Gregmal

These are just politics inspired assumptions you’ve made. Should bailouts happen? The answer varies depending on ones beliefs. Will they happen? Absolutely. And if you can’t acknowledge that, or that it has little to do with who is in office, then there’s not much else to say. With bankruptcies and junk bonds tied to E&Ps, they should all be wiped out. But this obviously conflates Wall Street problems and normal every day normal person problems. There’s ways to wipe out one without the other, but often there is overlap. It’s just odd you can’t comprehend this. Trump really does seem to occupy quite a lot of space in your head and elicit some pretty severe expressions of those feelings. Let it go. If nothing else but for your own wellbeing. My life was good under Trump and good under Obama. I cant imagine running around fueled with such constant animosity over something that really isn’t in your control or worth festering over...

They already do much of the same with utilities. So there’s steps that can be taken without completely turning everything upside down. Berkshire, the ultimate capitalist company, finds this setup compelling enough to represent a significant portion of their business portfolio. Bottom line is O&G is and has been a shit show for sometime. It’s volatile, for many actually massively value destructive, and probably outside of auto, run by the worst types of people. I don’t invest in this space for much of these reasons, but I mean to at the least, be able to understand why certain measures are currently being taken to protect things(irrespective of agreeing or disagreeing with the action) is not hard. But of course, here’s Dalal again with his Trump conspiracies and loudmouth rambling, foaming at the mouth just waiting to accuse all others of the same things. Governments, especially in times of crisis, have demonstrated they will do whatever is necessary to prop up the country. Yes, bailouts, subsidies, money printing, etc. You don’t have to like it, but you’re a fool if you don’t understand that this is what they do. Pretty much every time. Energy is on the brink, so expect them doing and saying whatever it takes.

Isn't a lot of this missing the point that while $5 gas isn't healthy, neither is $1 gas.. There is a happy medium "range" which allows consumers to function and the energy industry to employ millions of folks. At $5 they can employ many more millions, but the net effect would be millions of losses elsewhere. At $15 a barrel hundreds of thousands, if not millions will lose jobs.

The kids, 1 and 3 are oblivious to the world around them and both happy and energy filled all the time. While my job certainly hasn't ceased(despite sometimes wishes of such) it's still great having everyone home and together. Also, being able to help out others has been gratifying and further puts into context/highlights how utterly shallow and unfulfilling the pursuit of money is. Its given me thought of accelerating part of my life plan to transition to something like a non-profit or volunteer group. Money really isn't everything, and times like this, in a weird and fucked up way highlight whats important in life. Also, the boat is in the water and spring has arrived!

I think this corona tide going out has shown many of us to be in full speedo mode. i intentionally have 2/3rds of my portfolio in cash since I never want to work another day in my life, but my 1/3rd allocated to equities is definitely sucking wind. the only guy who seems to have done well is ackman, who bought credit default swaps at an apparently very cheap price. warren for one seems to have sold airline stocks at a point in time when you would think he would be greedy and not fearful... Yup, anyone who has stocks right now "looks" bad. Thats just how it works during times like these. Remember all the market is rigged and investing is a scam talk from 2008-probably 2012? How "we'd gone nowhere since 2000" talk? Its just psychological and probably even counter productive to look at things from the angle of "here's what the returns look like after everything just imploded", no shit they look bad. Warren Buffett bought DAL at $48 and 3 weeks later sold at $24... His banks like WFC? Just as bad. It happens to everyone and its ultimately what squeezes out weak hands and creates opportunities for others.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/so-many-to-blame-for-coronavirus-crisis-so-dont-bother-goodwin/ Good opinion piece on the "blame game" everyone wants to play.

To be fair, it’s not just the US, 68 countries have banned exports of PPE.. https://globalnews.ca/news/6769162/canada-medical-supplies-coronavirus/ Germany blocks truck full of protective masks headed for Switzerland https://www.thelocal.com/20200309/germany-blocks-protective-masks-headed-for-switzerland More important question is not whether US will provide masks but why a so-called advanced nation like Canada cannot even produce enough masks for its own people.. Nice find Mcliu - kudos to you for providing some unbiased balance to this topic. Cwericb - read it and weep. 68 countries have banned exports of PPE. Cwericb - ...and I am still waiting for you to prove out your bold faced lie.... This is kind of my point that Ive made before. Some of them have zero objective in bringing balance to the table. No context. Just an agenda. Just like how its stated "clearly exponential growth" but then when there is an obvious slowdown its presented as "*might* have flattened"...

Yes, I posted here(just in case anyone questions it) https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/prty-party-city-(short)/msg397196/#msg397196 Was a popular thread as you can see. But there's a lot like this now. Stuff that is just entirely inevitable given whats mandated. Had mentioned others a few weeks ago like CHK, WLL(just filed), and some others. Couldn't get it together when all was well and debt available to everyone...now? Toast. Almost a sure thing. My natural inclinations are to pick off good longs. But along the way there are safer and surer bets such as these. Easier IMO than the airlines or cruise ships. Those at least have a reasonable shot at assistance and a case they were healthy before all this. Ford is probably a pretty decent hedge bet on the short side as well. Poorly managed, highly indebted, changing auto landscape and massive freeze up in sales is a bad recipe.

Party City short to 0.

Yea. But shouldn't those people have some dough to tide them over though this? Plus calling 200k a year households middle class is quite a stretch. No matter the location. Isn't NYC median household income something like 60k? Well if you eliminate all the homeless people its probably much higher...j/k I do know plenty of families who would argue otherwise. I consider them dumbasses but a few particularly. Husband and wife make combined north of $300k. Nanny for the kids, Porsche and Escalade cars, Vacations and Eurotrips multiple times a year, dinner at Le Bernardin once a week... if checks stopped tomorrow they'd be belly up by May 1. Big part of American culture has become living large and having things.

Yea and for every skunk like the Kushner's or probably a gazillion other Wall Street firms or corporations like Cheesecake, theres a hardworking citizen cutting expenses to the bone and scraping pennies together so they can make their rent/mortgage, simply because its the right thing to do.

This just shows the importance of those institutions and what a mess it would be if they were shut down. Personally, all my tenants paid April. One lost her job but still got rent in on time. Ive already reached out to her about creative solutions to the extent things dont improve. But all in all, bullets dodged this month. I have seen massive amounts of folks laid off and furloughed. Some sadly, ones that just left previous jobs of long standing for exceptionally better jobs.

Ive actually said to myself a number of times over the past few weeks while walking the aisles, why the fuck is ANYTHING on sale right now? I'd either be at full price, or a modest(but not egregious) bump simply to level out folks buying more than they need. No one is buying 100 rolls of toilet paper if its $4.99 a roll. Or .79 for one and then 4.99 quantities 2-5 and 9.99 6-10, etc.

I think theres a couple things to consider. This recession, is not like GFC. GFC was led entirely by the banking and financial system. Those institutions are the lifeblood of EVERYTHING. Those things freeze up, and everything else goes down. Here that is not the case. Banks are healthy and well capitalized and stimulus is being pumped out through lending programs that should, in time, lead the way back. From 08 until what? maybe 2015... this aspect, lending, was removed from the market. I remember in 2012 I was a couple years removed from college and couldn't get a $400k mortgage with $160k annual income and an 800 credit score(with all those first time home buyer programs as well). Businesses in certain areas will go belly up. But there will be capital(cheap capital) incentivizing those willing, to get back out there. New businesses will emerge. Perhaps the only differences is that people will be a little smarter. My major concern with this setup is not the obvious corona industries. Its those PLUS all the energy jobs that will be disappearing. Those two areas are a major component, especially in some of the go-go states. Thats why an infrastructure plan could be massive for the US.

http://www.openculture.com/2018/01/how-isaac-newton-lost-3-million-dollars-in-the-south-sea-bubble-of-1720-even-geniuses-cant-prevail-against-the-machinations-of-the-markets.html So yea, dont feel bad about your airlines fellas.

Optically it’s pretty poor taste. But reality is most of the equipment in terms of supplies is probably coming from China anyway. Some shit, huh? The reason Trump became a great politician is the reason he s the wrong leader for unique times like now. It’s always about winning with him. He will play to win at all costs. Right now, nobody cares about winning, they’re just trying to survive. Hence he comes off like an animal.

The problem with airlines and oil companies is that filing bankruptcy and starting over is like asking for a piece of chewing gum or bumming a smoke. Routine, no shame, just normal course business. Competition doesn’t really go away.

Haha yea thats nuts, but I'm rooting for ya. As long as its not something I own!

On the flip side, didn't Buffett sell out of a rail company before buying BNSF?

You are still allowed to go out for Happy Hour in NYC? I am gobsmacked. Its Trump's fault. Or Dalal is lying(something he s been called out on here for).

I and "my" POTUS screwed you! LOL Do you hear yourself? Real liberal syndrome there. Im one of the few here who's time and again been capable of both praising POTUS and criticizing him. There arent many who have even half ass objectively done both. But for arguments sake...who IS responsible for NYC??? The POTUS? The Mayor? The Governor? What is POTUS exactly expected to do with a filthy blue city whose political composition is lefties who hate him, refuse to work with him, and rather play games? Commit to something here bud! Assign %'s to the NYC blame? Surely De Blasio gets more than Trump?

Wrong wrong wrong all day but "I have so much confidence" Gregmal. So you won't commit to a number to judge by then? Yea sure, change the subject and then ask me to go back and look through 300+ pages for your quotes which you've already been called out for changing and lying about... Nice!

Commit to something Dalal? Come on. I know its hard for you folks. Deflect, deflect, deflect...

So since deaths are a good barometer, commit to a number to then judge? Clearly its millions no? You've said as much before.... or are you backtracking?

Ive had this happen unfortunately. Its a pain in the ass process and a total joke. But in order to file the report and have the credit agencies and banks protect you, you need to go to your local precinct a file a report. Nothing will happen. You'll give a statement. Provide the statement to the agencies who give you a "fraud victim" badge, which then puts alerts on your credit reports and ANY time in the future you apply for anything(or anyone else does) they are mandated to call you personally and verify. You're reports will also be eligible for 7 years of free freezes and unfreezing. For me, some (insert a non PC word) used an old apartment mailing to open up a Verizon account and get an iPhone and iPad. I got collection calls for 6 months thinking it was a scam. Somehow I realized it wasn't and had to do the above. Good luck with all of it. Probably takes 30 hours of your time to sort out.