Gregmal

Got some LWACU

Now it all makes sense! Both you fine fellas. Hahah cheers.

^ In that regard I think you just have to manage it. I set a hard accumulate limit under $10K and just stuck to that. Had a good long while to get the position. I thought there was ultra high probability that we retest and then break the old highs. Once enough air gets between you and then ground, you just want to constantly derisk. I have no intention to buy any dips. Just trim small and regularly as this flies. Who knows how wild or crazy the crash landing will be. SD is on point with his implied message that this is purely a traders vehicle. There is no intrinsic value, which is not to be confused with saying it has no utility. But its not like you have fundamental markers such as price to book or whatever with which you can implement a buy/sell strategy.

SD trading or Wabuffo talking about monetary policy....both are kind of like grad level university course poetry. You can see its beauty. You are captivated by its effortless luster, and ultimately leave appreciating it, but not really understanding it anyway.

I think HTB is just a designation for an elevated fee, currently I think ~2-3% although that floats. More important to keep an eye on available shares. Theres over 1M shares of ARKG at Fidelity and a couple mil at RBC. Haven't checked IBKR. Dont underestimate the brokerage industry's cleverness with disclosing fees. That HTB warning is often just the way they tell you they're hitting up your account for something.

Took another roughly 10% or so off CRSP, EDIT, BEAM, RPTX and paid down some margin plus added to ARKG short. Also tacked on a few more shares to TSLA short.

Theres your IPOE for the win. Next up from Chamath is F or something. Sold out of a few recently and the LSAQ train left the station, as far as pre announcement spacs go. CAPAU too did its couple % march towards warrant separation move too.

I think all opinions and offerings should be welcome but also all of them should be subject to ridicule and getting shit on. That keeps things honest. My 2c hasn't changed really. But taking a step back this investment was started in the early party of the decade under the Obama administration and there were a couple avenues, but it was largely a legal battle. Trump came in and it was OMG he/Mnuchin is gonna fix it, but the under appreciated aspect today vs 4 years ago is you have 4 years worth of legal time value now on your side. Theres good likelihood the journey on the legal front is nearing an end, and this ascribes no value to an executive order type of move. Its similar to the SPAC warrant which does have an expiration date, and if things dont roll your way its worth zero, but in any event, contrary to conventional wisdom, it should and usually is worth more the closer it gets to expiration.

Ive added about 20% across the board to FNMAS, FMCCL, FNMAH today. Albeit small allocation. But market neutral/event driven and both sentiment and expectations are pretty rotten right now. Yea, sometimes I just like to take the other side of a trade.

Im probably on a net basis, moderately below fully invested once you account for puts and shorts. More liquidity and powder than I've had in ages. Essentially long recovery/REITs and short the bubble stuff.

Swapped DD into BRK, added to ARKG short, bought more ARKK puts, sold LHSIF. Picked up a few more CLPR and MRG-UN. Shorted a bit more BYND as well.

Yup. we are entering our 2000-2005 moment, fellow value investors. Enjoy.

With all the people who apparently crushed the market in 2020, COBF should have no problem raising a few million.....

I do recall SharperDingaan's timely exit at $18k on the first run up. Been managing the position and already have several times the cost basis removed, so the dice continue to get rolled. Where it lands, no one(except maybe SharperDingaan) knows!

Guess who won GA? https://seekingalpha.com/news/3649177-bitcoin-declared-winner-in-georgia-election

Poo poo. The truth is that the holdup on vaccine rollout is that all the wealthy and connected folks are still on vacation and we're waiting for them to get back and get their shots. Once they do, then the normal folks can start getting it!

I think the gist of what he is trying to communicate is accurate. I posted in another thread something similar regarding trading, and how its viewed by some. Supply and demand is probably the single most important variable in an otherwise large equation. Thats why some shareholders throw temper tantrums with respect to dilution. There's so many "value" investors who are downright stupid or willfully ignorant when it comes to this. They "dont believe" in trading, and think trading is a "losers game" in the long run. Theyre idiots though. If I dump 3% of a companies shares inside of a day, no duh! it will create a short term imbalance. Now play with this example over different time periods. Its the magic sauce to why something like Dillards is repeatedly such an easy trade to make money on. This can occur on every level of the market from a single stock trade over a 10 second span to multi year(even decade) spans. Of course the fundamentals of the business matter as does your ability to get your money back. They too have a big place in the equation. But its more of a backstop and place of support that will eventually create a supply/demand imbalance. Its why buybacks are a huge beneficiary to long term shareholders. The fundamental idea of a buyback is that at a certain price, the company can exhaust the shares outstanding before it exhausts its assets/runs out of cash.

Also shorted some RICK $17.5 puts with May expiration.

Started some MRG.UN, also added a few LHSIF. Trimmed about 10% of my VIX call position as well.

The book 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Gilbert was a huge influence on my life when I read it. It was long ago, but the main points have always stuck with me. Recommended. I haven’t read the book, but this seems great advice. One thing is sure they happiness doesn’t scale with the money spent. Yup. One of the biggest traps is when ones lifestyle scales up with their earnings. People, even of modest means would be retiring 10-20 years sooner if they just stuck with what they needed and maybe a few toys and were content. The biggest ceiling facing middle America, IMO, is needing to recycle into a new $600 a month car payment every 3 years. That $7200 a year over 25 years, even if you suck at investing and only did 5%, is nearly $400k...Same thing to a degree, albeit with other nuances, with housing.

Up to $17M. Keep it going. Cant understate the importance of small businesses and keeping them alive, they provide jobs and a livelihood to many vs just some stupid stimulus check to individuals that likely gets wasted on discretionary crap and iPhones/sneakers.

I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds... Gary One of the best moves Ive made in my life(I like to think Ive made a bunch!) by far, was simply buying a reasonable sized house that I could see myself raising my kids in and living in for 30 years, at the age of 25. Its only 3,000 sq ft so every now and again I ponder what it would be like to have a gargantuan waterfront home or something like that...but at the end of the day, having a manageable housing cost is a tremendous advantage. Same with cars. Ive had nice cars but after a month its just another thing that gets you from A to B. After 6 months you dont care about it and $100+ oil changes and $200 a piece tires drive you insane, the same as your homes property tax bill-which never declines and always seems to outstrip inflation. The lower your recurring/fixed home+auto costs the more freedom you will have in life, or so Ive found.

On the institutional/product side, there's a lot of whats called a feedback loop. With early stage items, it can be very powerful. Recall how once the first couple institutions or funds finally disclosed being long Tesla, then fast forward a year from then, and everyone was doing it no problem. Imagine now having been one of the first movers in BTC this past fall, and having a +50% mark to market already? Or how about sitting on 20% ytd gains before the markets have even been open for one trading day? I continue to reduce 1-2% of the position after every 10-15% bump or so, but things should really start to get interesting.

Really? One year saving of travel and entertainment can change one's budget on a new home? That's hard to believe. Not at all. In the US the poor man(or hand to mouth fella) needs 3% plus closing costs to get into a home. If you save $20k by not dining out and vacationing, thats a down payment for some, or another half mil+ of home they can buy. I also think there should be entry taxes for states/jurisdictions. Its a big problem here in the US where you have people living in, and supporting the policies and fiscal irresponsibility of one state, and then not liking the bed they've made for themselves, and then collectively moving to, and starting to ruin new states by moving there and bringing their same philosophical issues and problems.

This is kind of besides the point, but I believe that quote you always see from CNBC about "you gotta be in the market because the 10 best days account for all of the return in any given year". It's such a cherry-picked fact. When did those trading days occur? Probably during periods of heightened volatility where the market was swinging up and down wildly. So in order to get the best trading days you had to stomach the worst trading days too. I've never actually looked at this before, but it confirms my suspicion about the "best trading days" garbage CNBC feeds retail investors. The attachment shows the 2020 trading days ranked in order (by absolute value of returns) and shows you that the best and worst days were clustered around March and April with a few exceptions outside that time. If you state how much of the market return occurs in a few best days, you also need to state how much of a decline you could have avoided being out of the market for the few worst days to make this assessment more symmetrical., yea Im not totally sure and while I find it interesting, I dont totally think its something to read too much into. Just something perhaps to consider. I am almost always 100% or more long and I am almost always positioning my available cash/liquidity to capitalize(market timing I suppose some will call it) on short term opportunity. Can do both I guess. Being out of the market is stupid, as this year showed. In fact, every market downturn has ended up showing this. But its also showed that you need to have liquidity available to really T-up a fat pitch.