Gregmal

I dont have as grim an outlook on housing as some, but you can certainly call me skeptical if the plan is to let the average bloke go 3 months without paying and then expect them to get whole in a one shot lump sum payment; even if most of that lump sum is given to them by the government. I just dont have a lot of faith in the honorability or financial discipline of most average folks in America or Canada. The odds of many of these folks maintaining large balances in their bank accounts for extended periods of time is not something I'd bet on. Only thing going for the other side of the argument is that restaurants and travel arent spending options for them right now...

I think the current situation can create short term disturbances. But my feel was that things had already begun softening and one of the most under appreciated aspects of that was the SALT deduction ban.

Well orthopa, that’s what I’ve been getting at. They(those you listed and a few others) say a lot, but don’t really say anything either. They just call you names and make up political narratives.

So, theoretical question, but what exactly would folks here think if, when the next filings occur once this has passed, that WEB did NOTHING here but buyback stock at a similar clip to the previous quarters? By nothing I mean few new equity purchases, no major acquisition, not meaningful buybacks, and continued cash build?

There is a reason the market fell as it did and that the fear index was at 80. Its all related. EDIT: to this I'd also add, just look around, here, everywhere. Almost everyone is panicking like hell, and those that arent are viewed as crazy. EVERYONE is currently a "short term trader" trying to predict what the market will do in the next 1-3 days....definitely a unique set of circumstances.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28963428/espn-burke-symptom-free-positive-test These are the stories we dont really hear about often. Just the 36 year old mother found dead with her kids and the 22 year old with no underlying conditions....

The tri state quarantine is, to my knowledge, changing very little. Trump should just fuck off and leave it to the governors at this point. We're all pretty much on lockdown already.

I spoke with a contact working at a 911 call center earlier. Typically they get a few hundred calls during peak hours. Lately they've been receiving in excess of 8,000 per day. Most of which are people with "flu like symptoms" wondering if they need to go to the hospital. So yes, take it seriously, but this shit cuts both ways and all the hysteria certainly isn't doing us any favors if we are genuinely concerned about overloading our resource capacity. Its a shame this has to be political as well. A living Democrat/Republican/Independent is almost always better than a dead one. Awareness is the biggest thing here, but once again, scaring the shit out of everyone will also just make matters worse. Similar to why they probably, incorrectly, told everyone masks dont work. If they said that they did, no one would have them, period.

Pure Cycle- no debt, $20M+ cash FIZZ is the epitome of a fortress. To boot, its hard to see how they arent going to produce possibly record sales for at least a quarter or two on the back of this supermarket rush. Look at the share count, short interest, and a few other things, and this could be interesting. FRP Holdings- they've been prepping for times like this, maybe that cash gets put to work. They are buying back shares. Home Depot/Lowes are probably good additions to the list as well.

Of course you owe nothing to anyone. But then that begs the question of what exactly are you doing on an investing forum? And what exactly you are getting out of these rants? Ive probably been more transparent with respect to disclosing positions, setups, and ideas than 95% of folks here. Many of us sold heavily in Q4/Q1 on valuation concerns. Even shorted. So if you did as well, great. And no this isn't to say the portfolio looks sterling right now, it doesn't. If you are a doctor, especially in NYC, you probably have bigger things to worry about anyway. Regardless, and genuinely, good luck with all that. There's more value to what you're doing there than there is fumbling around here and on Twitter.

Come on, this is turning things upside down. Credentialism is unnecessary unless you first bring it up yourself; nobody here knows my profession as I've never told you what it is. When someone first comes out saying he's an MD while making medical statements therefore sounding like someone who knows what he's saying, then later deletes that comment because perhaps he's really not, then of course that's on him. Not on the person who noticed and comments on it. Exactly. There was another fellow, by the name of RuleNumberOne, who was basically run out of town for saying a lot while also arguably saying nothing. In hind site, RuleNumberOne's repeated rants and warnings proved to be highly accurate and probably some of the most valuable postings thrown together on this board the past year. But nonetheless, screaming loudly while essentially offering up no useful investment angle, many find to be a distraction, at least on an investment website. Dalal and others have offered some valuable stuff, but the ranting and raving and attacking is just unnecessary. If I make a statement, like "I think this is fertile ground for long/short", I try to communicate this clearly and give examples of what I'm doing, as do others. Hopefully sometimes there is reciprocation which is what makes this place great. Not insinuating the end of the world but refusing to actually make a market call. Not "I'm buying puts!" despite outrageously expensive premium costs, while giving no specific underlying name, or strike or date... and then hooting and hollering when the market moves. Buying puts on cruise ships and airlines is a horrible risk adjusted idea right now; even if they end up making money. Its like the guy who wins the lottery and boasts of his skill even though everyone qualified knows the odds still said buying lottery tickets is a dumb money move.

It's simply just not true, ref. the topic title : "The optimistic take on Covid-19". I'm still at least once a day thinking about when I'll get sex the next time. [Not to be confused with "Was the last time really the last time?" - You know, active [agressive?] approach versus resignation & capitulation.]. I've also been pretty active with regard to keeping the supply chain intact for the household with regard all kinds of groceries [food], beverages [beer & wine] etc. The boat launch near me has been jam packed every day. beer > covid Cheers to that. Bud light, Marlboros and walleye fishing for some reprieve

Got together a group of people to be on call to make “small essential” grocery runs with delivery to front door for members of a local community with high percentage of elderly folks. Lot of small ways everyone can chip in.

Aren't we trading where the economy is in 6-12 months instead of where it is now? Not saying we won't go down further or anything (who knows), but obviously the market is forward looking. Yes, I understand that. The market also doesn’t really care about death and so forth, it’s a cold calculating machine. But my thinking is that the economy in a year will looks substantially worse than it is right now. I am just not buying into the V recovery. In any case, even if you buy the V recovery, it seems already priced in. The longer L shaped or U shaped recovery like we had in the GFC is by no means priced in. This is worse than the GFC in my opinion. Possibly way worse. So the million dollar question of course then is still, the same one as it always is. What do you pay for an asset? What about a quality one? If nothing else, the recent Fed actions make that multiple greater in my opinion. Bonds are nil. Is it reasonable to think the average multiple reverts to say 14x or whatever has been the longer terms trailing SPY multiple? Or do we incorporate both the big earnings slowdown but also the unique rate/money printing going on? Maybe I'm wrong, but healthy, cash generating businesses like Berkshire(just an example) in theory to me, could be quite easily justified here, even with estimates heavily slashed.

5% of their known cases are dead. And their cases are clearly growing exponentially (see link), but confirmation bias is a helluva drug. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state) Im going to post now. Im going to go away for 30 days. Trust me, last post for 30 days. Promise Now I'm back 12 minutes later, I'm retweeting every 12 seconds. I'm back I'm going away now. Now I'm back Just kidding here's more Walking Dead stuff. What exactly are you peddling here Dalal? The Taleb infatuation is curious. He s a media personality. Should we also start quoting the Cramers and the Jon Najarian's of the world as well? I was right (so was Taleb). You were wrong. You add negative value to this thread. Now go back to the politics section you frequent since you are a connoisseur for high quality, impactful level of forum posts. It is also a safe space for (former) Trump supporters like yourself. And Peter Schiff was right about the mortgage crisis too because he yelled loud for a while and then screamed even louder afterwards. Then, like Taleb, does his TV rounds and writes books basking in the attention. Others got to work and figured out how to make a few bucks in the markets during that backdrop. So I get why Taleb does what he does, you though? Aspiring author? I'm now really done here. Like really. Really really. Best of luck with the zombie apocalypse.

5% of their known cases are dead. And their cases are clearly growing exponentially (see link), but confirmation bias is a helluva drug. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Washington_(state) Im going to post now. Im going to go away for 30 days. Trust me, last post for 30 days. Promise Now I'm back 12 minutes later, I'm retweeting every 12 seconds. I'm back I'm going away now. Now I'm back Just kidding here's more Walking Dead stuff. What exactly are you peddling here Dalal? The Taleb infatuation is curious. He s a media personality. Should we also start quoting the Cramers and the Jon Najarian's of the world as well?

No the government cannot bailout the entire economy. While the headline number of $2T is large, a lot of this is jut loans and liquidity bridges, it has to be paid back. The US economy is ~$22T in size, so $2T is roughly equivalent to one month of GNP. It is too large to bail out. The $2T is just a stopgap measure to prevent dominos from falling. They pro half will still fall, but slower and more controlled. Also as you noted, a lot of folks will fall though the crack, have no health insurance, might get sick from the virus. How to restart this is going to be a difficult task and a fine line to walk. The Eastern get back to business date seems quite unrealistic to me, but numbers will dictate what is going to happen. Infection rates need to be way doen in order to open up again and even then, it will partly feel like quarantine. As it imagine a lot of measures still remain in place like no large crowds etc. I think this year you can forget about sports for example. might actually be a golden time for esports - Formula 1 did already an esports race they found quite an audience. Another thing, think about litigation risk. You go to work, get infected though a colleague and go into the ICU. Sue the company and then get a good lawyer who proves that the companies practices were endangering employees, which I I can guarantee you almost any company does. Examples - Dirty door handles which are not cleaned, no contactless entry possible, no contactless operation of bathrooms, shared microwaves in cafeterias. In litigation friendly America, that’s going to be a feast for lawyers. The government is and will continue to take measure that down the line, create absolutely massive amounts of inflation. I agree as well re: litigation. A few very well respected lawyers Ive spoke with, including at public firms like Burford, have this entire thing circled and are just waiting to cash checks.

What we know for sure is that the government has basically guaranteed a bailout to bridge the gap between pre corona and a return to normalcy. The tricky part, really the only one, is to avoid getting snagged in an investment or business that doesnt have a firm footing on its own, or an ironclad bailout. From another thread, here's a interesting scenario to highlight. Two working parents, one a party/event planner for a reasonable sized corporation. The other a consultant to the energy industry and thus an independent contractor. Both made good money in 2018 and 19. The contractors work dries up and the event planner is laid off. Away goes their health insurance. Away goes their income. Their eligibility for stimulus money is nil because of their previous year income levels. And the contractor cant even file for unemployment....Their only fallback? An rental property in NYC, where the mayor just told tenants to stop paying rent... This is potentially the scenario of a friend of mine, and one that could very easily apply to companies in jeopardized industries as well. (Note to myself and other small cap value investors: think twice or maybe three times before buying that distressed microcap hotel operator with owned real estate at 30% of book) But all in all, the funny money being pumped into the system makes it impossible for stocks to ever get too cheap, for too long a period of time. If nothing else the scarcity and supply demand aspect for HNW and institutional dollars will keep the valuations elevated. More dollars and less assets can really only lead to higher prices.

Bought a few SDS calls into the close. Kind of hoping to hedge out and "get ahead" of those looking to "get ahead" of those getting out of the market before the weekend...

Yup, this thread started out pretty interesting and informative(Viking and Spekulatus for instance I found greatly helpful in their shared thoughts) but I moved on as it became clear there was little useful discussion for investing but rather became an echo chamber for people to ramble like drunken clowns and drum up nonsensical doomsday hysteria, zombie apocalypse wet dreams, with an overcoat of political bias. I think the best investable ideas I could pry from anyone was Dalals "RCL puts" which was basically retail investor on twitter worthy, ignorant of its 200%+ annual negative carry cost. Some people just lost it. A forum full of value investors and BRK was recently trading under book but everyones scared and I guess their cash is currently earning 0% in quarantine.

I guess my bigger point is that there’s a few greater things to be cognizant of. Bad companies and those exposed have been destroyed. So have some good companies. Just in my universe FRPH traded to 30s. GRIF saw a $29 ask. MSG(obviously effected) traded to a 30% discount to just the Knicks if you factor in the $400m for Forum. AYR traded less than 1x EBITDA. These are maybe/maybe not the bottom but unsustainable. So a lot is priced in, in certain areas. That said, we also saw a mega year period of low volatility. It would not be unreasonable to now see an extended period of super volatility. Just be on your toes stick to what you know. The demise of some is the opportunity of others. The strong tend to come out stronger. Everyone loved BRK at 225, and still probably likes it, but even there I’ve sensed some love lost. Noise comes in many shapes, sizes and mediums. My 2c guess is that anything can and will go anywhere, short term. But once we get through this, if you stuck with the right stuff, those things are going to go ballistic. I don’t need to remind anyone what decade came after the Spanish Flu... and that’s without helicopter money getting poured on everything.

I thought the general point was obvious, and didn't think things would devolve into stupid nitpicking. Since it didn't technically go down exactly 40% in exactly 4 weeks, there s obviously no reason this employment print shouldn't have gapped us down another 10%....got it.

In basically 4 weeks S&P basically went from 3400 to 2250. So it’s a little odd people are so caught off guard by, a bounce.

Yea, the numbers may change and will short term get worse, but for Christs sake, shit just went down 40% in a couple weeks. Some things are definitely priced in.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease. Which do you think is more likely? These people suffer from some of the most extreme commitment and consistency bias I've seen. Don't waste your time - not worth engaging w/ these people Or, maybe, you know, on a investment board, some people look at a short term situation, call it the flu, call it coronavirus, call it whatever you please, and realize that there will be a time where this passes and that in between the baby often gets thrown out with the bath water and as such find the overreaction to be silly. Or that there will opportunities both long and short, and that "all cash" in a zero rate environment, or "shorting RCL" with a 200%+ annualized carry isn't the only investment on the table. Has little to do with commitment bias. Has to do with your outlook and time horizon. A consistency bias would be, I dont know, riding a second rate FNMA thesis through the greatest bull market in history, clinging to every bs legal filing, and then still seeing a 60% drawdown via the zombie apocalypse virus. To each their own.