAO again. So yes, peace out and see you in 30 days. So, yea... what exactly will you "LMAO" again in regards too? Total US cases eclipsing China? Total deaths eclipsing China? Another 10-15% market drop? Biden leading in the polls? Thats the thing, you're really just pandering to the apocalypse crowd without really saying anything useful. Then whining covertly about how much you dislike Trump and think he s incompetent. OK, cool. Everyone can go find charts. Everyone can find news clips saying its a big deal, and its no big deal. Especially so on Twitter. Everyone can imagine the contagion effect. You arent really saying anything useful or of relevance really to anything. You went to cash? Why? If it s such a no brainer this will blow up, there are 100% surefire shorts out there. Or pair trades. Or is asking you to commit to something verifiable too much to ask? Other than of course, corona cases in the US will rise... Lol. Yes my posts are just charts and I do not say anything useful. Growth in cases is all the same. Exponential, multiplicative growth is not a useful concept to understand. This admin/CDC has handled this marvelously and there is no point anyway to taking precautionary steps. We will surely have a vaccine thru all clinical trials and safe and effective and mass produced (just like our testing kits) very soon. The U.S. has a fabulous healthcare system with great bang for your buck that needs no reformation. See? A whole lot of nothing unlike your posts with valuable insights. My puts in RCL and NCLH from a week ago are doing ok, and I plan on holding for 30d so you can track that to see if I am full of it. Not that you have any reason to believe me because I did not disclose it at the time. Oh well. See you in 30d. Edit: I don’t like shorting companies because they have real employees, but the puts are a bet on what happens w this outbreak. Unlike TSLAQ, I will not engage in trashing those companies. It has nothing to do with their individual businesses (other than what I saw on their balance sheet/cash flows stmnt), but their industry as a whole. Would feel bad to see the co’s fail, but it’s a real possibility. Hope I am wrong about the virus and all of this, but it is looking less and less likely... So your investments/wagers, again, using today as the judgment point, are puts on cruise ship operators. RCL for instance you're paying $9 for an April at the money put. I suppose we shall see. Even if bearish, as I detailed earlier, there's probably better ways to play it. $PRTY, $CBL, $CHK are donuts corona or not. Much faster if this picks up. But at least we're getting somewhere and discussing ways to make money. Good luck. As with Tesla, I have no problem giving credit when I'm wrong. Thats the beauty of the market.

There are a number of people in this thread who are emotionally invested in this issue. Personally, in the past, when I have become emotionally invested in certain discussions, I have found it valuable to withdraw from discussions on the internet for 7 or 10 days as a cooling off exercise. A little distance does a lot of good. SJ Nah, it's my education & training as engineer + physician that has me concerned. But not a bad idea about stepping away for a while like I did in the TSLA thread. After all, if I am right, I can come back and LMAO again. So yes, peace out and see you in 30 days. So, yea... what exactly will you "LMAO" again in regards too? Total US cases eclipsing China? Total deaths eclipsing China? Another 10-15% market drop? Biden leading in the polls? Thats the thing, you're really just pandering to the apocalypse crowd without really saying anything useful. Then whining covertly about how much you dislike Trump and think he s incompetent. OK, cool. Everyone can go find charts. Everyone can find news clips saying its a big deal, and its no big deal. Especially so on Twitter. Everyone can imagine the contagion effect. You arent really saying anything useful or of relevance really to anything. You went to cash? Why? If it s such a no brainer this will blow up, there are 100% surefire shorts out there. Or pair trades. Or is asking you to commit to something verifiable too much to ask? Other than of course, corona cases in the US will rise...

Dont stop Dalal from his world class reporting! We are still awaiting the cell phone pic of the parabolic chart showing 6k Korean cases... This thread was quite useful and informative up until a few days ago but has basically evolved into veiled politics inspired whining. Which is cool of course, but not really useful for anything investment related. Im curious(seriously) to see the evolution in Canada, particularly BC as well. Doesn't seem to be all that crazy yet. Same goes for Japan and a few other places. Of course, for just about any place, you can find a scary news piece or Twitter feed(most often linked to people supporting similar political causes).

Thanks. We are doing great and not losing any sleep. Just staying informed exercising reasonable caution. +1 Yeah, I'd +1 that too. I don't want to diminish what's going on. This thing is definitely a nasty bug. But the reaction to it is definitely weird. I lived in Toronto during SARS (I actually worked on the subway during the crisis) and I lived in London during H1N1 (England was one of the harder hit places). But I don't remember anything like what is going on right now. There was a general level of concern (I started to cough in my elbow) but life pretty much went on as usual. I don't remember being any shortage of masks in the heath care sector. People definitely didn't stockpile masks. The markets certainly didn't care because we were all fucked at that point anyway. I just don't get why things are so much different this time. Social media This

@Castanza LOL yea. If absolutely nothing else, I found it an interesting mental exercise to consider the ramifications of the only thing we can definitely say about Berkshire/Buffett the past week or two. They were buying Delta...now extrapolate

Im a complicated fellow, what can I say?

Fair enough. I believe you that there may be little to be done for those who are so far gone. What I found distasteful was the lack of apparently concern for those and others who could be saved. However, as someone mentioned above, there needs to be some emotional distance that the doctor keeps, and I can certainly believe that. So maybe I just have the wrong projection on the level of empathy that medical professionals *should* have vs. what's reality. Either way, this has been educational in terms of how inadequately we are prepared for this (and other diseases), so we're all along for the ride. Thanks for the engagement. Again, I meant no disrespect before. Can you imagine trying to do emergency surgery on an infant? Or telling a young person they have cancer? Its fucked up but you need to kind of be mentally deranged or semi sociopathtic to live with it and still do your job well without it bogging you down. Its kind of like working on Wall Street. Except you're actually doing something useful.

I'm sorry, you work in healthcare? As in caring of people who are ill, with the goal of them getting better? There are goals and there are realities. The reality is if your old and/or immuno compromised your more likely to die if you get the corona virus. Without a cure what exactly would you like a healthcare worker to do in that situation? I know that the internet does not convey tone well, so please believe me when I say that I mean this in the most sincere, non-offense way - I think you should find another line of work outside of the healthcare industry. If your default response whenever someone is ill with an unknown illness or an illness in which there is no cure is to suggest that there's nothing to do, then perhaps trying to help those in need of help is your calling. You clearly have never met a doctor if thats what you think... its almost a prerequisite for anyone more than a nurse to basically remove emotion from things and strictly stick to protocol. Often times protocol is not warm and fuzzy.

Yea its definitely a bit challenging figuring out the eventual dollar flow to specific companies. The best Ive been able to do with certainly is probably come back to a company like Illumina. But thats not to say these companies won't benefit. The honest answer is its hard to tell. Its encouraging to see some of the backers of these companies, ranging from multi billion dollar pharmas like Vertex and Bayer, to Google Ventures and the Gates Foundation. Ive found, scientists are very smart dudes and I dont discredit what they say(same with all the medical experts speaking about corona) but they are much more academics than they are financially savvy individuals. They get wound up in theory and exercise but often remain as clueless to the investment ramifications of things as Joe the Plumber. That said, all of the people in the field Ive ever encountered, talk about this as if they're Columbus encountering the Americas. Endless potential. So its something to be excited about and the securities will act as a mechanism for those that follow to make some money. "Trading" may make some uncomfortable, but its a good hedge to the risks we've already discussed on the subject.

There's that, and there's also the other side of the media fear mongering; people actually have information available necessary to take precautions against this. Much harder to get information out to the masses(especially on a global basis) back in 1918. People will bitch about the "information" being released, mainly because its a convenient cover to express political frustrations, but the bottom line is that the public is aware of this and has been for weeks now, which if nothing else, allows folks to be on alert.

Ray Dalio https://westfaironline.com/121925/ray-dalio-covid-19-will-create-emotional-but-not-economic-impacts/ While Im not a huge Dalio fanboy, what he says, seems on the money. Obviously fertile grounds for long/short strategies. Be careful about what you're buying. Dont be irrational. Seem like how we should always invest....