Gregmal

Great investment thesis, Greg. [And from here, please don't expect me to participate in this topic.] Well Greg is wrong there but the feeling he's basing the decision on is real. What he should do (if he really wants to put "who knows?" to rest) is do what he does when he decides to invest in a stock. He wrote on this board he looks at stocks and looks for a reason that makes it uninvestable so he can stop looking at it and move to the next company. That is easy to do here too (easier than with stocks, because the crap is so much more on the surface). Just look for insurmountable problems. Examples: Problems with the initial distribution (pre-mining or the founders continue to assign part of the mining reward to themselves for "development"). Problems with being centralized rather than distributed (what is the added value of a centralized crypto, either by organization or technically?) Is it even a cryptocurrency? Is there mining? Is it a token? is it a "stable coin" (aka unprotected, non-yielding loan to a not trustable 3rd party) Do the idea behind it, and the differences with Bitcoin make any sort of logical sense? Just those 4 questions will eliminate nearly all of them. Of course no-one has to do this, but saying it's unknowable is like saying it's unknowable which stocks are investable and which are not. Simply untrue (unless you take the statement literally: you can rarely know anything ever with absolute certainty). This is all true, and useful, but it doesnt totally provide answers to the bigger picture. There are myriad "issues". But all this has been around and known to various degrees, forever; ie its in the market. And yet here we are. Its the same kind of structural setup, and ideological "you think you know, but it just aint so" as we saw with all the super duper smart guys and their Excel spreadsheet Tesla short's at $30 per share. And $50. And $100...and so on. I was briefly one of them until I had an awakening and decided to step to the sidelines, acknowledging I just didn't know anything useful regarding the investment and what I thought I knew, consistently seemed to put me on the wrong side of the trade. If something has now, for a multi year period(or longer) consistently outstripped "consensus" and expectation, at the least it is prudent to respect it. If you sit there and watch something go from $100 to $10,000, I dont know, I think its fair to ask oneself, why? And how wasn't I able to take advantage of it? One of the most hilarious things I think this bull market has revealed, is how little the big, smart, pompous Wall Street guys really know in the grand scheme of things. They derided, and sneered at, and shorted AMZN from inception, to like $1500 a share. And now, you know, as it starts to get "toppy" and is worth like $1T USD, all of a sudden they find it a consensus long and even a "value play" L-O-fuckin-L. So sometimes, it pays to realize where you are in this vicious cycle, see if where you've been has made sense(and money) and if necessary, adjust or step away. At least is seems, and has worked, for me. A lot of times, Ive found that your risk/reward skew is significantly better if you are able to get comfortable allowing there to be a few ?, rather than impulsively "needing" to know EVERYTHING.

One final thought as I wind down a 12 hour day of reading earnings call transcripts and evaluating trade ideas for the upcoming week and pivot to sushi and a bottle of wine over TV with the wife(even though my mind likely still stays consumed with business and investing thought)... Re: the "who knows comment"... this is the only honest answer there is. You will never find a multi bagger unless some, if not many of the questions relating to the idea are honestly answered with something to the extent of "who really knows" or "no one knows"... when "everybody knows", you get Treasuries and CDs. On crypto and blockchain, I think it would be foolish for anyone, not to want to educate themselves on the subject. That does not mean or endorse investing in it, but simply making an effort to be open minded and understand it. There were a lot of people who wrote off a lot of disruptive ideas in their early stages. This may be one, it may not be, but personally, I find it inexcusable to potentially miss a major investment theme and possibly world changing shift, by being closed minded or pigheaded(or lazy). An investor should always at least seek to have background information on any subject, and try to answer the questions of who's making money, how are they making money, and why are they making money. And then not forget one can make money on multiple sides of the trade, not just one. Food for thought.

OK, Greg. Each to their own way. Personally, I'm investing for the long term, where the underlying earnings and cash flow generates the future earnings and capital allocation opportunities. So you're long TSLA? (kidding) Greg, What is it with you? -Please tell us something about what you're really up to .. - instead of all those [now hundreds of posts here on CoBF] about your <100 bps trades. - Please post your thoughts in the relevant investment ideas topics. -Personally, I don't see your posts there . [And please give me a break with regard to crypto.] I wasn't under the impression membership came with such obligations. Posting shares two primary purposes; engaging in thought provoking+pencil sharpening discussion regarding investment related content; and entertainment. Its a hobby that has tangential benefits with regard to understanding various market factors, including, what makes a market. I try to share with two things in mind, contribute to a community(as a member of any community should) and being transparent with what I am doing and why I am doing it(pretty much nobody in the financial industry is, and even less are on the internet). I delve into a third at times, which is debate(the purpose of which admittedly has little value). I dont know whats wrong with 100 basis point positions. In fact, a quick glance at any responsibly managed portfolio would likely disclose the same. Here's a link to the hero's investment portfolio, of which 80% in sub 1%... https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK I have been pretty clear how I trade and allocate. That I have 60%+ in my top 5 ideas and trade with a portion of the portfolio as it is essentially free money and if managed appropriately probably entails less risk than good old buy and hold. That it has been proven, time and again that owning assets, of pretty much any variety(within certain frameworks) will do better than holding cash. That the stock market has a natural inclination to go up in time. That theres certain scenarios and market conditions where an idiot could make money, in which case its an almost certainty that a sophisticated investor with proper risk management techniques can as well. I can and have gotten into extensive analytical discussion and debate on various names and topics, but am under no obligation to. Given how little many else here contribute, why is the burden of weight all on me, John? Would you prefer if I just sit around and moonwalk my thesis drift on why BRK is currently a meddling investment? Or spend days and nights trying to convince myself and others that Prem is about to get hot now and that he's due? Nah...I like it better being on the right side of things, and if that means calling Buffets conflicts and hypocritical behavior for what it is, or seeing that Watsa has lost his way, so be it. If it means buying things that are currently working while others sit on both their hands and their huge piles of cash.. too chicken shit scared to even make a sub 100 basis point investment...so be it. I like making money. Not everything I buy is for everyone, thats fine. My BTC can sit there with my Gretzky OPC's... I'm good. Funny enough both have to date, and now spanning multiple if not many years, been noteworthy performers...which I understand, in value investor world, must be scorned, for it is part of the Bible for many a folk to look down ones nose if money is not made and lost within the framework of the Intelligent Investor....

OK, Greg. Each to their own way. Personally, I'm investing for the long term, where the underlying earnings and cash flow generates the future earnings and capital allocation opportunities. So you're long TSLA? (kidding)

Great investment thesis, Greg. [And from here, please don't expect me to participate in this topic.] Agreed; one of the most compelling you'll ever hear! Sometimes I prefer to live a little adventurously. Some folks find $20 in their jacket pocket(metaphorically) and think they need to protect it, nurture it, and carefully compound it(probably at mid single digit rates). I, sometimes just say what the ef, its not changing my life either way. After all, my BTC, whether now or in the future, will provide me more to show for my money than that vacation one took last year, or that fancy restaurant you went to last week, or the sports car you bought in your 40's to solve the mid life crisis...its all relative. I try not to take everything so seriously.

I think its important to note that payment systems have and continually evolve in ways that are typically underestimated. Further, there is definitely a moving risk of government overreach. All the evidence you need to see is right there with how swiftly, and desperately they've moved to kill Facebook's Libra project. They hate this because they cant control it. At this point it seems unstoppable. The big question to me is "why Bitcoin" vs any other crypto, and is being the first mover a valid answer to "why Bitcoin". Really, who knows? I have a small % of personal money in BTC. I would in no way ever recommend this professionally or buy it with other people's money, but as a personal investment, I look at it as something as simple as "I can afford to" and just leave it at that. Its not a "portfolio move" and its not a trading strategy. I threw spare change on a monthly basis for like two years in my late twenties(several years ago now) at it and if I never see it again, I wouldn't even notice, and if it goes bananas, well thats what we play the game for and what investing is all about.

exited MPC

Added a little bit of ILMN after hours at 298. If the PACB scenario has taught anything, its how dominant ILMN is in that space. And its a beautiful space at that!

Closing PTON puts

Because the IV is massive right now since we are a week(less than) away from lockup expiration. For instance the $60 Jan 21s are now $10. If you spare some downside, you can probably re enter the trade as a straight short(or even possibly through options) with a much lower negative carry hurdle. TLRY was 450% heading into lockup and trading in the $80s. Several months later you could short it outright in the $60 for a tiny fraction of that cost. Once all those lockup shares start coming to market, the cost to borrow comes down. From there the downward spiral is all but locked in, and then valuation typically becomes the primary driver of value.

I bought some Jan 2021's ranging from $50-$100 strikes. Its basically a 2-3 month trade idea. I think the lockup easily takes 25% off the share price. The thinking goes, yea... straight short you're paying 175% neg borrow which can be yanked at any time and the rate can and likely will go up. Shorter dated puts are insanely expensive and a sucker bet. 2021s that are out of the money that far are only pricing in time value. Ive got like 16 months til expiration and if 2-3 expire, there s still a whole lot of time value likely for those options which still have a good chunk of value whether the stock goes up, down, or sideways. But if I'm right, and we get a 20-30% or greater move down on lockup expiring(which really isn't much of a stretch given how some of these things trade, let alone if you follow what TLRY did)....we eat well. Not all of them work out as planned, but this was pretty freaking easy. There's still likely a bit of downside, but the IV and derivative effects of that are probably peaking, so it's time to close this out. I'd again encourage those interested to look at TLRY chart to see where this ends up 3, 6, 12 months from now.

Covered OPK short.

DIS

Used all that analyst excitement as an opportunity to buy some PTON puts.

Not sure if this applies to your case, but often times with foreign securities, the broker will have to do currency conversions or cross exchange transactions, in which they mark up your securities. So if you put in an order at say, 11.02, its not going to work, vs 11.04 perhaps that covers the currency exchange, plus the purchasing of the shares(or taking from inventory) and placing an ADR in your account.

Started a little TPL.

covered a portion of the NFLX short from yesterday

added back into NFLX short

True up to some point. I think there's a difference though. If you look backwards at Berkshire there is not only history of good returns, but also a history of solid decision making and closing on savvy deals. In hindsight you can analyse what Buffett did and conclude: his thoughts on Geico, See's Candy, Coca Cola, American Express, Bank of America, BNSF, his hedge fund bet, etc. were spot on (and, in all fairness, not so spot on with Berkshire, Kraft, ..). But I think all in all history suggests that Buffett is a great investor, which would suggest future outperformance is perhaps possible. You still have to judge for yourself whether he is getting senile or not, whether he can generate alpha with such a large capital base and what will happen when he dies. But I think there is some predictive value in his track record. And if he starts dry humping Becky Quick on CNBC you can think "he's losing his mind" and sell your shares (though did he really lose it? Maybe he's just faking it). On the other hand, if you look at a graph and say: "I could have bought BAC at $22 and sold at $24 a few times", is there any predictive value in that? Why would it work in the future? Why would it be a more profitable strategy than buying at $22.50 and selling at $23.50? Or, even more extreme, than buying at $22.90 and selling at $23.10? Or than buying and holding? If the strategy stops working after a few months, should you be patient or adjust your price levels? Can you explain when and why the strategy works? Can you explain when and why it stops working? If you make the roundtrip a few times, are you simply lucky or are you a good investor? Maybe there are answers to these questions, but I don't think Cardboard has them. I for sure don't have them. Not saying you can't make money the second way. Just saying that I prefer situations where I can explain beforehand why I expect to make money, and where I can explain afterwards whether my thought process was correct. That way I can hopefully avoid making repeat mistakes. And it gives me a (tiny) bit of confidence if something blows up in my face. I get what you're saying but its not really intended to be an endorsement of "its done this before so it will do it again". Its really just a way to enhance returns while remaining flexible with liquidity to fit a trading range or area high probability entry/exit point into a larger thesis. Its not really worth doing this sort of stuff if you wouldn't want to own the security longer term, for starters. From there, I suppose the best way to summarize it is that you're taking a position at a point where short and long term value converge and either a) looking to generate an above average short term IRR, or b) build into a position at a favorable long term valuation. So short term, $199 has proven favorable for BRK as a trading point. Longer term, provided nothing crazy occurs, $199 is a good value as well. This convergence dissipates probably around $210 for the time being. Viking does it quite often. A lot of people dont like this because its something you have to see with your eyes and then make a judgment call on rather than throw it into a spreadsheet at stare at it...

I for one would like to point out that people talking about previous BRK performance are talking about things that are backward looking and based on hind site. Which is funny because Cardboard just posted "The Perfect Trade" topic(which wouldn't you know it, just worked again) and there were a bunch who took issue with it for the same reasons.... Personally I think looking backward and using hind site is incredibly relevant to forward assumptions, so I'm not sniding that...just the inconsistency amongst some, which frankly I think comes down to people differentiating trading(taboo) vs investing(THA ONLY WAY!), or failing to do so...IE its not ok to be backward looking and base a trade off hind site, but if you are investing, it is;...FALSE. If we dont learn from history, we are bound to repeat it. Patterns repeat themselves, the trend is your friend. Theres a million sayings similar to those that correctly deserve to be heeded. Its also important to note that trading patterns based largely off of psychological factors and purely technical market forces and a certain security, BRK for instance, outperforming, are probably more closely related to each other than many realize.

HTL

ESGR

Little more GRIF. Feeling like $36 is the new $35.

Greg, what's your time horizon here? -If you think carefully about it, really! - what does then matter -real long term? John, I like to think of my time horizon as forever....however...forever doesn't last forever. I could wake up tomorrow and not need the cash, I could wake up and need the cash, or I could not wake up at all. Thats true for every day for the rest of our lives! I think as investors we need to be realistic about what we expect but also mindful that consistent returns are better than inconsistent ones, and that compounding early and regularly do more for us than later and greater in amount. Ive owned a little BRK since January because I see the value, but I also cant help but think of the security as a product at this point, more so than a business like BAM for instance. Its probably a lower beta SPY or something like that, which is good. If your investment objectives are preservation of capital and probably willing to take on risk somewhere between a junk bond fund and an index fund, I think it's great. You're not going to lose your nest egg here, but if you're looking to compound at an average to above rate with consistency, I just dont see it here. I also think if you have certain rate hurdles or expected returns, it might leave something to be desired for quite a while. I've detailed my thoughts on the Buffett overhang, and at this point, I'm mainly just a fish swimming by a feeding frenzy to take a look, rather than dive in to the crowd. I'd like to see certain things happen first, which I've also detailed prior. I just dont think people are being intellectually honest when they derive some of these excuses when at the same time, we're talking about a guy who was so obsessed with making money that he neglected his wife and kids in ways he now regrets, BY ACCIDENT! He still buys food from the MCD's dollar menu! So to claim he's willfully leaving dollar bills all over the street is insanity to me. I wish he would still go with his gut. You can tell he still has it to a degree. But I dont like thats he s obviously holding back, and that he hasn't really been forthright about why.

Got my 50c in a few weeks out of JOE, so back into GRIF. Also sold 80% of my MPC from May