Spekulatius

Nothing yet. I do not think Irans nuclear potential has been destroyed and this going re- emerge as a problem. The choices from then on for the US will be tougher and likely require a much deeper involvement. If you look at this from an Iranian perspective given their background it is quite clear that only being a nuclear power gets you a seat on the table. i also think they will get know how help from Russia. The Ukrainian war has shown that even though the China/Russia/Iran/NK axis avoid direct involvement in others wars, they do help out each other.

I have some shares in ACVA which uses AI for their wholesale used car market place business. It’s used for pricing, but also to estimate the condition of the cos, as well as damage estimates based on fotos. It’s obvious to use AI if you have a lot of data and are a digital disrupter anyways. For legacy business, the challenge is to get clean data in a way that’s suitable for LLM ingestion, the skill of the employee base, including the IT personal, integrating the AI in existing systems as well as training the users. https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_da26f5697c332c8c5b5e6db6df5ebb08/acvauto/db/937/8424/presentation/ACVA_Q1-25_Earnings+Presentation_FINAL.pdf I think overall, AI makes it easier for a digital challenger to win against an incumbent who may not be able to move that fast on AI adoption.

There is no way that Trump achieve his goals with 10% tariffs. They are going to be way higher for the EU most likely. The EU in officially offered 10% and it seems Trump wants much higher. I think the 35% for non USMC compliant good shows the ballpark number that we are looking at. Also keep in mind that the USD already devalued an out 10% against most other currencies since Trump got started, so that adds to that. If Trump gets a lapdog Fed chair, the USD is giving lower, I think.

It’s funny how they brake down jobs between native Borns and other which include people like me (. Non native citizens). I don’t agree with your conclusions. Native born jobs are up, but less so than the rise in native born population, which leads to labor participation going down. Non native born population shows similar trend just a bit more pronounced. I am not sure this a big win. In any case, the labor market is still pretty strong as has been the case during the last administration.

So you think the war against Iran is over?

There see quite a few MAGA followers who just want “to burn everything down“. Biden government was great for my personal wealth and I expect Trump to be the same but you have to approach it different- less buy and hold and more trading. Trump will make volatility great again. As for drawdowns, Trump already had a 20% drawdown just 4 month in, totally self inflicted and I think we get more of the same. We are also now in a war with Iran, Russia still going all in Ukraine and I think China is going to work on project Taiwan and I think we will see a forceful takeover attempt ( may not be invasion) this decade. I think the way the war went in Ukraine made this way more likely. Also the Chinese are building there own Semiconductor supply chain, so if Taiwans most advanced fabs go offline , they benefit even if they can’t take the island itself. They are ~5-10 years behind so if the most advanced fabs in Taiwan go offline (which are 2-3 years ahead of the rest), they made up half the tech gap to the west. Then the silicon shield protecting Taiwan would be gone, so would Trump Even have an incentive to defend it in this situation? I think we all know the answer.

Deal or no deal with Vietnam? Nobody knows… https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/10/vietnam-trump-tariff-deal-00447715

How did he get into this tournament to begin with? Just pay $$$?

Does anyone have an idea why? Brazil got dinged because he want to help out his buddy Bolsanero. Brazil imports more from the US than they export, so I don’t think this is going to work.

This “it’s all about China” has been debunked as Trump has instituted high tariffs on Japan and Korea and now Brazil. Granted, the tariffs with Trump are spot rate as they can change daily but it’s not exactly allies and neutral countries toward the US.

Sold remainder of my MEGACPO in my tax deferred accounts .

Nuts to meddle in internal affairs with tariffs: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/07/09/economy/tariff-letters-trump

I think this is pretty much priced in as consensus view. My Tikr consensus shows 2.2% expected growth for 2025, which is in the middle of the 0-4%range. The question is - does it get worse from here?

Another one bites the dust: https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/07/europe/russian-minister-suicide-intl Looks like Putin is doing some housecleaning.

Sold most of my MegaCPO in my tax deferred account. Worked out OK due to averaging down. Sold out of $ZS completely.

Thai is possible but a rather optimistic take. I think form my experience, US companies that compete with imports will take the opportunity to raise prices also. We already saw this with steel and Aluminum. There are also increased costs from supply chain snarls due to holdups from custom which has trouble processing all those now tariffed goods. Also now you have to document the country of origin not just of the final product but also the components, since it is needed to calculate the tariffs rate. This can get rather complicated. There are also odd things going on too with Aluminum goods for example. If you can’t prove where your Aluminum comes from, because you bought it from a dealer warehouse, you are now subject to 200% tariff rates , because custom assumes it comes from Russia (which has a punitive 200% tariff rate). So the administrative cost of all this isn’t negligible. I have seen some crazy changes in the cost of good within days on quotes based on what those tariffs rules were that point was. I am sure this is all going to smooth out over time, but still.

He seems like a great musician but sounds too generic with his Blues/ Rock. There were many such talents at that time. He should have joined a band to create something that stands out more, imo.

Ouch: Now she is starting a roofing company?

I think 70% is just a threat, but could be wrong. In any case, I think we are going to see macro headwind from tariffs - not as much as the worst case scenario but much more than the best case scenario which currently seems to be priced into stocks.

Based in the deal with Vietnam (20% tariffs) I think the tariffs for most countries or trade blocks (EU) are going to be higher than 10% rate that has been floating around, so still probably inflationary. I wonder who is going to get dinged with 70% tariffs per Trumps announcement? Next week the letters should go out.

Another exec (from Transneft) falling from a window of this apartment in Russia: https://www.newsweek.com/top-russian-oil-executive-dies-moscow-window-fall-2094669

Agreed. my point is that sometimes adding a new asset class does not reduce risk.p, if the asset class you are adding is overvalued in the history context, If you had no tech exposure in 2000 and felt undiversified, then adding tech exposure back then increased your risk. You always have to use common sense. I think Gold right now feels a bit overbought too, but that is a bit harder to handicap,

It’s like everything else. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. Bond suck if interest rates are record low and they almost yield nothing . Who would have thought? Japanese treasury bond yield are a case in point- the 30 years went from 0.6% to almost 3% now:

We had some sparkling wine from the Loire for the 4th which was from the purchase above. A bit different than Champagne- a bit less soapy ( Champagne sometimes has a somewhat soapy taste from the chalk soil). The sparkler from Loire is a bit cheaper than Champagne and was recommend by that wine dude at Total Wine (which are awesome here). I highly recommend it too. We also had some Indian food here from a new place close by and washed it down with a Pilsner and Lager while listening to Americana acoustic duo at a local brewery. This is America!

Postmortem on some sales: $4368 - this chemical producer / supplier the semiconductor industry did OK. I sold because results and forcast seemed below my expectations. Found this one via a WSJ article $9386- sold because the results of this logistic co seems pretty underwhelming at a profit. Stocks received a management buyout offer shortly after I sold, up more than 50% Ouch. Found this one with a screen initially. $4290. High end call center for automobile emergencies etc. Growth stock with a fairly large founder stake. Results seem to stall out so I sold for a decent profit. Stock has been weak since and down from my purchase price . Found this one via FinTwit initially.