dealraker

I'm getting my information from the attorney who I work with as to my trust/estate, part of which was originally designated for hospice - but that's been changed. Both she and I may be misinterpreting the actual happenings or facts. I'll add that I do know the gifts to hospice were not all at once, that they were yearly for several years.

Locally we had a guy whose estate went to our local hospice care facility subject to a provision that if it (hospice) went into private hands the money would be refunded with interest, with proceeds devoted elsewhere. The provision of the will made it subject to gov approval and such. Our local government is 100% one party and has been 100% one party for 40 years, all 7 commissioners for 40 years without interruption. They rejected the grant and are in the process of having hospice go into private hands. Of course this is not free of politics and gains for those involved and lawsuits are flying. Boys will be boys, they take care of their own of course. We are also, by county commissioner choice, using our 65 mil COVID funds for a sportsplex build. That too has private interests who will benefit, those directly related to the commissioners. What is new these days is the open nature of insider gains, those in power no longer fear any backlash. One party controls, one small group controls the party. This group gains, and all the voters stand and clap in unison. The little man loves watching the big man get richer...as long as the big man is "like" him.

Crusades? Trump anointed? https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/military-leaders-iran-war-trump-172548999.html

Times have changed. While doing yoga this morning I had CNBC on. Joe Kernen and Republican rep Shelley Capito were deeply affected both by their own concerns and the concerns Trump has for the Iranian people, that Americans giving up their lives for those in Iran was really heart warming.

Two months ago I sold all but a tiny-tiny-tiny bit of APO coffeecaninvetor, but I own BAM, BN, and Blackstone. Brookfield is a way back to 1986 connection while BX was bought during COVID. These are insignificant holdings but things I've enjoyed following. "Enjoyed" does not mean "believed" as to finances particularly that of Brookfield. The asset manager side of these things is my limited belief or interest for the most part, the actual assets that they fee that owned by others - or hold (and fee evidently) are often entities that I would not put 5 cents towards believing the valuations they claim. What you can be sure of is that these entities will skyrocket up-to-the-right far more than any rational person would expect (and endless wet behind the ears analysts will praise them then) and shortly later they will plummet further down ---- repeatedly! Have you seen Parsad discuss these? LOL, in any meaningful way that's about all you need to know about these things in my view. My belief is that one day they'll be questioned both on the manager and asset side, that the institutions that flock to them for other type asset management will rebell towards the high fees. But in the meantime the upwards-to-the-right over time controls the narrative doesn't it!

Personally I don't think anyone who owns these stocks, and I am an owner, has any ability to ascertain the blackbox.

Things will get interesting for Trump if and when the stock market quits going up. His success, the economy, all things are fueled by the ascent of Mr. Market these days. What percentage of Americans live each day based on their investment account totals? I don't know that. What we do know is that this is a big part of how we feel and what we, those with the $, spend. I loved Jon Stewart's tidbit on Trump where he shows Trump saying, "People say I'll get bored, that I'll leave Iran when this happens - but it won't happen, we'll stay until..." And immediately Trump goes off on a ballroom and "I love gold things" tangent. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-brags-gold-curtains-americans-die-iran-war-1235523798/

Given the "stunning success" which means within ? weeks Trump can claim total victory - problem eliminated... Somebody start a poll on how long before this comes. I say 3 weeks. Then we'll move on to the next crisis that will dominate media and leave Iran - and Venezuala - and tariffs - and Epstein - an ICE void of upkeep. In other words a second poll can be titled: "What one issue, of Trump's discretion, will big orange have us scrambling to conceptualize next (while of course discussing nothing else)?"

Dang Greg I was looking, that is fishing, for cubs who usually responds lightly to an intended-to-be-silly post. And what did I get? The most biased man in politics history!

Cubs...you in on this?

We ain't talkin' 'bout stuff Trump don't want us to talk 'bout...he controls the narrative, he wins. He's playing golf, there's a time period now where the media rants but he gets and extended break. Fox is doing their one story all else is tabloid thing while CNN is dancing through its typical awfulizations. Next up? I'm about ready to enter the predictions marketplace for Trump actions, I'm pretty good at it.

That's what I have felt about the railroads for years now, not as much Burlington but the others. There is nothing "wrong" with being in an industry that has a period of any length where it is near difficult if not impossible to raise sales and overall company profits. But when you start distorting all kinds of financial metrics and distorting reality trying to get your stock up...and options optional...that's when it gets pretty stupid. It sells well, at times it sells off-the-charts well to naive one-variable obsessed investors. But the business ain't doing crap but waffling around in the foul smelling dung management has likely created. My guess is that time will help the railroads, that there is some hope down the road. But today...might be called fantasy built into the stock prices of UNP and CSX to say the least.

This is probably the best financial read you'll ever come across as to how right-in-your-face it all happens. It does prepare you, it literally instructs you, as to understanding what Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are/were about...and of course what Donald John Trump is all about. That is precisely what we are living today, all of us, like it or not. It just never comes up as to what Trump is all about. Life is great...if you can stand it! https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/nyregion/donald-trump-atlantic-city.html

So now while we discuss Iran for the next 50, Cuba, etc. the thing perfectly obvious is that we have a man who said it would be deals and not global interventions or whatnot. What we have is a POTUS who will take this county, and it cubs, wherever he wants - or better said needs - to go...and for various reasons and timing he will do so. We discuss only what he wants us to discuss; we avoid what he wants us to avoid. Some of you make fun of ole deal's obsession with Trump - while you have the exact same obsession. But I've watched this man for decades. What you think you and he have in common is only for the moment. Trump is going to be out and about raising hell and moving on. Like it or not, you are on this journey with him. He's in complete control and you'll end up with what's left after he's moved on. In the meantime cyclical stocks...please remember "folks" we are giving Trump the green light because Mr. Market is giddy...are slamming to the upside. Old school value is the happy place. Yea, we are all distracted and you can be sure Trump is headed to an entirely new spot. You will focus on that, and only that!

Want some clarity on Trump? Ya got it right here:

The obsession with OR in the railroad business is quite the...well...obsession. Freight volumes over the last ten years aren't much popular to discuss. As is the norm, the expectation or sales pitch is for volumes to increase. Meanwhile we have a merger and yet another few years of garbled financial presentations to come from paying up dearly and models of the past that struggled. Owner of NSC since 1976; UNP and CSX for about 40 years; Burlington and Kansas City before bought; and CP and CNI for getting close to 20 years. The hump yard I can see part of and hear from my lake home was "cut" only to re-open when service sucked. Cutting your way to stardom is something the railroad industry should drop in the dust.

LOL we met a few months after the operation where they cut out a section of my intestines then pulled them around and sewed them back together . I'd gone from 180 to 150. Had to buy new clothes...which was actually a lot of fun. Diverticulitis for years was the cause.

As I've written here many times, my wife Angela pushes me to interact on COBF saying it is great for sustaining the mind. My physical health or at least ability to be active goes from dread to delight but my spirit is very good. Seeking others for upscale investment discussion is a difficult task but I found it here. Cubs drives me batshit crazy but deep down I love my Cubs!

My brother and I were barely old enough to witness and remember my mother's poor mental health (she committed suicide) and my dad's awful physical health. So we went down the road of staying fit and eating healthy. By 22 we'd both already dealt with cancers such that neither of us would have been surprised if death would have come. Today we are both in to about 8 years of non-Hodgkin Lymphoma which as been effectively treated but we are on the long end of expected life having it. Along the way I've probably set some type of record for surgeries from the chest level down through the digestive tracts, 11 or so. It is amazing how confining it is mentally to always be in a struggle to live. At one time Spekulatius (Ralf) wanted to meet for lunch, which we eventually did, but I had a hard time getting myself up and about in a presentable mind set such that he wouldn't think I was some sort of almost corpse. It took months, and this was just the norm, not the exception. Since then I've gotten much healthier...finally after about ten years of meaningful struggle from the dread and recovery of one operation after another. In any event I don't think I have eaten an unhealthy meal in 50 years. So...it is what it is!

My view is a slew of short term Treasury bills will be quite the treasure at some point not too far off. In the meantime Mr. Market is likely to panic higher - it is in an animals blood to chase what is running!

The 99% was of course facetious, but consider it comes from a guy who by 18 had long lost parents and had the Lance Armstrong cancer. And to be factual, things didn't improve from there. As I say, life is great if you can stand it.

Within a reasonable parameter of lifestyle/wight etc. it is 99% genetics and medical technology anyway. At 71 most would say my "fitness" is crazy level incredible. I would reply "Yes, but my health has sucked now for a couple of decades."

FYI Baldwin comments: https://www.businessinsurance.com/baldwin-says-goldilocks-era-for-brokers-is-over/

The Dollar...General and Tree!

At the 1998 annual meeting (in the spring of 99) I stood and asked a question about the General Re acquisition (I owned General Re too....of course LOL) and Buffett deferred to Munger. Munger's reply was, and I can't remember now exactly, something to the order of: "If we invest the float even just for average returns it will turn out well."