Parsad

They are from Alibaba, but your and Paul's pedo comments don't help, because the algorithm rifles through words in posts and then serves ads. Keep it clean, and we won't see so many such ads. It would probably help if some of you stopped clicking on them as well. Cheers!

Please do not start this thread again in the Investment Ideas section. That section is for ticker specific ideas so we have a database of discussions about a specific stock, not broad-based country ideas like Turkey. Cheers!

Unfortunately, the ads are served by Google Adsense. Probably because of Paul and Greg's pedo comments! Because they never used to show up before that. I've deleted those posts when I've seen them, but the algorithm is serving them. I've asked them to keep those type of comments off the site. So the only way to get rid of the ads is to provide feedback to Google Adsense that they are inappropriate or ban Paul and Greg. Sanjeev

Too be expected. Most insurers will take a hit this quarter and next with the dramatic drop in bond prices. Fairfax may take the least hit of all reinsurers with so much of their portfolio sitting in shorter bonds and cash. Some of this will continue to be offset by firm insurance pricing. With rising interest rates, the risk free return versus current return on equities has to also be considered. We've seen some volatility, and a correction in the most overvalued sectors, but the overall market will continue to correct as rates continue to rise. This also bodes well for Fairfax over 2022 and into 2023...they will be able to put significant amounts of cash to work in bonds and other securities...increasing interest income, dividend income and possible capital gains. It's when shit hits the fan that Fairfax builds their reputation and book. Cheers!

There are very few celebrity chefs who can actually successfully run a food empire. I don't think McEwan is one of them. Different types of restaurants also bring different problems. Fast food franchise restaurants are run very differently than fine-dining sit-down restaurants. Mid-priced sit-down chains that are national are run very differently than fast-food or fine-dining. Catering businesses have their own set of problems. Food trucks have their issues. Some regions also cannot support fine-dining restaurants in large scale...for example Vancouver. Vancouver has a ton of rich people, but not a lot of them want to spend money on the high-end side believe it or not. Sure we have our share of people who enjoy luxury items, but high-end fine dining finds it hard to make good profits in Vancouver other than a few well-known local restaurants. Torontonians like to spend money on famous chefs and their restaurants...New Yorkers do too...and Los Angeles, Chicago, Vegas...but Vancouver really doesn't. It's why the Keg or Cactus Club do extremely well in Vancouver, but restaurants by Jean-George Vongerichten or Stefan Hartmann failed. Ask Rob Feenie who ran one of the best restaurants in Canada for over a decade...Lumiere...who sold out and decided to run the menu for Cactus Club! Part of it is the people, part is the inability to find really great staff for high-end dining, and then a lot is simply the economics of the business...food costs, staffing costs, rents, etc. New Yorkers are ok paying $100 for a steak...Vancouverites, not so much! Cheers!

100% agree with this! I think Recipe is a mess! Might be cheap on a cash flow basis, but the assets are all over the place and only a handful will grow successfully organically...The Keg, New York Fries, St. Hubert, Original Joes. They would have been better off buying a handful of great cash-flowing U.S. restaurant brands during the pandemic (Denny's, Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory to name a couple) if they were going to focus on sit-down restaurants and various ad-hoc brands with 3-5 locations. A lot of these smaller brands are not franchisable. Not a right fit for me or Fairfax! Cheers!

Would you consider any permanent impairment in some of Recipe's assets...similar to most sit-down restaurant chains around the world after the pandemic? Personally, I'm more comfortable building positions in Fairfax India and Atlas at the right prices. Not that restaurants will disappear, but we've clearly seen during waves of the pandemic that the most successful restaurants have been those that can handle both in-house sales and drive-thru sales. Home delivery helps, but revenues still fall off dramatically unless you have a drive-thru. And it's quite hard to add an efficient drive-thru to say an Olive Garden or Cheesecake Factory! Cheers!

Five Guys little bacon burger, little fries and regular Coke! Other than that...nothing! Cheers!

The week before the AGM, and no one is posting? No Viking spreadsheets? No Daphne asking about estimates? No insights by Stubble? Or are you guys all on the way to Toronto or something? Cheers!

The fastest way for a billionaire to become a millionaire: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/guy-buys-nft-2-9-005000804.html Cheers!

No business in the world wants unsatisfied customers. Sure, some small business owners may not give two shits like the COBF , but larger corporate operations want happy customers...their managers want happy customers. Does complaining ever change anything at the top...rarely...perhaps in 1 in every 1000 cases. But that doesn't mean you should not complain if you are dissatisfied with service or a product. I get compensated almost every time I complain. Cell phone bill? Knock off $10 bucks next month. Cable bill? Ok give me some free movies. Hotel service? Free drinks at the bar. Airline delays or cancellations? Passenger bill of rights. Restaurant error? Comp the meal or a free one next time. Grocery bill incorrect? Free item or $10 off...it's the law in Canada. That being said, I don't complain that much...maybe once a month...ok 2-3 times a month! Cheers!

The one other guy that I would say in the Fairfax sphere that has some understanding of bonds similar to Brian is actually Francis Chou believe it or not. Cheers!

Brian in my opinion is one of the best bond managers in history in terms of performance and being able to see big events in the bond landscape. I'm sure he's doing his best to teach the younger managers, but it is actually impossible to replace him. Cheers!

Hahaha! Except for the new Corvette! Cheers!

I'm not sure he's getting riled up. He paid for his tickets, the airline could not fulfill their obligation and he's seeking a proper response or compensation for this failure. No different than if your mechanic messed up your engine or your grocery delivery guy broke your dozen eggs. I complain all the time, so that I get some sort of answer or am compensated in some way. You overbook my flight and bump me...compensate me. You forget my McDouble with my order...compensate me. You're late with a delivery...explanation or compensate me. I don't get riled up...but I make sure I'm not on the losing end of any screwed up transaction. Cheers!

Nice! So you get a 2020 Lexus NX for $9K net, and upgraded your car from 8 years old to 2 years old and now only 24K miles. Good for another 10 years! Cheers!

Did you ask for any compensation from the airline? Food vouchers, monetary, free future upgrades, hotel if your flight is the next day? Also, do you qualify for anything under the charter of rights for airline passengers? US: https://www.transportation.gov/airconsumer/fly-rights Canada: https://airpassengerrights.ca/en/ Cheers!

Wintaai's Annual Letter - Francis continues to kill it at Wintaai and Stonetrust! Cheers! Wintaai Holdings Ltd. Annual Letter (2021).pdf

I think they probably hit #1 since renewal business was probably higher than last year. I don't think they probably did too much in #2, but I wouldn't be surprised if they found some stuff in Europe or Asia with better yield. Maybe put a little into U.S. debt as rates went higher. Cheers!

I think you guys have a different perspective on concentration than I do! At one point 18 months ago, I think Fairfax accounted for 75% of my portfolio! As the stock slowly made its way closer to intrinsic value, I've dropped it to about 40% in most of my personal portfolios. ATCO, FB and BAC make up about another 20%...the rest is cash. I'll slowly whittle Fairfax down to less than 10% as it continues its rise to 1.1-1.2 times book. Never fall in love with a stock...not BRK, not FFH, none of them! But bet heavy when things are very much in your favour! Cheers!

Will put any details we have under Norm's Fairfax Lollapalooza thread in the Events section. I am not coming to Toronto this year, so there is no annual dinner again. I will be back next year and we will restart the annual tradition...barring any new wave of the pandemic! Cheers!

Surprisingly, there is Republican support for Federal legalization of cannabis. The reason being is that many farmers who produce tobacco and other crops, want to move into cannabis. There will be partisan issues within the bill that might hold it up, but once they reach a compromise, I suspect they will eventually pass this thing. Cheers!

What's a Nespresso clone machine? You mean a non-Nespresso brand that uses Nespresso capsules? If so, yeah it's all good! Who cares if it isn't the Nespresso brand. As long as you still get good coffee out of it! I have an older Nespresso, and I use it only for espresso. Otherwise, I do pour overs using non-bleached filters and an old small strainer. You don't need fancy, schmancy stuff to make good coffee. But you do need good coffee to make good coffee! Cheers!

I think investors just have to realize that Fairfax is not Berkshire or Markel, and never will be. Fairfax's greatest investment successes usually comes during bear markets. Because bear markets are few and far between, there are huge periods where their out of favour style struggles. It is what it is. They aren't going to pay up, and they aren't like Munger who looks for growth at a good price. The legacy Fairfax team likes distressed equities...period! They want to buy cheap stuff...cigar butts is what they know better than anyone else. That doesn't appeal to the modern Berkshire investors or Markel investors, but that's why you get these dramatic periods where Fairfax swings from 1.1 times book to 0.7 times book and back to 1.1 times book. It's hard for the average investor to stomach, and they don't like timing the purchases. But you look at every thing Fairfax's investment team touches and it is all about timing their purchases...bonds, equities, insurance businesses, non-insurance businesses. They buy soooo out of favor stuff that no one wants to touch it, and then somehow it becomes gold a few years later...forget alchemy and turning lead into gold...Prem Watsa turns shit into gold! In the mean time, they will stagnate, suffer the slings and arrows of trolls, and then suddenly with the next insurance hard market/bear market become well respected again for a few years as they outperform everyone else. Then it's the same cycle all over again, where patience truly is a virtue and many Fairfax shareholders once again wish they had bought Berkshire! Maybe that's why I love stocks like Fairfax...I love the changing seasons in Canada, and Fairfax always has its spring, summer, fall and winter. Even Hawaii (Berkshire) gets boring after a while! Cheers!

Markel's book of business is different than Fairfax's and Berkshire's for the most part. While Markel writes considerable long-tail insurance, the overall duration is shorter than Fairfax and they write more specialty business. So the duration of their bond investments have to match up with their future liabilities which are shorter than Fairfax...but that's also why Markel is less volatile than Fairfax. Berkshire would be more volatile than Markel if it wasn't for their massive cash flows from non-insurance operations that stabilize the volatility in insurance losses. Cheers!