Gregmal

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/21/david-einhorn-says-we-have-reached-the-fartcoin-stage-of-the-market-cycle.html LOL an LP really needs to slap this guy. A forever example of someone who rather remain pompous and think he's smarter than everyone else at the expense of making money.

This is kinda stupid if you think about it. If you start a company, you also own 100% of it...thats just common sense, not a gotcha moment.

Has anyone wondered what the impact would be if Europe and Canada diverted all the funds allocated to these dumb ass climate and diversity programs and instead put them to work in useful ways? Folks complain about Trump targeting these countries, but the truth is that everyone, including the US, have seemingly been resting on their laurels for the better part of the last decade. If everyone simply gets back to basics and stops the virtue signaling I can’t help but think this would be incredibly positive for productivity.

Ok, but I also wouldn’t confuse irrational exuberance with widespread suckery and scams. Especially with hard to understand new technology. It wasn’t irrational exuberance in 2010 when everything China went bonkers. I think the likeliest culprit is that simply the internet and these social media platforms allow proverbial wildfires to spread easier. I would be hesitant to extrapolate this to anything meaningful for the broader market or real businesses.

Im happy to answer questions in the JOE thread per @John Hjorth's suggestion, to the extent things dont get too redundant; in which case Ive probably already answered what I can. But to reiterate, all youre gonna extract from 2021/22s numbers is the builder sentiment form 2018-2020; and that they sold a lot of Camp Creek(a finite community) lots at $400-500k per.

And people wonder why US trades at 25x….

LOL another Twitter winner.

I dont think thats whats going on though. Whats being highlighted is simply to combat the widespread and rampant "this is what Buffett is saying or doing" stuff thats often thrown out as an excuse for taking a position. First rule of investing isnt as Buffett says "dont lose money", its "think for yourself".

Things were so extreme and emotional in Spring 2020 that there was only one direction we could have gone, and that was up. It was so screamingly obvious then, almost as much as it is in hindsight. I know plenty of people even on this board who murdered it. Was one of those generational setups.

I think CPI reporting is total bullshit and not at all reflective of inflation, but its fairly consistent in terms of what youre gonna get from the gov.

It’s hilarious reading this in the context of how he just blatantly ignores that the current administration has been cooking the books with the jobs numbers….TDS alive and well.

Well, it’s also fair to point out, in light of the ease with which we appeal to authority regarding Buffett, that much like when “Buffett was really bearish” around May 2020….he also sold much of his AAPL….like 20-30% below todays prices. Clearly not a great move if we judge it marked to market.

Theoretically you should. I don’t go to many weddings and the ones I do it’s close friends and family so the check we drop is way more than Id recommend for some bs acquaintance type event.

I think it’s a bit of both and the delivery is important. Charging people to attend is bush league. But there’s an implicit understanding that if you attend you at least pay for your plate. Today’s day and age it’s basically $250 a person. That’s not just your meal being paid for; you’re in effect paying for your share of the celebratory event for the couple getting married. That’s a gift. If it’s close family you obviously do more. The shit I don’t like is the no kids notices. If you’re inviting me, you know I have kids, either invite us all, or don’t. If I don’t want to bring my kids, that’s my choice, not yours.

I would take as much time as possible with the warning that the first little bit is a total nightmare.

Haha deep down I feel like you really know how to party. We re trying to do 4 nights in Montreal. Wanna see a Habs game. Wanna do some fishing. Wanna do some Ville-Marie things. I’ll probably fund most of it. Just asking these kids to take off a Thursday/Friday but they’re the late 20s top 5%ers who are glued to their careers and afraid to say I’m out for a few days. Doctor, Dentist, and a couple biomedical wizards. I’ll easily be the dumbest one there.

Yea I’m planning a bachelor party for my little bro and already running into “can’t get off work” for a few days from multiple people…can’t imagine living under those conditions.

Deo I’ve owned for a bit already and both TAP and STZ just seem like low hurdles that are better than bonds. MGPI has been a no brainer short since $110 but now seems fairly attractive given the portfolio, inventory, and credibility in the bourbon space. It’s got hair, but can easily see one of these undisciplined large caps throwing a couple billion at it.

Ex LMWS cuz that’s kinda a different animal; short term putting the 3 sub communities together it’s Ward Creek. Ward Creek is probably something a builder would pay $90m or so for today given its very clearly defined and has about 1200 remaining homes to be sold. There’s two types of communities JOE runs and it’s finite stuff like Ward or Park Place and then in perpetuity stuff like LMWS, Origins, Windmark, etc where they basically can build forever around them. Those you have to use the same approach as you would to valuing Ward Creek as a starting point, and then extrapolate quite a bit. My opinion is that the most valuable MPC has yet to even be built and that’s Lake Powell.

Generally, yea. They’re done and paid for, it’s cash in the bank.

A typical MPC would simply be its total entitled roofs at a blended through the phases profit per roof plus any commercial minus development cost spread across the time it takes to complete the project. With JOE, again it varies. CC you know is done. Take the remaining lots, ASP, tax rate. That’s your cash. At Windmark? You have to look at what’s listed on the table which is easy. And then make assumptions about what if anything they can do beyond that. I’ve just assigned value to the nearer term stuff listed on the table. I don’t need to know the totality of it or of Origins because I’m not paying for it here.

Like this is legitimately part of the “it’ll never get a real mark” thesis that to date has really been the only thing I can’t totally dispel. Bruce will stop eventually but, at the end of the day, even when it’s super easy and laid it there’s a complete refusal to do anything but use kinda half assed slapstick framework. Because the nature of selling lots is that they’re contracted well in advance. They take time to deliver. Pricing lags. Getting a full steam ahead market tomorrow has almost zero bearing on what you deliver NTM. Camp Creek lots where probably the only reflection of that, and those pricing were at 1/2 to 1/3 of what they are 2-3 years later. None of this has to do with a peak margin.

I’m saying you have great clarity into the future cash flows by looking at each specific community and then valuing it. If you get to $500m or $2b or $4b you then have to bridge the rest of the assets and commercial development plus non sector land with that number minus $1.5b/2b/whatever you or I or Kuppy wants to use for the defined CRE. The point is you don’t need to be exact cuz it’s like a half foot hurdle.

Yea see above. And otherwise, yea I guess talking past. Theres just so much not even in the ballpark and nitpicking it seems destined for fruitlessness. “A blowout re market” margin is reflected in 2021s financials where you had contracted lots from 2017-2019 delivered and a period from 2020 where nothing got done? For real? Not to mention margin is important but so is volume and there’s times when both work and there’s times when one does but the other isn’t. It’s always the same. Forecast based on past numbers, ignore substantial majority of assets, then be overly punitive x2 on existing, then say “it’s too hard” lol.

lol true that. I wear sweatpants 75% of the year and all I want is to upgrade that to board shorts. Drink Natty and Bud light. Seek to play 10-15 hours of Nintendo a week with the kids which will soon be replaced by golf and tennis. Who needs more?