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Everything posted by John Hjorth
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Added a bit to SCHO.CPH & BAM during the week.
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Here I'm picking a part of your post, Swedish_Compounder, It's not about returns, but about risk adjusted returns. Ex post - all risk - also here on CoBF, after a nice gain perhaps, has a propensity to evaporate.
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Buffett buybacks: Could Berkshire tender stock?
John Hjorth replied to alwaysinvert's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Personally, I'm not sure of what we can deduct from this fact, SwedishValue, Berkshire has run up quite a bit recently, that's evident though. Somehow it all boils down to who's buying, and why - and personally I don't know the answer to that question. -
marazul, That may be true going forward - time will tell. What is important here, is that the cash flow from operations from the wholly owned Berkshire subsidiaries now has a size, so that Berkshire now must be considered able to hold on to the listed investments portfolio, even in a downturn, and if the float starts to dwindle at the same time. Cash, cash equivalents & T-bills also serves as a buffer & cushion here.
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It seems safe to say in retrospect that June 26th at 186.44 closing price was an attractive buying opportunity for Berkshire. BRK up 18% since, SPX up 6.75% We buy when Berkshire gets cheap - because we know how to value it - regardless of the index performance or correlation. Just soo true. It's extremely cumbersome & boring, occupies a lot time to read everything on the Berkshire forum here on CoBF and to discusss [World's best place to discuss Berkshire, I may add!]. - And still we all have personal opinions about a lot of things absolutely not being somewhere near optimal at Berkshire... I, for one, still can't find a modest praying carpet on the Berkshire Wear website ... [<- J/K]
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CoBF Book Forum topic: A Blueprint for Better Banking: Svenska Handelsbanken - Niels Kroner. I suppose Pete already owns both the bank and the book.
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12x and 1.5x is on sale?! Yes, Pete. I actually agree with Roger here, for that particular bank. I have what I want of this bank for now. 17 percent in red ex. dividends right now. I don't care. SEK weak compared DKK, and it will eventually bounce back because of no peg to EUR [contrary to DKK]. Bank chairman Fredrik Lundberg has been buying shares in the bank like a crazy the last two springs for his personal account, when he has got his personal dividends from L.E. Lundbergföretagen AB [he is the majority owner & CEO in LUND.STO via A-shares].
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Danske Bank A/S Company Announcement [september 19th 2018]: Danske Bank A/S donates DKK 1.5 billion and revises outlook downwards. Danske Bank A/S Company Announcement [september 19th 2018]: Danske Bank's CEO resigns. Danske Bank A/S Press Release [september 19th 2018]: Findings of the investigations relating to Danske Bank's branch in Estonia. - - - o 0 o - - - Full Bruhn & Hjejle Report here [<- Juicy reading stuff for the weekend to come!] Edit: I just read the key takeaways in the Executive Summary [section 1.4] ... Holy Molly! [0_0] - - - o 0 o - - - Edit 2: Bloomberg [september 19th 2018]: Danske Chairman Says "Large" Part of USD 234 Billion Is Suspicious. I really love the way the female reporter pronounces "Donske Bank", by the way! [ : - ) ]
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Canadian Foreign Assets above 100K declaration
John Hjorth replied to beerbaron's topic in General Discussion
Great to read about such valuable help among a couple of canucks here on CoBF, and congratulations on the family extension to BeerBaron! -
Thanks, globalfinancepartners, So those rumors about Mr. Jains unspecified health issues in that particular Bloomberg article from December 2017 are still just that - rumors.
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Third & last sell order for PNDORA.CPH [the rest of the position, at 410] just filled.
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Voodooking, Source?
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I don't know why. But I know that it would serve you well to read this.
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I read that you get it, NewbieD, [ : - ) ] I have nothing to add with regard to the rest of Europe, based on ignorance, unfortunately. [i have enough to think about with my own small Danish bank positions.] It's not just bad business ... it's plain and simple folly, with participation of banks and mortgage institutions here. It's just soo lame. The total debt of agriculture and farming here in Denmark is north of DKK 350 B. However, it seems like somebody has - at least - come to some kind of understanding of this, now talking about: "What do we do to avoid the gene pool of our future production basis not to end up in the slaugter house now?" The Danish industry hasen't - so far - asked for public hand outs, only [interest free] deferred payments. They know, that they are politically really in the dog house already, because of pollution from production. - - - o 0 o - - - Think of it, as if I was applying for a DKK 100 M margin line to buy Berkshire at Danske Bank. [i would do better with that than with any farm!]. I would sure hit the headlines in the local papers at any not further specified future point in time at the blowup!
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My perception of what has been communicated is like globalfinancepartners. Because Mr. Jain is not totally physically well, the fill of the CEO position is a given as much as it can be.
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Thank you, NewbieD, [ : - ) ] The majority of Danish farmers don't use "traditional" acounting and/or audit firms, but have pooled their interests into professional associations, that provide such services to the members of such a given association. Here is an example here from Funen : Patriotisk Selskab. [One of the oldest and largest, by the way - I think there are about ten of them in the country.] One of the services provided to the members - it's really highly valued by the members - is that they do a lot of benchmarking down in so many operational details [based on standardized charts of accounts in the shared accounting systems] for each kind of farm, that states basis for operational consultancy services to each separate member to run the member farm more efficiently. [No "traditional" accounting or audit firm can compete with this.] The interesting part is, that some of these associations aren't totally tight about the members finances.[To me, that's bordering to doing something illegal, so I suppose each member has specically agreed to this.] Here [p. 33] is such a tiny window. [i know my fellow Scandinavian CoBF members can read it without problems.] Now what do you see here?: Enormous balance sheets, low earnings, low ROA, low ROE, lots of debt compared to earnings. If you study the P/L in detail, what do you see then?: Please note the EU-subsidies, and compare them to profit Please note "Other business income" [Danish: "Andre erhverv"], which can be [examples]: Hunting fees, if you have forest on the farm, winter storage of RVs and boats, if you have storage capacity in the buildings on the farm in winters, other kinds of storage, put & take fees is you have a lake on the farm, B&B earnings if you have some rooms set up for "farm vacation" etc. Please note "Private income" [Danish: "Private indtægter"]. That is income from work [wage or salary] other places that at the farm - for the farmer and the spouse [<-!] If you adjust for that - what do you then see of earnings? [The EU-subsidies can naturally be discussed.] And it's a cyclical business. In short: The stated equity in the tables is simply non-existent, because what you look at is just a treadmill, generating no real cash flow - actually it is draining you for money, energy and time [occupying - perhaps a major part - of your capacity to work and make money somewhere else] to keep it spinning. - So: Pure DFDS [<- not to be confused with DFDS.CPH!] - Danish Farming Derangement Syndrome. Danish farmers must be an extinct species in the future, unless things change materially - if not for any other reason, then alone for the reason that they are up before sunrise every day, and most likely just pass out late in the night of fatique - every night, seven days a week, meaning no time or energy for reproduction ... - - - o 0 o - - - -Perhaps I got carried away a bit here ... [ : - ) ]
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NewbieD, Yes, I agree with you on that separate matter about DANSKE.CPH. Report from management and board will be released Wednesday the coming week. It's important to understand, that the particular AML issue in Estonia is contained. The branch was simply closed down totally after the "wild party". However, I'm not going get my tie squeezed in mailbox lid here [or, for that matter, any part of my body!], because of the wholly owned bank subsidiary, Realkredit Danmark A/S - the mortgage institution: I consider RKD materially undercapitalized, The debt mountain in Danish farming and agriculture [RKD a major player here], combined with The drought in this summer in Denmark ruining it for this industry already under severe pressure. The "party" has just started with two large bankruptcies within the last few weeks. The domino bricks have started toppling now.
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National Park Services - U.S. Department of Interior: Federal Courthouses and Post Offices: Symbols of Pride and Permanence in American Communities. Wikipedia: General Services Administration - Federal Property and Buildings. GSA: Financial Results by Major Fund - Federal Buildings Fund [old 2012 stuff, I know, but this is what Google gave me.] United States Government Accountability Office - November 2013 - FEDERAL COURTHOUSES - Better Planning Needed Regarding Reuse of Old Courthouses. - - - o 0 o - - - Let's think big, Let's do it together, giving it our very best shot, based on pooled ressources, capabilities and talents [some "carried forward" from Europe, I guess], Let's do it right in the first shot, with room for for expansion, based on long term optimism and entrepreneurship, combined with foresight, Lets do it, because we are actually a society, - - -o 0 o - - - Awesome to read that some American fellow board members to this day still appreciate what your forefathers decided and accomplished.
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Tribe of Mentors? What's best purchase under $50?
John Hjorth replied to Nell-e's topic in General Discussion
I'll second that, Jurgis! [ : - ) ] I look at my CoBF membership as an investment, actually. You buy it, it immediately goes to zero, and the return on the investment then totally is up to yourself! -
Let me just call it long term GARP-investment, rb. PS : Shoulden't you be in bed by now? [ : - ) ]
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Added to SCHO.CPH & BAM during the last couple of days.
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sundin & pbi, Welcome to CoBF! - Please don't be strangers! [ : - ) ]
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A friendly bump!, - especially for new board members who have joined CoBF since the last bump, now almost a year ago. - You could put the information in your forum profile, too!
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Right now I'm reading the BAM compilation provided by Joel. [latest updated version, now 13,909 pages! [ : - D]] I have a practical problem with it ... I somehow feel chained to my office chair, lol, because it goes fine downloading the pdf-file to one of my Windows PCs, but for whatever reason it has not been possible for me to download the file to my iPad ... - it seems like the download stops somewhere in the download process. I'm in the stone age from an operating perspective with regard to an iPad. So far I've only used it to read things [, including much smaller pdf-files from the net, such as annual reports etc., which has so far worked fine]. - I have apps installed on it, - that I actually use, though! Any practical help on this issue from fellow board members would be very much appreciated, thank you in advance.
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Buffett/Berkshire - general news
John Hjorth replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
CNBC transcript of Becky Quick interview with Mr. Buffett on August 30th 2018.