Spekulatius

What is your take on deep OTM index puts vs deep OTM individual security puts. I won't mention names, because that could redirect the focus to specific company talk, but wouldn't it perhaps make a better setup to cherry pick the most endangered of species? We can all use our(relatively speaking) more sophisticated investing insights to basketize(I might have just made up a new word) the same general hedge trade, no? An index will never go to 0, but select securities can. I've been doing the OTM put stuff now for the past few months with pretty decent success(not to lose sight of the fact that you and others Ive noticed have been doing the same but with the index and VIX), so Im just trying to see where the greatest risk/reward setup is. Would a subjectively selected Warren basket outperform the broader index which would also include names that benefit, IE healthcare? I prefer Index puts to be on market movements (both up and down ) for two of reasons 1) index outs are cheaper and more liquid 2) in a sharp downturn, everything tends to get correlated and so the cheaper puts give you more bang for the buck and allow for better trading

You guys just need to by deep out of the money index puts. I think it’s probably a good idea at the right time. The economy is slowing down, manufacturing even in the US is already in a contraction and yet stocks are at record level, seemingly unconcerned about this and the political risk. Or perhaps buy some gold as a cash alternative in case central banks go even more bonkers than they do already.

I bet you can, but most honest people wouldn't do that. Keep in mind though that you're effectively charging back Air BNB. Just because you charge it back doesn't mean that you don't owe money anymore. I would request a refund in a heart beat in this situation. I use Amex for most purchases where I don’t know the vendor well and they are very good about getting you your money back; a simple phone call will do. If AirBnb would throw me out so be it. My wife can sign up for a new account if I really think I need it, or I go to VRBO.

Oil and gas has underperformed in the US just as much as they did in Canada. Have you looked at the shale stocks in the US? I almost think if Warren would ban fracking (or try to because I only think the respective states could do so and they wouldnt) the E&P stocks would go up, because at least NG would shot up in price. It’s almost like the gun industry and Obama, which did much better under Obama than Trump. Anyways, Canada has a huge resource industry representation in the stock market and lacks high tech and that why the market has underperformed, not because of the Government in place. We probably should get back on topic and discuss bubbles or lack there off.

^ A big thanks to the authorities (Viking and Cigarbutt) for going through the earnings release. It saves me quite a bit of time. As I mentioned in the “what did you buy today” thread, I reentered FFH in a small way for a trade. I think $480-500 are possible. The results are a post I’ve surprised to me, I expected a loss in book value and they gnerwtrd a small gain. I am a bit concerned about the increased leverage (at the holding level) which in conjunction with their substantial equity holdings (as a percentage of equity) makes this quite a leveraged bet, compared to for example BRK or an insurer like RE or TRV. (RE is more of a single line insurer with large catastrophe exposure, so they have a different kind of risk).

The bubble may not within the equity market, it’s want in the equity markets either in 2007, when valuations were actually lower than they are now. The bubble is most likely related to some lending, could be European real estate (bubble due to low or non existent interest rates ) or the whole negative yielding bond markets which are trillions of Euro in size. One could argue that this is a bigger bubble than the subprime mortgages were in 2007.

Same here.

stupid comment. if you have single class shares and pick the right guy, he stays and we all make money. if you have a single class shares and you pick the wrong guy, you can fire him and stop losing money. either way dual class shares is stupid for shareholders. I totally agree. Right guy or wrong, guy, the dual class shares make no sense.

Sold my NOW trading shares. Is it just me - I think the new CEO Bill McDermott with his tinted glasses and bling watch looks more like a strip club owner than a CEO.

No drugs, booze or tobacco in Berkshire’s portfolio unfortunately. The most profitable business or those that kill people slowly.

It’s also notable that with a regulated industry, it really cannot be correct that only PCG is too blame. Capex and operational expenses need to go through the regulator. I don’t think if PG&E had asked for $10B to harden the grid in 2015 because of inherent fire danger, they would not have gotten approval to do so. Same with tree trimming to some extend. The ball is really in the Californians government court to change the rules. I am pretty sure that BHE would be interested to invest, given the right framework and some cap and liabilities. Note that PCG actually produced pretty good numbers before the first disaster in 2017, due to expanding rate bases from the switch to renewables, which also raised electricity bills for customers quite a bit. I think there is way more to come of the latter. The best action may be for the CA government to take control of PCG and then work on creating a framework that makes the utility investible for the private sector again.

In my humble opinion, this is another example of the brilliance displayed by Mr. Buffett and his model. He is in a position to negotiate without having actually entered the negotiation process as (I imagine) he would look for some kind of partnership where the public entity would be responsible for a reinsurance type of excess loss deal on past and future wildfires' damages. I'd say he will pretend to have no real interest but he may have defined the price he's ready to pay and the mantle of protection required already with the potential to close a transaction at a lightning speed. PG&E could be a great deal for BRK, because Berkshire has both utility management, insurance capacity and expertise and the ability to write a Check worth tens of billions of $. There is really no competition out there who can even Doo all three.

Yes, Libra seems an oxymoron since the main allure of a cryptocurrency is no supervision by any institution, least a central bank. Also ( and related to above) they are useful for money laundering( or what the government defines as such). I think FB should have issued a token, not a currency or should have sold it as a token, even if it acts as a currency. Just bad marketing all around.

Mine owns a gym and a lot of lockers.

Conversion to a C Corp means a huge tax bill for LP’s especially those that held the units long term and have a low tax basis (distributions adjust the cost basis downwards). Same thing happened when Kinder merged then LP into KMI. I agree this would be more technical than fundamental, it we might get a huge puke, when these initiative comes to pass and LP owners freak out.

I don’t feel like a thread on just one of these stocks will get much traction, perhaps a thread on SAAS stocks? This is not typical value investor terroir, but nevertheless interesting.

A breakup of MPC ( Sponsor and majority owner of MPLX ) is not a positive for MPLX most likely. Could you kindly explain? As a majority holder of units, MPC would be on both sides of the transaction. If a transaction is favorable for MPC and marginally favorable or neutral for MPLX, it would pass a fairness opinion and would go through. I believe the main Elliot pitch is that MPLX units should be distributed to shareholders. If that happens, I would expect a hell lot of selling because most shareholders can’t or don’t want hold MLP units. This is not directly a negative for the MLP itself, but certainly for the current minority unit holders.

A breakup of MPC ( Sponsor and majority owner of MPLX ) is not a positive for MPLX most likely.

Thanks for the feedback. I cannot comment on the purchasing part. As a user, I have used the GUI For IT Service and it is head and shoulders above what we had before. I cannot really comment on NOW software overall but I do know that workflow management is one of those things that is really core to a companies business processes, unlike applications like slack, which cover communication amongst employees and can get replaced relatively easily without disruption. I think the same thing about some analytics (which tend to affect only a few employers and something managment just says, screw them and put up) or security (which may become more commoditized). So in other words, if NOW’s products is in a company, it’s almost impossible to get it out gain.

Despite the fact that the financials are a mess and the execution was lacking, I actually think that the Wework model is here to stay.I believe startups will be paying for networking in these offices and flexibility is enticing for both startups, but also for mature companies that want to have offices in different locations or want ties to the startup culture. The business model requires a lot of cash and probably needs a whole lot of equity to survive a downturn, but I think it makes sense and probably will be imitated with some variations.

Bought some PYPL, and a first lot of CTVA. Bought some SPY puts at the close.

Ouch! Another guide down. I don’t own this crappola spin-off any more. Pre market trades around $9.5: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resideo-announces-selected-preliminary-third-212500494.html I am not as familiar with REZI, but my conclusion on GTX was that it is a solid, if somewhat cyclical, business weighed down by excessive debt and asbestos liabilities. GTX is interesting due to high margins, a flexible cost structure as well as high leverage (and capped asbestos liability that can be deferred in crisis ), but diesel is a major headwind and not sure they can make up for that with gas. Anyway, whenever I get tempted, I look at Linamar and figure it's cheaper, better in the long run and with a lot more optionality. I agree on GTX. My main concern is that GTX turbocharger business will go away entirely with electrification. A supplier like Linamar can replace lost business, but GTX cannot, and even if they could the margins of any new business would most likely be lower than what they currently earn. REZI issue is margin pressure - I think they are getting commoditized. I will keep it on my watch list, but I don’t think I am likely to touch it.

Ouch! Another guide down. I don’t own this crappola spin-off any more. Pre market trades around $9.5: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/resideo-announces-selected-preliminary-third-212500494.html

If I were employee, I would ask for tequila shots with every lay-off and restructuring. This was one thing that Neumann got right. Reminds me of this scene:

In what world can an enterprise tech CEO with no consumer goods experience transition to become the CEO of the one of the largest athletic shoe and apparel companies in the world? This can't be a positive sign for Nike. John Donahoe is a Meg Whitman type of CEO; full of consulting-based platitudes and not a lot of execution. I don’t care to much about NKE, maybe they want a techie CEO. NOW stock was down a lot because of general weakness in the SAAS group and the CEO transition heightened the concern that the CEO change portents bad results. I thought that the more likely explanation for NOW’s CEO is that he wants to do something completely different. I had NOW on my watchlist since Druckenmiller mentioned it in late 2018 at around $165 as a disruptor. It’s now even roughly at the same price in terms of price/sales relatively speaking, so I thought I dip my toe a bit into this. It’s one of the more moaty business in this space and might be a good value, if they keep growing and improve profitability. They are no slouch in terms of stock related comp, but are a bit better than WDAY.