Spekulatius

Agree pretty much on everything. Unfortunately a lot of things from the 70's seems to come back - energy shortage (in some parts), inflation, cold war, decline of the big cities. Some older folks may be more suited to understand the landscape than the younger ones who have seen none of this. But then again, I may be showing my own bias here.

Biden was the first US president who stood up to Putin. None before did anything and the list is long - Bush, Obama, Trump all were in the appeasement camp. Putin's miscalculation was that Biden would just be another on in the appeasement list and that clearly isn't the case. The blunders in Afghanistan and how to get out of there are a different matter. The bigger mistake was probably to get in in the first place. The discussion here reveals much more about personal biases than the topic at hand. I am including myself here to blame as well.

Sure looks like it. Typed it on my iPad and this thing has a way of twisting my words.

On the Nifty fifty, most of the best performing Nifty 50 stocks weren’t WLK that expensive. The best performing one was OM which had a Peof 24 cvs the market multiple of 20. Many others weren’t nit that expensive either. Some of the most expensive one were tech companies back then like Polaroid (90x+ PE and Digital equipment ~60x) which didn't last ironically. So on a way, even the Nifty Fifty show that price paid matters some what but of course the mist important factor is durability.

Another great one from Damodaran here: Again explains the story and numbers side of valuation and when it applies more when (stories matter more early in the life cycle, numbers more later) A great example of valuation with Fisher and Paykel ( NZ medical business ) which is clearly a local market darling and Damodaran comes up with a way lower valuation than the current EV. Seems to upset some people attending but he explains that this may be a great example of a home bias (NZ stock market is small with very little growth companies and Fisher and Peykel is unique there which likely gives it a higher valuation than if listed elsewhere. He makes some statement regarding AI: “When everyone has it, no one has an advantage etc”. He think if anything, AI will likely lower profit margins overall not increase them.

Before they die, the hero's get beaten up.

This Sputnik_not parody account has some great posts:

Most of them die, I know that much.

No idea. Nobody seems to talk about it afterwards. Jack Ma, Fan Bingbing and many others could tell a story but they won't. Even XJP basically underwent an re-education under Mao when his dad was disgraced from the party. I guess it "works" in some cases.

If I recall Michael Clarks talk correctly, the end state is to do what he did with Belarussia and create a vasal state with a leader that is his puppet. In fact for quite some time in the early 2000, he had just that in place. He almost had Ukraine under control until it slipped away in the orange and the Euromaiden revolution. Must be infuriating for him and that's his issue, not the NATO expansion (imo). Putin is going to grab any part of the former Soviet empire that is not going to join another power center like NATO. Maybe Kazakhstan goes to China which would put it out of his reach. Otherwise they are next most likely. Their leader for now seem Putin friendly, although not enthusiastically so recently.

The behavioral and narrative aspect of Value investing is just as important than the an analytical one and I am terrible at this. FB is a recent advantage where I managed to lose a bit money, even though I added some at the bottom (sold way to early on the way up and was glad to get out). these narrative play out all the time TSLA and AI being a recent example. I think it’s an entirely different skill set than the analytical part and perhaps just as important. Aswath Damadoran said that “every stock valuation is a story as well” and this only recently sunk in with me.

LOL, sounds like a soap opera. People disappear in China all the time and most of the time they later reappear. I guess it depends on how the re- education goes. I still don’t understand how this is particularly relevant.

Michael Clark is always a good listen. He discusses the the current aid packages (lots of rumored vehicles), the NATO summit and the (lack of) russian command Post Wagner Coup. I say this much. There is almost no way Ukraine does not become a NATO member eventually.

Chomsky is the guy who claimed Afghanistan war has cost us $7T which is about the combined defense budget while it lasted. I checked the paper and they are extrapolating future costs somehow for the next 30 years and don't seem to discount it back. I actually respect Chomsky but he clearly has a way with facts.

@sleepydragon Who is Fu Xiaotian and why would we care where she goes?

Trimmed CASH and CMCSA a bit. CMCSA mostly because I am somewhat concerned about one more dump acquisition.

Some of the consumer good companies have lost a lot of unit volume and don't seem to give a damn. I read CAG earnings release and they mention pricing +17%, but revenue is only up 6.6%. This implies they have lost 9% ij volume YoY. https://app.tikr.com/stock/transcript?cid=26893&tid=2602239&e=1841627946&ts=2850614&ref=o94y6y Seem kind of scary though to lose 9% of the volume, but what do I know. I think Pepsi also lost unit volumes. Do People really eat less Slim Jim's or Doritos or do they buy store brands?

As retail investor, I consider the chance that I can change management as fairly slim.

I agree with @scorpioncapital here - most value traps I have encountered are asset heavy with asset not generating much or any cash flow. I rarely have value traps that had high cash flow yield to owners with the exception of debt heavy companies with shrinking cash flows (which are probably the most risky investments one can make). that's why my twitter handle has "I look at the cash flow statement first" in my profile. I still do sometimes break this rule....

Well, the Saudis have been buying Russian oil for a discount and use it for domestic consumption , so they can export more of their own. Any crude that is produced is going somewhere…

I think these are numbers for 2022 only and recently France has delivered their light AMX tank and other material recently. Even Italy (which has been leaning pro Russian somewhat ) has recently started to deliver more aid to Ukraine. Macron has received quite a bit of ridicule for his diplomatic ventures in Europe.

Germany has turned the page on Merkel, I can say that much. Although, there are still people in Germany that think they can bury the head in the sand and this will all blow over without doing anything. There are fewer of them fortunately, I think.

Very common issue, destroyed many marriages: https://babylonbee.com/news/three-hours-into-explanation-woman-regrets-asking-husband-why-they-didnt-fly-the-eagles-to-mordor

Great list. You can add that managed to get India to pivoting away from Russia. Greatest CIA intelligence spyop ever that nobody talks about.

Yes, he recommended a 2-3 year holding period for value stock buys: