formthirteen

Here, take my money

The NPS score maybe reflects the quality of their product and word-of-mouth marketing at the time it was done. It's just a model, reality is in front of our eyes. Are people dumping The Bike and The Tread? With a small position I don't care. It could drop 50% or more, and probably will at some point, just like Netflix has done multiple times. My intuition tells me NPS and shareholder returns are sometimes correlated. Temporary causation might exist and a study might detect this. The research would anyways be invalid for any specific stock, because theoretical models don't reflect reality.

Congratulations. I'm also thinking of buying I bought a starter position in PTON. The bike, the tread, PTON. This must be it, the top.

Now is probably a good time to try to imagine what it would feel like if a stock in your portfolio is down 50%.

Interesting that LMT is down 11.80%, should be a good cash substitute. I owned TPB for a while, but had no conviction and sold. NTDOY is interesting, but I'm skeptical of "the next Disney" thesis, maybe I need to dig deeper. I have no conviction in the INTC turnaround, maybe we don't even need one to profit.

IIVI (two six)

The North Water and Time both with Stephen Graham are quite good IMHO: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/the_north_water/s01 https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13138834/ Squid Game is a massive disappointment. I don't get it at all.

So he's saying everything in life is like a Rorschach test? Sounds about right

I'm crying even more today. $ASC.L down -14.53%. Bought a bit more shares.

This was a pretty interesting read: https://awilkinson.medium.com/the-berkshire-hathaway-of-the-internet-391a8ee83db I'm sure he has "better" lawyers now than in 1967:

Boohoo, I bought more $BOO.L and $ASC.L.

I have seen the future: Now I can't unsee it Big brother (CCP) is always watching and knows what's best for you and the community (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Pests_campaign). China Tower and China Mobile are two ways of investing in this future.

Ultra-fast fashion is not environmentally friendly. Automation and minimizing labor costs is not socially responsible (according to socialists). BooHoo might have some governance issues according to Shadowfall's short report: https://t.co/Ejhc1DbCv9?amp=1

ROE/ROIC + yuge revenue growth = profit 5-10 years from now? Both are global software and advertising businesses. ASOS 10-year median ROE (20%), ROIC (20%), and revenue growth (31%), P/E ~20 seems "OK", price seems low if if we extrapolate from past numbers: https://quickfs.net/company/ASC:LN NTM EV/EBIT multiple ~16 near a ten year low. BOO growing faster and is more expensive: https://quickfs.net/company/BOO:LN Nick Sleep. Problems: ESG, inflation and labor costs, competition, management (BOO).

Bought ASC.L and BOO.L a couple of weeks ago. So far, not good. In ten years, let's see. At least I seem to have enough conviction to hold both stonks through this drawdown.

It's a TV show written by the lead actor Scott Ryan, so it's not a remake. A bit similar, but with more (Australian) humor. @DooDiligence thanks for the tips. I will try to watch Snowfall. Zero Zero Zero was very, very good. I also liked the first season or two of Gomorrah. Trivia: I was handling some "ZeroZero" yesterday while making pizza dough: I wouldn't touch the stuff in the movie (I don't work on Wall Street).

Thank you DooDiligence. I've seen all episodes now and Mr Inbetween is one of the better TV shows I've seen. The writing and acting, both by Scott Ryan, was better than Breaking Bad IMO: Nobody dies, not EverGrande, not Lehman:

I think the plan is "help the nerd monetize the data and two-sided network" as was the case with Google and Facebook. Could also be related to "In October 2015, Reses joined Square, Inc. to head Square Capital, the company’s start-up small-business lending program.": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacqueline_Reses I might buy this shitco back at some point, but it is difficult to have buy-and-hold conviction in these types of companies.

Sold $SGE and $ALX (RIP NYC ) https://quickfs.net/company/SGE:LN

Sold a small starter position in WISH last week after the earnings release. I buy first, and ask questions later. I also panic when the market panics if I don't have any conviction. WISH has potential, but I'm not sure the new management is able to build an attractive marketplace for the long run. The software & logistics platform is quite impressive, but the app itself and the merchandise sold are of very low quality. They have managed to attract the worst merchants possible selling fakes, fads, etc. This in itself is quite an achievement and two-sided marketplaces have wide moats. This could become "Dollar General + TikTok" but right now WISH looks more like

$WISH and $PDD Yes, this might be a sign that we're at the top.

https://twitter.com/EugeneNg_VCap/status/1423842211003736068/ I have no idea if the top is coming, I guess it depends on what's happening in the world right now in this moment. Some hedge fund might blow up at any moment taking the whole market down with it. The FED stopping QE will be one thing to watch or anticipate, but I'm not sure how to play that. I thought Covid-19 would be a bad thing for the stock market, but went all-in anyway (stonks seemed cheap, blood on the streets, etc.). Without QE that would probably have been the wrong thing to do... Right now I'm more worried about how to stay invested in great companies over 10-30 years, including many market crashes. I'm also wondering where the bottom will be in Chinese tech. I will probably miss the market top because of this and not seeing what's in front of me. You have to have a model of the world, but you also have to constantly update it. People who have never read Keynes or Graham might not have a model, but might be able to see the big long-term trends anyway (social media & internet). However, people with good models based on what Keynes or Benjamin Graham wrote or said a long time ago, might never see what's in front their eyes (e.g. software eating the world). All models stop working at some point, or only reflect the time during which those models where created. Looking at Li Lu's public portfolio (almost exclusively tech) I'm sure he has updated his model to reflect reality. Anyway, thanks @muscleman for helping me update my model. I will try to increase the weighting of FED's QE in my model. I will also update the weighting of cryptocurrencies. I already missed the cryptocurrency thing because I didn't include it in my model, because "who likes ponzi schemes?". This crypto thing will be a long-term trend, so it's probably not too late to go "full retard" on crypto later. One thing I think people still don't see, is how big the network effects of social media are and how fast you can go from zero to 100. This is one of the reasons I was thinking of buying $PDD against my instincts.

Here's an interesting comparison between KraneShares top holdings and comparable U.S. businesses: Tencent owns shares in at least three of those companies... Link to video:

Thanks. Will try to watch the first episode today.

0700.HK and 9988.HK A bit of $FISV. Thank you @KCLarkin