Spekulatius

Donbas is not a given for Putin. If it comes to a point where the people there can vote on this, overseen by the UN, I think they would vote to remain in Ukraine. It all depends on how the next stage of the war turns out. Crimean likely remains Russian, no matter what.

@Viking Canada has a much higher population growth rate than the US. Canadas current growth rate is ~1.2%, US is basically static at +0.1%. This is mostly because Canada has kept immigration going while the US under Trump throttled it (which remained that way under Biden) and US birth rate have absolutely dropped. There does not seem to be pent up demand for babies either in the US because so far, the Birth rate remains stubbornly low in 2022. Anyways, these demographic trends don't have as much impact than people think , imo.

@wabuffo I would agree with your but on inflation receding, but the Ukraine war is inflationary too and we have not really seen the effects of this moving through the "snake" yet. As for housing demand, I believe there is always a lot of housing demand, it more a matter if people can pay for it. Housing space demand is highly elastic because people can live in 1000 SQFT or 2000 SQFT and it's more a matter what they can afford or not (especially in the US). That said, I do think the US economy overall will remain in good shape - I just don't think housing will be as strong as many here believe, because high prices and high interest rates will take their toll. Europe is in a much tougher spot because energy prices are absolutely exploding there.

Why wouldn't it be? If you can buy a productive asset (like a property) and finance it with a negative real interest rates, how can this not be bullish/ Some for any company trying to borrow. The non-bullish part is that this punch bowl is apparently being taken away right now. That will be the end of the housing boom, imo.

I think the new Fang is going to make hardware, or at least there is a huge hardware component to what they do. AI, driverless car or augmented reality would be my guesses. Perhaps it's all three in one application or framework.

I like the (almost daily) reports from Michael Clark) on Sky news. Very concise and clear: Russia is going to move their focus to the South East and try a breakthrough. I think before this either succeeds or fails, all negotiations are moot, nothing will happen.

This also sent a signal to those that work with him and are involved in the war crimes as well. We do not know the exact inner workings, but each crime has more than person involved. I think starting this is the right thing to do, but there are going to be way more people implicated than just Putin. As for the War crimes Bucha, one should keep in mind that this is probably not just Putin's work. To me, it looks very much like the army of 2022 looks like the Russian army of WW2. The Russian army of WW2 did their fair share of raping, plundering and and random killing of civilians back then (my maternal family was on the receiving end of it in Berlin 1945). Probably more understandable given the circumstances back then, but again remember the army was told they are going on a de-nazification campaign in Ukraine. So what we are seeing here is a pattern of the Russian army that precedes Putin.

A company is a network of people essentially.

As long as you only drive on straight roads.

Sanctions are not about feeling good or moral high ground. They need to be designed to hurt on the receiving end, and not undermine the own economy, which would be very detrimental for Europe. For example, German defense minister Lambrecht asked for a boycott on Oil, NG and coal deliveries. Worrying about energy supplies isn't her job however. Instead she should ask herself what she can do within the defense department she is leading to help out Ukraine. Based on what I am hearing and reading, she has some work do do. if anything, this bucha massacre should make getting weapons to ukraine easier.

@Ross812 I tried this recipe out today and it came out quite well. I used TJ‘s low calorie lemonade and just straight up Cointreau instead of Marnier and some leftover of Jose Cuervo Especial Tequila instead of the Costco Tequilla. Much better than sugary stuff you get in most restaurants for sure. Thanks for posting - this is the content we all come here for.

I have seen the news but don’t see the NG ban happening. It’s just asking for too much too quickly. Longer term, the absence of relatively cheap NG will have a lasting impact on some industries, especially, the basic chemical industry like BASF, which needs cheap NG and power for competitiveness. The German defense minister Lambrecht should ask herself what she can do to help out Ukraine. Ukraine has asked for some weapon that Germany should be able to supply, but so far the aid has been limited l unlike the UK for example, which has provided extensive help. If we want to help the Ukraine to win their territory back, we need to supply them with weapons that are not just defensive, but allow them to gain more control over the air (advanced air defense systems), perhaps cruise missiles to deter ships and the launch pads of the russian cruise missiles and the airplanes they have been asking for.

NG is approximately used for 1/3 of the power generation in Germany. The largest chunk is used for heating and then industrial (especially chemical industry). Nuclear power alone can’t really make up for the Russian gas. Besides, restarting decommissioned nuclear plants isn’t exactly straightforward either. I guess they can continue to run the few existing g plants longer, but that’s only about 10% of the total generation.

I read on NTV that the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania )have stopped importing Russian gas. I still think that Europe as a whole is too depend now to shut down Russian gas but supposedly, by the end of this year, the volumes can be significantly reduced. My guess is the genocidal nature of the Russian invasion will make it much easier to get heavier weapons like Airplanes etc to Ukraine.

@no_free_lunch I think the sanction are working, but it takes time to kick in. The oil is hard to sanction, but the European can and will reduce depends from NG. It just takes time and doing this all at once would hurt the Europeans just as much than the Russian, so it’s not a good tradeoff. The technology part of the sanction is working and there have been news here and there that military complex is starting to hurt. Their airplanes, helicopters tanks all function with western parts and electronics and at some their areas running out. It’s probably already happening because supply chains tend to have parts for maybe 1-2 month but once they are gone, they have are done until they can replace them perhaps with some chines stuff, but that’s not always plug and play, if they even can get it. I think in a few month, the Sowjet economy will be short so many things that even the military complex will stop functioning. Maybe not quick enough to stop this war but for sure will prevent them from a redo.

I expect a regrouping and a new attack, presumably in the east. As for regime change, I don't think that's something one can bet on and it's quite unlikely.

You could well be right. Ukraine and Russia are both fighting a propaganda war, but Ukraine is much better at it. You would think that they at least have decent rifles. I have seen some videos from the Russian side, showing house to house search in Mariopolis mostly. A lot of those are Chechen and they don’t look that impressive either, but they do have decent weaponry. Russia has definitely fielded a lot of conscripts and Putin calling up 135k more in a hurry shows this as well. I don’t think that part is propaganda.

Happy April 1st fools day, Vladimir!

It’s 3/31 so I have to say it. Great quarter Z-guys:

I also wonder if we could end this war in one hour if we gave the Ukraine a few dozen of tactical and ballistic nukes. Edit: I am surprised Bill Ackman hasn't floated this idea

Without nukes, we would have a parade of Bradley's and Abrahams tanks on the Red Square by now. It's just a 10h drive from Latvia or Estonia to Moscow and there wouldn't be much to stop them, since they are busy beating up their neighbor in the south.

Reducing BAH in my IRA. Edit: Also ABEV and V.

Will be interested to see who flinches. Germany insists on paying for NG from Russia in Euro's or USD (as is written in the contract), Putin wants payment in Rubbles, via a trust account at a Russian bank: First Litmus test is tomorrow.

Holy crap. I feel sorry for these guys. There were rumors that some conscripts got Nagant bolt action rifles (WW2 standard edition). That may be almost true (the fellow in this clip shows a rather worn AK47). I also see news that Putin conscripted 135k new soldiers - more cannon fodder.

I like the frugal aspect of using Costco and TJ ingredients. I think I am going to try this recipe.