sleepydragon

I suspect when he says “geo political” risk he is worrying TSM is forced to build factories in US which are much more costly and the huge capx on sensitive equipments and also the infrastructure support like electricity needed. It’s not just the war will actual happen, it’s whole new Cold War thing both governments are doing that will add costs to TSM’s business

My own prediction: they will bring Mr. Buffett to the best restaurant in Japan and they will serve sashimi made of $1 million dollar fish, and Mr. Buffett will want a cheese burger.

historically, Russian has taken a lot of pieces from China. Russia is weak now though. also, Beijing’s location is unique. It’s very close to Russian border and there’s also a port in Tianjin. It’s not easy to defend if there’s a war between Russia and China.

Kiev has international support. if China invade Taiwan, and suppose it’s not going well, how confident Xi will be that Russia won’t take more Chinese lands? I think there were underground bunkers in Beijing built in Mao’s years in case Russian drop a nuke in Beijing.

That’s just China being China, want to make money but Chinese govt know in the history the only country that has taken lands from China is Russia, Japan, and Mongolia. (mongolia is not too face losing since they are being called Chinese later lol)

In Chinese history, it’s always preached “near are enemies, remote are friends”. For countries near China’ s boarder, they are always seen has long term threat. Sometime this threat is managed through gifts. My point is, China and Russia will have war again. Beijing is so close to the Russian border, it can be taken within weeks by Russian tanks. The biggest threats of CCP’s ruling is not America which is far away, but an aggressive Russia.

bought RIVN

I agree. In terms of addictiveness of the products, and capital light, social media companies wins (though not cheap)

There's a FT article that talks about Horse Betting. Nowadays, there are so many data available on each horses, one can build models and derive trading strategies. Has anybody make money consistent from horse betting?

Mega banks will never have to sell long term securities to overset any deposit runs, so those unrealized loss is just 0 loss for mega banks. They will never have deposits runs and in fact their problems are having too much deposits.

Data companies: SPGI, FDS, MCO, VRSK, LSEG

I put my wife's IRA in BRK 100%, because I can stand her tears when I lost money for her many years ago (I bought magicjack, the stock Tilson recommended) . lol

black box shouldn't mean it shall be avoided. In fact, that means they are "un-investable" for many and thus should have more alphas to exploit. For example, in early days of google, it looks like a blackbox too. nobody understand how google is making money.. Besides, for banks, they are not completely black box. They are just harder to understand for most people. But I think Buffett got it this time, and he sold all those bank stocks.

is SNACF a typo?

Check out Tencent. There’s a great book by Lulu Chen . Tencent is so much smarter than FB the way they built their wechat app. Wechat is so addictive, and it’s FB+TikTok+paypal/visa all in one

Brkb baba tcehy vts ntdoy

GS is cheap, I am tempted to buy some, but I couldn’t find sustainable moat of this company. Supposedly they are the smartest among Wall Street banks, always hire smart people, and it used to be that they take risk make a lot very profitable prop trades, that’s what make them unique. but almost every single person I know working there have left.

One problem could be they have too much deposit they don’t have enough places to make loans. The deposit is a cost

Of course to make a lot of money one needs to concentrate. But to make even more money one needs to concentrate and hold for a long time. But a normal person who does that will be sleeping all the time and hardly improves and learn anything. so I think the best way is to keep making small bets, and when lightning strike, go big and concentrated in a name. Say, keep 80% of your money in a couple of names, and 20% each 2% in a dozen names

imo, banks will pull back from lending and PE firms will under pressure. Berkshire will have permanent cash get to do a lot of deals . Obvious even to me

I have a feeling WEB is going to say no to all of them. He sold all his bank stocks a few quarters ago

If I remember correctly, someday after 3/8 I was looking at A shares’s volume, and noticed its ADV was higher than its historical ADV.

I am surprised schw is up yesterday. schw is really hard to say if its price is overvalued or bargaining now..

Check out RBB, it’s also a Chinese American focused community bank.