John Hjorth

Gents, How about China and its internal mountain of debt, shadow banks, real estate construction folly [whole empty "ghost" cities] etc.? Some numbers here: [source : Forbes: Worlds largest companies & Wikipedia: Contries by GDP]. China: Major banks - total assets: ICBC USD 4,210.9 B China Construction Bank USD 3,631.6 B Agricultural Bank of China USD 3,439.3 B Total : USD 11,281.8 B China GDP : USD 12.014.6 USA: Major banks - total assets: JPM : 2,609.8 BAC : 2,328.5 B WFC : 1,915.4 C : 1,922,1 Total USD 8,775.8 B US GDP : USD 19,390.6 B

Do you remember this? I'll bet this will never happen again with Mr. Hamburg as CFO. I haven't studied his 2014 bonus in the AGM 2015 proxy, though! [ : - ) ]

More "legacy assets" in my brothers portfolio - small positions: FLS.CPH [F. L. Smidth & Co. A/S] [Website]. NDA DKK.CPH [Nordea Bank AB]. PAAL B.CPH [Per Aaarsleff Holding A/S B] [Website]. - - - o 0 o - - - End of of legacy sweep, except PNDORA.

Welcome to you here on CoBF, KFS! [ : - ) ] Just for your information, there is also the last three client letters from Semper Augustus, which can be accessed here, just in case you don't already know them.

Here I'm reposting an exchange between longinvestor and I in the topic Sequoia Fund Investor Day Transcript. Please note the date of the exchange. Food for thought. I would say that we have a forecaster among us here at CoBF, who can actually forecast. NoCalledStrikes, As always, it's easy to see in the polished & clear rear mirror. [ : -) ] My only addition here is, that rolling out of Berkshire and into something else most likely adds risk to the total portfolio, so the judgement of potential return on what one is rolling into matters much while doing that. [because Berkshire has lot of built-in diversification.] I suggested to do something about all three points by buying Berkshire - a ton - to him. I suggested some sort of average in, to get it roughly right. His reaction: "No, just buy it. You say the entry point right now is not totally silly, and it's long term, right?" I got some BRK.B for him at 182.80 on November 27 in his tax deferred account, and the rest - a lot - the day after - actually the exact day that Berkshire started to take off - at 186.00 in his taxable account. It was just a lucky punch, based on several elements of randomness, that got him out of the start block in a good way with Berkshire. Kudos to you for "timing" Berkshire for your brother. Surely he's happy but hopefully he is "long term". There is a different kind of happiness that the long term shareholder feels but something words cannot express. And my long term started 15 years ago. I met a couple at the Berkshire meeting whose long term started in 1978. Now, let me address the urban myth going around right now; that the tax reform and the resulting benefit to Berkshire is the reason for the recent swelling of the market price. Sure. After all, the market is a voting machine and the math on that is easy. 20% more profits inuring to the shareholders and $37B of one time estimated BV gains ain't shabby at all. Let's get to the weighing machine. I've been calling out (for more than a year) that the IV was well north of what the stock is selling for, now. That 1.2x BV threshold has messed with rationality of lot of folks. I've consistently been in the school that at 1.2x, it was a 70 or 60 or 50 or...xxxty cent dollar. How much of a bargain is a matter of time. Buffett uses "instantly and materially" when he talks about the buyback benefiting remaining shareholders. The 1.2x is a vaguely correct estimate of a ridiculous discount to IV. The market for sure made that precisely wrong. Market value will eventually catch up with IV. - - - o 0 o - - - My apology for not responding to that particular post back then, longinvestor. So short reply here: I have said to my brother, that no matter what happens, Berkshire will be his last stock to sell. His burn rate in retirement, from what he can see right now [start april this year] is basically equal to his state pension, payments from his pension scheme from his former public employment and from ATP. [ https://www.atp.dk/en ]. So no withdrawals from his stockportfolio needed, based on unchanged lifestyle compared to while he was still working. They have only one kid, a young lady of the age 36. Likely she'll be really wealthy later in her life. - - - o 0 o - - - We don't need to take daily notes about volumes, it's all on the Berkshire page at NYSE.

PNDORA.CPH [Pandora A/S]. Doubled a small position to still small. Topic.

I think the line of thinking by longinvestor is backed by the fact that Mr. Buffett hasen't given an interview about it yet [AFAIK]. Nobody can convince me that Becky Quick hasen't tried to get one with him by now.

We'll find out by reading the section "Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds and Issuer Repurchases of Equity Securities" in the next 10-Q [p. 45 in the 2018Q2 10-Q], combined with analysis of "CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY" [p.5 in the 2018Q2 10-Q], about three months from now.

Here is my take, however I haven't ever studied the spread between the A shares and the B shares: If I was Mr. Buffett and and Mr. Munger, I would focus on the B shares to buy, because it's supposed to be the cheapest all the time, because of the irreversible nature of the conversion from A to B, not the other way around. Against that talks, that some blocks of A shares might end up never converted. [Think early Berkshire investors, First Manhattan Berkshire shares etc.] We could track both, and conversions from A to B in the next Q-10. We already know what Mr. Buffett has converted from A to B.

That's great questions, SwedishValue, We need to keep an eye on the development in the daily volume for the next three months, where we'll find out by facts presented to us in the 2018Q3 Q-10, if Berkshire has actually been buying back during the quarter.

I watched this in the evening the Saturday before last Saturday together with the Lady of the House, based on this topic started by Liberty, Honestly, it affected my sleep between that particular Saturday and the Sunday, my brain projecting the description and the picture painted of the person onto to person now in the Worlds most important and influential office. Personally, I don't think it's totally fair to have it under a common theme of "Dirty Money" on Nexflix [compared to some of the other episodes], but for now, just let that go. To me personally, that particular episode paints a picture of a person, who - hmm, err - how should I phrase it ... - lives in another matrix than me, with regard to recognition of reality. [i'm not trying to stir the pot here... - please just consider it a fact, that that's my personal & subjective perception of the picture painted.] Thank you for sharing, Liberty.

Also thank you to you for the elaboration here, Dynamic, - very kind of you. I got it on Yahoo Finance. It's a no go for me, unfortunately, at my broker. I can only find the A in Frankfurt, but not the B. I'm a bit puzzled about it, and will give my broker a call. Your considerations about using BRYN to raise your cost base makes perfect sense to me, based on what you have explained to me earlier about UK capital gain taxes in the "What are you buying today" topic.

Thanks Valuehalla.

I had to look up what Lang & Schwartz is. At what listing are you getting Berskhire shares at that time of the day here in Europe, and outside NYSE, Valuehalla? Is it a separate "unofficial" listing in Germany? [i recall Dynamic talking about some secondary European Berkshire listing not so long ago.]

Somehow hilarious - two billionaire cheapskates! [ : - D ] I think it's about two - thee years ago, I personally left looking at Berkshire based on BV progress. With the soft buyback threshold abolished, or at least making it even softer [upwards <-?], it does not make much sense to me any longer. The future for Berkshire investors boils down to future earnings, future cash flows, & future capital allocation. I speculate we'll survive , no matter what.

Not actually today, but Wednesday this week, where there was a price peak during the day: "Legacy assets": MAERSK B.CPH [A. P. Møller - Mærsk A/S, ser. B], at DKK 9,000.00. My brother built a position gradually November 2014 - March 2015 at average cost at ~DKK 13,400/share, doubled down at ~DKK 8,600 in February 2016, sold half in November 2017 at ~DKK 10,400 based on my recommendation, just before he gave me trading power of attorney on his behalf. He's now out with a positive zero, because of dividends. I'm happy it's over now - the future for this company does not exactly appear to be bright.

What an amazing calculation!, globalfinancepartners, Thank you for digging up the info and doing the calculation. It's almost like Berkshire on an escalator ... - Apple being the escalator, that is. The concept of "meaningful position size" is being taken to the next level here.

Your're welcome, SwedishValue, and thank you for your kind words! [ : - ) ], - Please feel free just to call me John - we are not that formal here on CoBF [ : - ) ]. - - - o 0 o - - - alwaysinvert, I did not even know untill now that we're in the same boat here with Berkshire. Awesome blog post provided by you. Thank you for sharing it with us here on CoBF. Quite refreshing read, containing new line of thinking related to the "luxury problem" of Berkshire here on CoBF. - - - o 0 o - - - Personally, I do not rule out any alternative with regard to Berkshire capital allocation going forward. I'll respectfully submit here, that Mr. Buffett is not totally rational on this matter. alwaysinvert uses the term: Hasen't Mr. Buffet expressed, that there is no way, that he could defend standing in front of the shareholders at the AGM with USD 150 B on the Berkshire balance sheet in cash and T-bills? - He would actually have been in that particular situation right now, haden't he loaded up on Apple. In the balance between rational capital allocation and the reluctance of buying partners out, going forward, naturally rationality must prevail. When you deliberately seek to build a crowd of long term shareholders aligned with yourself, a side effect is lower liquidity in the stock. One can't get both simultaniously. Personally, I don't possess any particular feelings for the customers and fund managers at: Vanguard [9.24 % of out B] Blackrock [7.66 % of out B] State Street [6.25 % of out B] Just let them do their thing, and let Mr. Buffett do our thing. When Mr. Buffet was young, he was ringing doorbells in Omaha to pick up shares he considered cheap.

Here I'm reposting some basic Berkshire figures [from some of my earlier posts, updated with 2017 figures] - from a birds perspective - related to the topic, just to bring specific data into the discussion. I think they are handy to have here: Some numbers for the last ten years: Year - Cash YE [incl. T-Bills] - Equity YE [uSD M]: 2007 - 44,329 - 120,733 2008 - 25,539 - 109,267 2009 - 30,558 - 135,785 2010 - 38,227 - 162,934 2011 - 37,299 - 164,850 2012 - 46,992 - 187,647 2013 - 48,186 - 221,890 2014 - 60,033 - 240,170 2015 - 67,161 - 255,550 2016 - 86,370 - 282,070 2017 - 115,954 - 348,296 [2017 tax cut effect [net] +28,200] Average shares outstanding YE2007 : 1,545,751 [A eq.] Average shares outstanding YE2017 : 1,644,615 [A eq.] Cash flow from operating activities full years this century [uSD B]: 2000: 2.947 2001: 6.574 2002: 11.135 2003: 8.438 2004: 7.405 2005: 9.446 2006: 10.195 2007: 12.550 2008: 11.252 2009: 15.846 2010: 17.895 2011: 20.476 2012: 20.950 2013: 27.704 2014: 32.010 2015: 31.491 2016: 32.525 2017: 45.776 Total: 324.615 [<- ~USD 325 B!] Float YE 2000 : USD 27.9 B Float YE 2017: USD 114.0 B [increase in float is included in cash flow from operating activities.]

Information.dk [August 2nd 2018]: "The cooling water has become too hot: The heatwave now hits the nuclear power plants in Europe".

"He's the one who gives his body as the weapon for the war and without him all this killing can't go on." - Donovan - Universal soldier How’s that analysis work when there is a draft? Well the draft complicates matters severely ... Draft is one of the biggest crimes against freedom. Do you know the song "and the band played Waltzing Matilda" by Eric Bogle? One of the saddest songs ever written imo. I still say try to desert when drafted if at all possible but I realize that's very difficult to do while keeping yourself safe. Nation states truly are savages in such situations. About draft - without the intention to derail the topic -, here in Denmark we have had the legal choice of opting for denial of military service since 1917.

Liberty, If you read the tweet by Mr. Browder, that you linked to earlier in this topic, it contains: [My emphasis here.] Mr. Browder uses the Russian website press release as source, and by logic, you don't see any basis in that press release as basis for Mr. Browder's tweet, for the part that I've emphasized. So, my question here is: What is this? 1. Mr. Browder takes the public Russian statement for more than what it is, by quoting it incorrectly in his tweet, thereby elaborating on it, with no real basis?, or 2. Mr. Browder takes the public Russian statement as par, but is in possesion of further information, which he includes in his tweet, without adressing source? In short: Who are those public US officials, that are involved in this new [<-?] case, mentioned in the aforementioned tweet by Mr. Browder, not mentioned in the Russian Press Release?

Liberty, I already know all that posted by you in your last post here. What I actually want to discuss with you is what's going on right now, understood as facts now [now = today]. I could start it out? [i still think the discussion is relevant for the book and has merit here in Books forum.]

It's difficult in fellowship to analyze and discuss facts [as presented to us] based on your approach, Liberty. I'll just let it go.

Liberty, Please try to press on the "Union Jack" button in that article linked to by Mr. Browder in that particular tweet, and please try to consider how he can tweet like he has done in that particular tweet based on this: