sleepydragon

“Shale is peaked“ is actually bullish for the biggest US oil companies that has the best fields (cvx, xom, oxy)

I think it can’t be done now unless he’s willing to pay in shares and he want this matter to get settled now.

I noticed the letter in the annual report has more contents (and more interesting) than the “annual letter”. Was it like this for prior years or it’s a new thing? Wondering why is that..

https://defensescoop.com/2025/02/20/dod-review-consulting-contracts-cuts-trump-priorities-doge/

China lab #3 ? (Covid, deepseek, new covid)

isnt F35 (or maybe the next generation) you can have just plane that’s piloted , which control 5 other planes that are unpiloted. I think I read about this somewhere.

dealraker, thanks for your insights. when i was in college (decades ago), as a computer science major, i vaguely remembered BAH came to campus to recruit. The consensus among the students are consulting companies built software for other companies , and thus has no great future. You want to work for companies that build products for themselves. That’s what keeping me from buying CACI and i bought LMT instead. However, CACI’s price is down so much recently it does look very appealing and i found myself keep looking at it.

How about CACI?

trimmed BGC, back to tracking/coffee can position

I suspect it's not free lunch -- perhaps when you roll the futures you are periodically paying up for the spread. It's the rolling that will cost you. it's also unlimited risk. Also doing the carry trade you are betting depreciating Yen, and rising USD. It's a market where nobody has edge. I know people do this by getting long term mortgage using their paid-off house in the other country, and then use the proceeds to buy house in USA. That's less risky because the loan is long term. But probably too risky using a IBKR margin JPY loan to buy USA stocks, so I didn't do it (I was thinking about doing this)

This is too funny not to share:

I bought LMT— thought this has to be the safest defense stock. Geez, down 20% as soon as i bought it

After this Xi will be emboldened to invade taiwan. Trump is not going to do much about it.

Wife won again. Her pick PLTR up like 45% and RDDT up 15% , and it’s not even month yet. Is it possible i have been married to Wife Buffett for 20 years and I missed all these opportunities ?! My pick, NBIS, went down 40% the next business day after I bought it (though it has recovered and now 8% higher than my cost).

how do we get Anduril shares? Is it trading somewhere?

Here is my reasons why they will do it: 1. They need this to be done within 4 years because they need this money to fund various initiatives (tax cuts, balance budgets, and sovereign fund etc..). It's now an essential ring of a much bigger scheme of the plan. The administration is highly motivated to push this forward. 2. If treasury doesn't cancel the senior preferred, Fannie/Freddie will never be able to built or raise enough capital within 4 years to privatize. It will take another decade for Fannie to build enough capital. Since treasury care more what cash inflow is flowing in, instead of how it's being done, treasury will cancel the senior preferred. To speed things up, they use an IPO to raise more capital. 3. Bessent knows this is do-able, but he's only concerns is this is a complicated task and whether this is going to result in higher mortgage rate. That's why he want to push the tax cuts through first, so it will be easier to do this.

add some bitcoin, ethenum, and doge coins for diversification

NBIS is another one. The engineering talents are the 'ex Russia google'. They sold their Russia business, and now doing AI Cloud. To run AI Cloud well is not a simple "IT" tasks. There are layers of APIs you can add on top of it to make things run in parallel and efficient and fast. it was down 40% when NVDA down 17%. now it's back quite a bit.

https://about.usps.com/newsroom/service-alerts/international/suspension-of-inbound-parcels-from-china-and-hong-kong.htm

Where the money come from? Perhaps from selling the stakes of fannie mae? also, they can mark up all the gold bars Fed owns and put them in it?

Can someone explain why bitcoin and ether tanking? What does these have to with tariff?

Not worthless. My knowledge is limited. I think refiners in US are mostly setup to process the mix of two, and switching to light only is like re-tuning a factory — slow and expensive works

Canadian oil are heavy crude which US doesnt produce. Shale produce light crude, which has to be mixed with heavy crude by refiners. maybe bad for oxy too.

Ackman thinks if treasury dont wipe out commons, the pie is bigger and treasury can make more money owning 80% of a bigger pie than 100% of a smaller pie. He thinks if commons is wiped out, treasury will have a harder time to moneylize any of its 100% because there’s no natural shareholder base (wiped out) and they have to find new shareholders (who will be reluctant)

thanks Gfp. Yes, and Buffett is using long term un-callable debt, verus ibkr I could get margin call anytime..