Spekulatius

I ended up adding to FOX and GILD and bought back some RYCEY

Sold my SPY puts.

Besides just the fact that they keep investing in crap business, they don’t seem to dump the losing bets either or they can’t. The Stelco investment really got me to second guess. I think they are like 0:3 with their commodity investments. Why don’t they just put some money in Enbridge or something like this. It huge and liquid too and Canadian. They could just cash in the dividend checks yielding ~6.5% and wouldn’t really need to think. This would work even if the shares don’t go anywhere.

A coworker once told me, after we had some political discussion at work, that “Opinions are like A$$holes, everyone got one, and no one cares about any except their own.” I guess it’s basically true, especially when discussion politics. I have also decided to block out the board, I have enjoyed to sometimes post (or troll there), but I think it’s just a waste of time and energy.

ANTM doesn't look cheap at all. Could you share the thesis? It’s GARP. ~$19/ share in earnings and a growth rate > 10%. It’s not crazy cheap, but it trades at a historically large discount to market in terms of PE. This discount is due to political uncertainty (some Democratic candidates proposing single payer /Medicare for all).

I beg to differ somewhat. I don’t condone restricting investing in China, but I can understand to forbid the nefarious VIE structures via letterbox holding companies in tax havens for listed companies. The fact is that as an investor in BABA and all these listed companies, you do not own these companies directly, own a contractural right (anyone ever seen these contracts, because I haven’t ) via a multilayered hold8ng structure while in realty a Chinese person or entity really owns this. This was done to get around the problem that the Chinese government does not allow direct ownership of Chinese companies in many sectors to foreigner. It is also a structure that is ideally set up to scam foreign investor out their money without any recourse. so, I think a case can be made that the US should not allow this structure for US listed stocks and the Chinese have a choice either to change their ownership rules ( just like most other countries) and allow foreign ownership and essentially open their capital markets, or those companies delist and trade in the OTC markets.

I like FOX ( as a business, content is another matter), but don’t think that BRK want to be seen controlling a major media/news company. It‘s just too much headaches. I can see them buying a stake or a large position in DIS at the right price. I think there are a lot of business that BRK would be interested in, but the question is more of a seller parting a price that Warren is comfortable with. That intersection is very very small apparently.

I think this one could go from $35B in valuation to bankruptcy in record speed. Someone twittered that with equity market closed, the bonds now start to get into trouble. Then there will be a cascade down to owners of RE too. You have got to admire Neumann here. He made hundred of millions with a total unviable business that didn’t even make it to the IPO.

Napkin thesis came from a recent WFC report on the health care insurance group. ANTM trades at an almost 40% discount to market, which is close to a recent trough discount in 2013 (42%). Average discount to market is ~23%. ANTM is the largest insurer in the market it operates together with UNH. scale matters and health I surname is a pretty good business. Stock trades on political concerns (it fell to a recent low during the first democratic debate when Medicare for all become a big talking point), but those political trends tend to be overrated by Mr Market. If you look further back, then ANTM has traded at single digit PE vs 12x now, so there room to fall.

Bought a bit more FOX and a starter in ANTM.

Softbank / Son are the Hunt brothers of venture capital : https://www.foxbusiness.com/financials/softbank-buy-wework-shares-ipo https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/09/silver-thursday-hunt-brothers.asp Even back then, Saudi‘s were involved as well.

If you liked this, check this out: https://josephnoelwalker.com/69-the-world-according-to-a-maverick-beach-biding-stock-picker-john-hempton/ It's like 3-hours of Hempton.. Almost through it and I agree it’s a great podcast. It’s interesting that he mentions a Chinese bromide manufacturer as a fraud, which I recall as GFRE and I looked at this in 2010/11 as it was a favorite on the message board I was frequenting ( and still do, Irs Mike Burry‘s old thread on SI) https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26825434

Sold GTS today for a quick small gain.

None of this would have mattered if the news hadn’t picked up on this and the IPO had gone through. The board of directors and Son would have nodded to everything Neumann would have proposed.

Advanced Energy is heavily tied to the semiconductor and display industry. Their power supplies are used for thin film deposition pretty much everywhere.

Producing Wind turbines is a mediocre business at best. I looked at Vestas a while ago and didn’t see a reason to get exited.

Rebought some FOX Bought a starter in GTS, a crappy insurance business in Puerto Rico, trading at an even crappier price. Bought an even smaller starter in SPOT.

I wish I have gotten tequila shots every time people got fired in the company I worked for. I don’t think I would have been sober at work in late 2000 and 2001 at all. The more I think about it, so more I like the idea.

Why would he? If she can do deals that are too small for BRK, the gains won’t be material. If she were to compete with BRK he doesn’t have a reason to invest in her vehicle either.

Cigarbutt’s posts are almost always very well thought out and useful.

Tracy monetizes her experience gained with Buffet . Nothing wrong with this, but no guarantee for success either. The problem with anyone starting out with a BRK copycat is if they can afford to be patient. There are plenty of holding companies with good capital allocators that can be bought at a discount to NAV.

Regardless of why the repo rates increased dramatically and who was involved, in the end, it seems like several big boys in our financial system found themselves short on cash and with their pants down. I guess we all have seen this movie before. I personally think the Fed shouldn’t have stepped in, if if they borrow, they should have lend out at a high interest rate too. Perhaps this is related to the recent rebound in interest rates after a huge bull market in treasuries, but I am not sure.

A value buy it seems as you got in before the spike to $100/ bro that’s some doomsters predict. I think it will be more like $2-5$/brl and quickly reverse. I doubt there much supply impact from the drone attack. FWIW, so many oil heated homes on the East coast. It would be a great green energy plan to have them all connected to natural gas. Does this Gregmal guy ever get his timing wrong? He's on some epic streak! Tesla is probably going broke a few days after he bought some puts on the stock. FWIW, I bought some SPY 280 Dec 20 index puts for hedging yesterday.

A value buy it seems as you got in before the spike to $100/ bro that’s some doomsters predict. I think it will be more like $2-5$/brl and quickly reverse. I doubt there much supply impact from the drone attack. FWIW, so many oil heated homes on the East coast. It would be a great green energy plan to have them all connected to natural gas.

For the macro folks out there, anybody noticed that the inflation numbers are pointing up and pretty fast apparently. YoY change is ~2.7% now and the monthly annualized change ~3.6% and high 3 month in a row. Of course there is a signal and the noise issue, but this seems worrisome. The inflation target is 2% and we are way above that. I wonder what the Fed officials are thinking about this. https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice/