frommi

But the reason that ESS performed so well was because of the tech boom and the growth of high income IT workers or not? That boom is over. And btw. 4000% over 28 years is around a ~14% CAGR, Realty Incomes total return from there is 15%.

Oh and for SRC the math is 6.5% dividend+4% growth+5-10% rerating. EPRT can simply grow by using more leverage. As long as they can issue debt at 4-5% rates and buy properties at >7% caprates everythings fine. And i doubt that this gap closes to zero for long periods of time. Probably we will see higher caprates soon, or lower interest rates.

Thats pretty easy, 4.5% from the dividend, 2% growth through lease escalations, 2-5% from reinvested FFO at 7% caprates with 50/50 debt/equity mix. That is the formula since more than 25 years for something like Realty income.

EPRT has been a pretty good investment since its IPO, outperformed all other NNN REIT's and NNN Reits return on average between 10-15% over the long term. Its a pretty simple business. SRC had problems with leverage, but they are now pretty much the same as Realty Income, which was a very good long term hold. But SRC is 50% cheaper. Chris Volk of STORE Capital (where BRK invested some years ago) has created SRC and his colleague has created EPRT, and they are even better and more conservative (less leverage= more future growth) than the folks at STOR.

Sold a part of SPRB after shooting up by 150% overnight. Was part of my NCAV basket and traded at 1/3 NCAV, there was a news today that it got 15 million in cash upfront for development of some drug? With that money NCAV should be north of 4$ which is the reason i kept the rest.

I hold positions in EPRT,SRC and AMT. I think NNN and the Tower-REIT's (CCI,AMT) are the best REIT's to own, because they have the most staying power, easily survived the GFC and Covid situations without dividend cuts or problems with tenants. Especially the tower REIT's are very interesting because they can get high ROI's when a tower is leased to several different wireless providers. I think that they capture most of the value of wireless connections, while AT&T, Verizon etc. are the true bagholders. And because the big telcos always struggle for money they outsource more and more of their towers. The only risk is when some of the big telcos merge, like last year it happened with Sprint, thats the reason FFO of the tower REIT's didnt grow last year.

Sold the last bit of the energy trade, already sold out of XOM and today of IMO. With oil in freefall i am pretty sure that the forecasts for most oil companies will be too rosy. Maybe i am too early but i think there will be plenty of time to load up cheap on these names again in 1-2 years for the next inflation leg. But need to see a real recession first. Bought these companies in march/april when oil hit new highs and the oil stocks were lagging. Now oil is 50$ cheaper and the stocks are near all time highs.

Looks like a gamble at this point to me with all the debt involved and Lambert as the most knowledgable insider already selling down his holding.

Your definition is right . Look at GIGM or ACTG for real net-nets.

I own them all (tobacco is 35% of my portfolio), MO and BTI have lost 4% volume per year since more than 30 years and still grown earnings by 7-9% every year. The flywheel of price increases+lower costs are still at work. But i monitor the situation closely. BTI had problems with USD/GBP exchange rate last year. Funnily what everyone perceived as the worst tobacco stock (IMBBY) has outperformed the others last year. MO had problems with downtrading, maybe even the reason IMB performed so well. But what do i know, i only think that tobacco/nicotine delivery is one of the best businesses in the world. Makes addictive, costs only pennies to make and very high barriers to entry. (and the barriers to enter via vaping are increasing now every year when you look at the FDA actions). I also see PM as the long long long term winner, but the market has priced that already into the stock. (its double as expensive as the other options).

BTI, recession resistant, cheap, has momentum going and pays you while waiting. Debt load from reynolds aquisition finally under control and still growing 5-8% per year.

+10% in USD, many thanks for all the info in here about FFH, that was my safe harbor this year.

WSTL, it has lots of hairs, trades at 50% of NCAV and i am pretty sure that nobody here will like or buy it after doing tons of research :)

At least according to ycharts 2010 eps was around 13$ which would be a cagr of ~14%.

You should double check your numbers :)

LON:IMB, too cheap to pass now. My only concern is that i am nearly 40% in tobacco stocks now.

Sold some LON:IMB to buy more MO.

more PM

My goal in investing is to compound at >20% (pretax) with max drawdowns of 10%. Over the past 5 years i did 15% with max 10%, so i still have some way to go. My goal has nothing to do with the money, its just that i believe that it is possible and that i want to show to myself that i can do it. Its like playing a game i enjoy most of the time and i will probably always do it, regardless if retired or not. Since i know i can do at least 10% per year ony my investments money is not the limiting factor in my lifestyle anymore, but i think that 3 homes are something that i will never own, regardless of how much money i have. Why not just use AirBnB and stop working right away if you don`t enjoy it?

Sold all my TSLA bear call spreads, because risk reward on them is now very bad. Profits paid for all of my puts that i continue to hold until zero.

That seems quite "ballsy." How large of position did you take if I might ask? 0.5% :o But i am also short TSLA call spreads and long a 200$ put since some months, so my whole TSLA short exposure is larger. I think my max loss from the current point is somewhere around ~10%, my max gain ~25%.

JUN 2020 TSLA PUTS 10$ for 0.25$ and 50$ for 2.37$. I think the bankruptcy risk for Tesla is massivly underpriced in these options. But maybe i am just to stupid to understand this.

I use a simple short system over the summer months to protect against drawdowns. On 30. April i go long a december DAX put 20% out of the money and short a put 25% out of the money with 4-5% of my portfolio. When the DAX goes down by 20% this put spread goes up >7x in value where my profit stop sits. Over the past 50 years there was a 20% correction ~20-25% of the time so every fourth to fifth year. 5% going up 7x is around 35%, so it is enough to cover a 35% drawdown in any one year. This comes down to an expected value of 5% per year over time and is one of the best and easiest short systems i know. The DAX is full of cyclical and debt laden stocks and according to https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=76248 one of the best indices to do "Sell in may". I do this since 2014 and had one successfull hit in 2015, but i used normal put options back than and have improved the system a lot by using put spreads. (Normal put options only go up 5x in value in a 20% drawdown, except when you can sell into a huge vola spike, but thats hard to time and backtest.)

Your math is wrong. 6% growth leads to +80% after 10 years. -50% of that and you are at a negative return (1.8*0.5=0.9) and that is after inflation. You can think about valuation a little different, historically the S&P500 dividend has grown by about 2-3% real per year (after inflation). It currently yields 1.8%, so without valuation change your real return is 4-5%. Compounded over 10 years this leads to your stash being 55% in real terms. Crash by 50% and you are negative again. Cash currently yields more than inflation, so you are better of just holding cash and wait. When you are lucky and the next recession and bear market is just 24 months away (which the yield curve inversion points to) you will be a lot better off. Personally i just hedge, because 5% alpha > 2% cash yields and i am really happy that i do it this way. Buts thats just my approach to the current situation.

Maybe "people" like Hussman did, but in 2011 the market valuation was not that extreme. Now it is, look for yourself: https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php.