Gregmal

There's definitely truth to that logic....but what if you dont want to have to be that active? In that case you should just buy a 30%+ position in Berkshire Hathaway, short some ARK stuff and then go on vacation for 6 weeks and not worry about anything! Trust me, I did it!

Chamath is a grade A tool. People rip on ARK/Wood, but they've been doing it the old fashioned way, for a good many years now. Buy public company stocks, make their money as those holdings go up(or wayyyy up!). Chamath is a glorified stock promoter/pump and dump artist. Barry Honig 2.0 IMO

Inflation hurting RE is one of the biggest widespread, false narratives I consistently see people peddling. It is my belief, especially in certain areas(Sunbelt) that we're entering a phase not unsimilar in parallels to the mid 2000's. It will also mirror the tech bubble part one(late 90s) and tech bubble part 2(2015-now) in terms of how it plays out. First go around was warranted excitement but also ahead of itself, second go around is all that but with fundamentals to support it, and let it run longer and larger. And during housing bubble part 1.....mortgages where 5-8%...... EDIT: to clarify, I wouldn't exactly want to be a highly levered owner of certain RE assets, especially with a lot of short/mid term maturities. But otherwise, most of the higher rates = RE is fucked narrative, is crap.

Well, first, I'll say, its not all genius, just being in the market(as always) is important. Tangentially I was super disappointed because during my absence there was apparently oh so much hope that all of readthecliffnotes super duper highly important financial industry superstar professional friends would finally find their way back to COBF since apparently people like myself turned them off so much! Dont know what happened but was at the least hoping they could teach us how to make oodles of money like the big boys. Perhaps show us how to short highly levered retailers using an Excel sheet inspired declining same store sales thesis? I dunno. But for little old me....I generally just go with that dirty little thing called gut feeling. Spacs are all about 2 things. Price and Marketability. So if someone gives me a unit at $10, its free money. Because the warrant itself is worth something. You want a little bit of marketability in theme or even name. Meme-y shit is a check in the positive column. Also important and overlooked is warrant cut. Not all $10 units are equal. So as an example....BIOTU at $10. You have a hot sector theme...check. Meme-y name...doesnt get better then "Biotech acquisition", and then you've got a 1/2 warrant so at $10 thats money in the bank and from there you just have to decide for yourself whats the comfort level as the price moves up. But be careful as a unit at $10.05 with 1/3 of a warrant is not equal to a unit at 10.05 with 1/2 warrant. Unless it comps for it elsewhere. Like a superstar manager for instance. So I wouldn't necessarily buy the cheapest first but it weighs into the equation. As does big ticket manager or even shit as stupidly simple as a marketable name with a good underwriter, etc. Hope this helps everyone interested.

Thank you. Was good to hear about all the love.

As requested! The updated list. ACEVU- +43% sold on announcement 2/19 ACICU- +68% sold on announcement 2/10 CGROU- +38% sold on announcement 12/07 CFACU- +46% sold on announcement 2/12 CFIIU- +12% sold on announcement 12/1 ETACU- still hold FUSEU- +31% sold on announcement 2/12 SRACU- +88% sold after announcement FSRVU- +64% sold on announcement 1/12 FTIVU- +31% sold on announcement 1/25 LATNU- still hold FRXU- +22% sold on announcement 2/10 LSAQ- still hold SPNVU- +19% sold, broke 12 no news CAPAU- +137% sold on announcement 2/18 IGACU- sold most around 12 on speculation pop, but still hold some PTICU- still hold SRSAU- still hold OACBU- still hold new adds: FLACU, LWACU, FOXWU, BIOTU, SPGSU, IIIIU I think if anything based on dates and pops one can figure out where the top was, but the same could be said for many stocks if you use the recent chart as a marker. You could raise the issue on timing the trade as a risk, but I generally just keep it simple; sell on the day of the announcement, sell if it trades at too much of a premium to cash, sell if a real investment comes along and you need the capital. I view cash as garbage and with the money printers on full blast and showing now signs of stopping, I view these, especially now around $10 as a much better placeholder....even in some cases they are purely margined so add a 1% annual carry to the underwritten capital at risk. Then again Id also point out that Ive been doing this for years and not just something I started when it became popular 10 months ago so my mentality is different. But the idea of $10(floor), $9.50(doomsday), upside-multiples of the downside, has always sounded pretty good to me. It isnt/wasnt uncommon for these to trade high 10s or low 11s 8-12 months after IPO, even pre mania. I'm also OK just flip flop trading for 2-3%. To each their own though.

Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble. Indeed. It went up a lot and now down a lot because thats what bubbles do. The fundamentals probably arent relevant until $50 a share. Although $100 maybe be a support level cause its a nice round number and thats the type of thing retail investors predicate their shizz on. Kind like how RICK hit a wall at $69! In other news. Shorted some PSTH Jan 2022 $20 puts for ~$3.50, also cranked out some June $22.50s for ~2.50 Long live spac alpha.

You buy into select spacs right now because you have negligible(1-10%) downside and can quickly pivot out of them when better opportunities in the equity world arrive. I'd happily take a 5% haircut on a spac to buy into a great equity on a large-scale panic selloff. Heck, there was a point in time when 5% was a transaction cost. Its negligible in the right situation and in other situations its just temporary. I will try at a later point to update the list I posted some months ago but Ive only bought a couple the during calendar 2021. But theres very much a point to owning these here because you get certainty in a market thats shitting itself. You get a quick few % on a market rebound. You get a potential deal announcement. Some you get warrant separation. And most excitingly, around $10 you can T these motherfuckers up like nothing else. Underwrite whatever you want but take BIOTU at $10.04. I made this a ~10% position today. If a assume a worst case scenario downside of $9 for the UNITS(yea right), my capital at risk is 1%. Who cares about 1%? Whereas in these sort of scenarios, the upside takes care of itself.

He might, but he might not. And even if he does, its hard to argue its done anyone any good. I recall being long Blackberry leading into the eventual "fake bid". It was appealing from a value perspective and it was obvious they were really going to put the company in play. But when the best that comes of a real process is a sham bid from Fairfax at what was maybe IIRC a 5-10% premium....that tells you everything you needed to know. RUN TF AWAY. I actually came to believe that the BB deal was possibly more of a good publicity thing; bailing out one of Canadas national treasures...than it was a sound investment. FFH is stupid cheap here, but what it needs is an activist to come in and tell Prem..."you're done! No more investments. No more shorting. Either index or buy Berkshire"...if that happened this would probably rally 40%.

It is because pressure on hospitals has eased: [/img] How dare you use science and data to make decisions. LOL the same "science and data" Cuomo used when NYC hospitals were overcapacity and needed 30,000 ventilators in April but then in August when launching his book, all of a sudden they had more ventilators than they needed and the hospitals were apparently never even close to capacity? Or the science where men can become women overnight due to a "change of mind"? You tell me bud... Well, the only way the difference between April and August could be true is if....lockdowns worked? ::Audible gasps:: I think you misinterpreted it. Cuomo, in April, was talking about hospitals being maxed out. Then in August during his book tour, claimed he did a great job and that hospitals were never close to being over capacity(back in April). He either lied in April or lied in August. But thats the data and science they use so...

It is because pressure on hospitals has eased: [/img] How dare you use science and data to make decisions. LOL the same "science and data" Cuomo used when NYC hospitals were overcapacity and needed 30,000 ventilators in April but then in August when launching his book, all of a sudden they had more ventilators than they needed and the hospitals were apparently never even close to capacity? Or the science where men can become women overnight due to a "change of mind"? You tell me bud...

Exited DDS, FIZZ. Trimmed MSGN.

Dickbag Newsome lifts covid restrictions in CA now. Even oh so dangerous indoor dinning! I wonder why? 5 days later than I expected and a week after Cuomo, but interesting timing nonetheless. Here's your booming recovery Joe! Primed and ready. Almost like we manipulated the figures for you!

Took some of this off, also sold another 25% of GILT, swung proceeds of both into more BRK.

Personally, Ive never quite understood how people make and then lose life changing fortunes to a degree that it significantly effects their life. There's few "essential" big ticket items in life. To me, house, car, boat....House you buy once and then need to keep reserves for the repairs/replacement...car figure 10 year life cycle, maybe 15. Boat, we'll leave that one alone. But how folks can make hundreds of thousands, let alone millions, and not check those boxes is astounding to me. How dont you cash out and solidify those? Because once those boxes are checked off, you could probably work at Chipotle and still maintain a pretty decent quality of life. Biggest other expense is probably healthcare, which you can now get even with a part time bs job at Starbucks or Home Depot. You dont need to be a genius to see that "no mortgage/manageable mortgage, no car payment, couple toys"....makes life 100x easier.

Yea my 23 year old brother, super edjukated, UPenn grad student in biomedical engineering, told me over the weekend that all his friends(of similar backgrounds) are on the WSB forums chasing options and making small fortunes in their Think or Swim accounts. Its always amazed me how the markets can seduce people of all intelligence levels. I remember having an SMA client some time ago, guy worked for a similar type of company as Edward Snowden did, was a US Navy Seal with a Harvard education, must have ACAT-ed in a half dozen accounts with clean energy themed penny stocks....intelligence does not always equate to one's success in the markets. Sometimes the smarter you are, the more the market can play tricks on you. In the case of my brother and his friends, these are all kids who are going to be making 7 figures one day so getting a school of hard knocks education now is probably a worthwhile investment, but I'd imagine that isnt the case for everyone. Definitely a sign of the times though.

Most people confuse safety with volatility(or lack there of), so right off the bat, no. Anyone with any sort of vision or understanding of the productization of WS fads...sees(or saw) the setup. But its still just a speculation. Miller saw this before most, so he deserves some credit.

Grabbed some DDS for a one night stand. After the GME fun, who wants to be short going into the weekend?

Politics is banned right? Supposedly. Which is why I found it odd Liberty posted a partisan opinion piece by a partisan clown...so I just wanted to make sure everyone was aware of the context. Thankfully, muscleman beat me to the fact check.

Heather is an oaf. Typical academic liberal elite hack. Otherwise, good to see we are getting excuses on day 1.

IDK but if "the markets"(to use everyones favorite term) go up 85% this year, why wouldn't it be reasonable for folks who are bearish to still do 30%(which accounts for hedge related drag) and then use a portion of their profits to hedge out next year?

Even Buffett admitted last year that the market may be cheap if interest rates stay low. We just don't know. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/warren-buffett-says-stocks-are-ridiculously-cheap-if-interest-rates-stay-at-these-levels.html The market means different things to different people. Berkshire Hathaway for instance, is 99% confidence NOT in the bubble. MSFT is possible, but not likely. ZM, most likely is. One can start there, and plan their allocations for the next 3-5 years rather than the next 3-5 months. 80% BRK, 30% MSFT, and short 15% ZM probably works whether the bubble bursts or not. The names and allocations are just examples, so if you disagree, dont get too hung up on them. The one big thing with euphoric markets is that there are too many participants involved that shouldn't be. Their money is there for our taking.

Saying you dont know is bullshit. You know in the sense that you can tell there are unsustainable things going on, you dont know if tomorrow is the day that it ends. Its the same in theory as how you know you need flood insurance when buying a waterfront home in Florida, know you need wind/hail coverage in Oklahoma, and know you are better off without insurance on the crapshack country home in upstate NY. Sometimes more caution is warranted than others. The more data you haver to support more caution, the more refined your insurance can be.

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-01-19/chinese-scientists-develop-gene-therapy-which-could-delay-ageing

Swung some SPG into BAM, bought a few MSFT calls, and got a few shares of FOXWU IPO