Spekulatius

You can just go with another lender, depending on how much you sunk into mortgage application. They very likely will have different appraiser hopefully coming up with a better valuation. Appraisals are just a few hundred $, I think.

wow that's great. Must be a really nice cabin at $315 per night vs all the other cabins on Air BNB at less than half of that. Some here say needs to be taken with a grain of salt, sort of like claims on stock portfolio performance ::)

I did the same thing a while ago. I actually asks my appraiser for a low appraisal and used that to get my taxes lowered. However, I didn’t have loan to value issues either.

Another “crappola” spin-off. What is the thesis now, since the initial thesis of a software subscription business seems to busted? Or is this thesis still intact in your opinion? Was the thesis ever that this was a software subscription business? Maybe your opinion of CVET is shared by others, which makes my thesis more plausible that the business fundamentals will be strong for a long time while being hard to understand in the present, and potentially a source of excess returns. But that's what makes a market. Yes, I believe that was the thesis. But this software business is small and the company is loaded with debt. early indication are that the business doesn’t generate much cash. If you are just interested in the distribution business, you can buy PDCO, which although it is not a pure play on animal health, trades at a very undemanding valuation.

Using about every cliche about the Millennial generation there is. My sample size is small, but from the handful of millennials I als I know from work, no fits this description. As for the student loan bailout, it’s inevitable, imo. Once the millennial generation puts their mark on the political landscape, it’s only a matter of time. Ah, Greg was a grumpy, 65-year old senior when he came out of his mother's womb, so I would take that all with a grain of salt...especially on the $9 avocado toast...it's more like $15 everywhere! That being said, the stats don't lie, and they do show that Millennials are struggling on a broad basis. So maybe not your immediate peer group, but certainly the age category. And truth is that is natural since they come out of school with debt, carry mortgage debt, credit card debt and auto loans as they build their young careers. But the sheer weight is enormous for this age category compared to Boomers, Gen X & Y, etc at the same age. Cheers! No question the issue with student loan debt is real. The peer group I am referring to are all engineers, so they have a decent paying job, which goes a long way towards solving the problem.

Using about every cliche about the Millennial generation there is. My sample size is small, but from the handful of millennials I als I know from work, no fits this description. As for the student loan bailout, it’s inevitable, imo. Once the millennial generation puts their mark on the political landscape, it’s only a matter of time.

Another “crappola” spin-off. What is the thesis now, since the initial thesis of a software subscription business seems to busted? Or is this thesis still intact in your opinion?

Bought back some WAB. Price seems under pressure after the secondary (GE liquidating shares they received as a merger consideration). Starter in BNTGY (Brenntag). Small adds to BRK and WMB.

He bought a lot of bank stocks, but hasn’t touched the trust banks. I don’t think he has got much love for them.

On overall basis, I do, actually. The question is if this is warranted, or I'm naive. Perhaps it's not only about the Danish legal system, but also about that I live a place, where we have some kind of a "dual legal" system - the legal system and The Law of Jante. Parts of the Danish press practise The Law of Jante zealously. Here is a hilarious example. ["You can't speed up a Tesla when it's standing still" and "I haven't filed a police report for violence against me by the officers because they were two against one." [ : - D]] The real problem is that I may be severely biased here because I forget about such cases [related to equality for the law] in the long run - simply because I don't give a damn about them [like example above], and because I haven't really seen some appalling evidence that there exist exemptions from equality for the Law. There is a risk that the casuality in this line of thinking may be logically flawed. So, thank you for asking, wachtwoord. Home bias for sure, but having lived in both the US and Germany, I would trust the legal system in Nordic countries, Germany, France and UK more so than in the US. I believe the jury system, quality of the defending lawyer and prosecutor as well as location can make the outcome of a trial quite unpredictable. A conviction for the same crime can have vastly different outcomes which is much less the case Europe. However, I am not a legal expert nor have I run into legal issues anywhere.

Water is an interesting field, but it’s hard to invest in. In the end, who owns the water and who can do what with it is determined by politics. There is and industry around water (irrigation, desalination, filtration, pumps), but it’s actually not growing that fast and I don’t think there are any huge moats there either.

Likely sectors are chemicals (maybe DuPont, or LYB) or aerospace. They have already toeholds in both, so there would be a knowledge base in the company about what to buy. Both are durable business that will not go away. Buffet sold of PSX, so I don’t think he will venture in the refinery sector.

Just present facts without any judgment. You researched this individual online and found out these violations. I wouldn’t even call him a swindler (which is a judgement) and you don’t know the terms of the annuity , so I wouldn’t even comment on that. Then if the customer is interested, offer further help to investigate or look at the annuity contract. It‘s then up to the customer to take action and work with you or somebody else. That’s what I would do, but then again, I am not an investment advisor.

Sold REZI after the earnings report. I had reduced my position before the CC, but sold out after. While they made the revenue and earnings number, it was a very low quality report. Gross margin does and the pro forma # excludes the indemnity payment to HON (capped at $140M/ year). This payment is represented on the balance sheet as a $580M liability , but I think it will cost more. Anyway, thy have about $1.1B in debt (costing ~$70M in interest) and don’t seem to be able to generate any FCF currently. I misjudged this, it’s another crappo spinoff (GTX is a sinking ship also), so I take my 15% loss and move on. KTB is doing better than I thought, also the earnings report is nothing to write home about either.

Familiar is too strong of a word, but I have owned them for a little while. I was attracted by the cheap metrics. I sold after reviewing the first earnings after they announced their LXFT acquisition , which had not closed yet at that time. ( it was a negative earnings surprise). I felt this was quite complex and the business may be in rapid decline. Also, the Luxoft acquisition felt like a desperate measure. I exited flat, so avoided this dumpster fire. This company feels like a bunch of crappy IT companies held together tight duct tape. The buybacks have significantly worsened their balance sheet. I don’t feel like I have a handle if this can turn around and managment isn’t exactly inspiring either.

Maybe they are too deep in? If rates increase, the value of those low/no/ negative interest rates bonds would drop and the bagholders owning them wouldn’t broke. Maybe all that can be done at this point is dig deeper.

I think Buffet hates commodity business , after all they are just price takers.

I had some Oct SPY $285 puts. Bought it with SPY at 3000 about 2 weeks ago. In sold them yesterday when the SPY his 2850 (too early). So far, I had good luck with SPY puts but then again, I am playing with a small sum (0.15% portfolio position). It was a 2.5 bagger. One thing I look out for when I buy puts is low volatility. When volatility goes up, the put prices quickly gets prohibitive. I regard these puts as partial portfolio insurance when I consider the chance of a drawdown to be high.

Adds: BRK.B, BAESY REZI and WMB. New position: MOG A - aerospace component supplier with a reasonable valuation.

I owned this in the past but I feel like other distributors like MSM are better values. WCC seems to rent out their balance sheet to customers - their cash flow they stable and they have a fair amount of leverage.

BRK‘s result were pretty mediocre. Industrial/other business earnings were flat, Railroads were up a little and insurance underwriting was down quite a bit. KHC earnings are missing from their last earnings, but that’s only $185M. Not, that one should buy BRK for one quarterly earnings, but still - it seems that the slowing economy leaves a mark on the income statement.

Glad some politicians are pushing on this - the ACH system with a 3 day lag is a disgrace and should be replaced by a faster almost instant payment system. Might have implications for Fintech, banks and payment companies like Visa and MC? A faster payment system will cost the banks float. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sen-van-hollen-to-powell-get-moving-on-faster-payments-195229023.html

Bought some LYB ( I felt the earnings report was way better than the stock response to it) and a little more WMB. $$$Dividends.

Is that safe to do? - Wouldn't it be more safe buying some 30 years negative yielding German Bund? [<- J/K] Is it safe?

Happy BRK.B <$200 Friday.