formthirteen

Sleepy people be careful with this one. I fell asleep at some point during the second episode. I was probably a bit sleepy from the start, but there's not much happening. I will watch the third episode. Severance is an interesting idea on how to run a business, but not a new concept really...

Some of BRK, FFH, and COST.

Very interesting. Congratulations and thanks for sharing. I'm guessing the leverage was ~5-10x.

Interesting. Xi is a die hard fan of Mao and it seems Xi and the CCP are to some degree copying the strategy from Mao's "War on". IMO, the outcome depends on how authoritarian China is. Will the CCP adapt (let go of control) when/if they learn that the war on the coronavirus cannot be won, or will they double down on CCP's strategy to save CCP and Xi from humiliation? I guess we know the answer to that already. I hope they adapt, but wouldn't they for example have distributed other "unnameable" vaccines instead of Sinovac if this was the case? It's very interesting to see how each country's history and culture shines through in the way they handle the coronavirus (and the war in Ukraine). The more things change, the more they (culture, humans) stay the same (thanks to mindviruses like capitalism and socialism).

Tokyo Vice

HL.L, APAM, ALS.TO

Nobody buying banks when interest rates are "guaranteed" to go up?

Mr. Market does not like tech companies that have FCF. I have a tracker position in PYPL as well (5B FCF, growing ~20% / year). DBX is another one (1B FCF 2024E vs. current ~9B EV).

What's your thesis and view on the management of PINS? I see a profitable company with 743m FCF, 2.5B cash in 2021, MSFT and PYPL trying to acquire the company ~50B vs. current EV of ~14B, ~80% gross margins, ~20% operating margins, 500m MAUs. I have a tracker position and for some reason I find it difficult to make it any bigger.

- The first challenge is to keep control of Kiev which so far has been successful. - The second challenge is in the east where the Ukrainians might become encircled. Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia are key cities where the Dnieper can be crossed. - The third attack vector from Brest, if it were to happen, could cause panic even if not completely successful. - The fourth attack vector is the biggest problem. It follows the Ukrainian steppe in the south which allows for rapid advancement. Mechanized troops are vulnerable to attacks from the air.

Thank you Mr. Munger for saving the market! Does this mean SoTP valuation is great again?

Replaced the last of 9988.HK with some LEAPS in various speculative Chinese VIEs that can be cancelled by China or the West at any point or for any reason. Adding a bunch of variables and layers (time, etc.) can't make this speculative investment any worse than it is

Trimming 9988.HK on Friday and today. The BABA thesis has changed since I bought these sardines (war, COVID, lockdowns, focus on customer retention vs. growth, etc.). This was/is a small position which doesn't make any difference anyway. Good luck to everyone still holding. I might buy more LEAPS in Chinese tech in the future.

Yes, I agree.

Western culture is expansionary which is a threat to authoritarian regimes. It's correct that Western countries are not geographically expansionary. They can buy all the resources they need with money. This might change as Western culture is also trying to expand into the solar system. Maybe Elon's end game is to set up a technocratic regime on Mars because he sees where this is all heading (nuclear war, global warming, Californication, etc.)? He already moved from California to Texas, and he has talked about the possibility of dying on Mars.

This article was interesting: https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/ One could argue that these Western values and systems are what Putin is afraid of and what made him attack. Those values and systems are not compatible with Russian history and culture. Will it be different with China? It seems Munger was right in saying that Russia is uninvestible, and that China can be trusted to a certain degree to do the right thing. We just have to remember to not humiliate their politicians, and perhaps hope Xi isn't as authoritarian and delusional as Putin. https://www.e-ir.info/2011/02/04/can-china-be-defined-as-an-authoritarian-state/

KWEB ETF LEAPS

Had some cash and conviction in the stock, so decided to add. It feels safer to own shares backed by land in Florida compared to VIE contracts in the Cayman Islands. Chinese stocks will be fine and will likely outperform, just a personal preference right now to own stocks backed by real assets.

Sounds like he just decided to quit: Aravt's holdings were on average of very high quality TDG, CHTR, V, GOOGL, NOW, MSFT, etc. I watched his webinar a couple of weeks ago and thought it was interesting: I wish Yen Liow good luck with his next endeavor.

Added to ALCO yesterday.

Harvested losses from small positions in BABA, TME, and PDD yesterday and today. This is probably the bottom. I hope I don't buy LEAPS and shoot myself in the foot again. Still own a 2% position in 9988 bought at 118.

A slice of PM for later allocation to the diworsification portfolio.

Buying starter positions in dividend aristocrats ADM.L and IGG.L. Both are trading like there's a pandemic ongoing and WW3 just started.

Sold WFC, BANX.

Bought back a small position in BOO.L. Revenue is no longer growing at 40% per year and higher cost of labor and logistics might be a problem, but management seems to be capable of fixing issues.