Spekulatius

Mr Market is just front running the rate rises from the Fed. The Fed rising by 0.5% while inflation is running at 9% still means borrowing money is cheaper than free. This applies even to the 5% mortgages. It's just less free than it was a few month ago. I agree the tech selloff is just looking for an excuse here - and it's the Fed. Now once a downtrend gets started it's just momentum and reflexivity at work.

Man up. This isn't a limit down day like March 2020 and you don't own $CVNA either.

Bought some MSGS today. I also purchased a starter in SMP (aftermarket parts) and added to LBRDA today and SWK earlier this week.

Declaration of war is necessary for Putin to declare mobilization which is the next escalation step for Putin. That means the "special operation" as it is called right now is over and a real war starts. Putin always doubles up on losing endeavors- that's something you can count on.

Who knows if this report from the NY Post is true; the NY Post isn't exactly the most reputable news source. However, rumors about Putin having cancer are not exactly new and he does not look at that healthy, so maybe there is something to it. Here is an earlier news article with some interesting factoids (or other rumors). https://news.yahoo.com/putin-visited-cancer-surgeon-dozens-112724988.html

On thing I am sure about - if you want to understand if a housing market is "healthy" forget days on market, price trends or what the realtors say. Just look at affordability - period. These charts are interesting from Yardeni, but they apply to the US, not Canada: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/houseafford.pdf Canada looks quite terrible: https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/housing-affordability-spiraling-to-worrisome-levels/?_ga=2.263179724.1526013155.1651603474-524993783.1651603474 It's all driven by interest rates at his point.

Logan Clay is simple as are many OTC stock annual reports, often because they lack important disclosure ($QUCT etc.). LAACZ had good disclosure and I found it in fact easy to value once I looked at their very brief annual report. I don't think it's easy to outperform with such a limited universe of investment opportunities, which brings us back to index investing.

@Xerxes $RTX is a fine business and will be around for a long time. However, it's a large cap with a lot of different business segments. The 10-K is 134 pages, which actually isn't too bad considering the size, but it's far from simple. Maybe we should reframe the question and ask for the stock with the shortest 10-K. Even a simple business like $FIZZ's annual report has 52 pages.

As for the GFC, my comparison is just alluding to the fact that the average homeowner during the GFC didn't really have a problem with their mortgage. Canada situation is different than the US during the GFC, but that does not mean that homeowners buying now in Canada are not stretched. Its the reset in interest rates that could become a problem in addition to the high prices. I would love to see an analysis that states how homeowners that bought the last few years in Canada will do if their mortgage payment doubles, which is possible if he trend in interest rates persists.

There were ~2.8M foreclosures in 2009 and there are 120M households in the US. The average homeowner did just fine during the GFC. What percentage of homeowners did default during the GFC from 2008-2010? Maybe 6%? The average is almost always fine, it's those on the margins that are the problem.

Yep. Crypto is supposed to be strong when central banks tighten and interest rates shoot up - save heaven and all...

So, that means the average homeowner will be fine. The average homeowner in the US was fine too in 2009. The problem is what is the mortgage for those homeowners in Canada that bought in the last 5 years and can they pay their mortgage if it resets to current interest rates or let's say 6% or 7%.

NEN isn't easy to figure out. A lot of value and debt is hiding in JV's so it takes quite a bit of work to calculate the proportionate share of income and debt. I doubt the average grandma could do it. Same with most other Reits. Any large cap has also various business segments, so same problem in terms of complexity I think the best bet is a microcap. Examples with fairly simple balance sheets and income statements are NUVR or LICT. They have very straightforward income statements and even more importantly only one business segments. Some smaller banks may work as well. A good example of a straightforward and well managed bank is FMCB. In this case, I think you can figure it out as long as you have a basic understanding on how a bank works and makes money. https://www.fmbonline.com/_/kcms-doc/171/69882/MSR8816_2021EarningsRelease_1312022.pdf

So sad if true, should sent some sunflowers to Putin ASAP: https://nypost.com/2022/05/02/vladimir-putin-to-undergo-cancer-surgery-transfer-power/

Inflation is tricky for insurers. Geico almost went bust due to inflation and bad underwriting in the 70's. The hard market could become a suckers market if the inflation keeps up and insurers underwrite risk where the LT liabilities inflate going forward. I bet Warren remembers this all too well. The rest of the insurers exec probably not so much or take a gamble on inflation normalizing anyways.

China will have to follow US interest rates or abandon the currency PEG. They could well see a real estate crash, imo.

Flipped most of my FB into GOOGL. Added to CMCSA and a bit of DOCN.

@SharperDingaan One thing I am certain of: If enough people default on something, recourse loans become non-recourse. It's just populism. I think Canadian mortgages will be an interesting new way to see this play out.

I think Elon has other loans outstanding to fund his Boring company as well as Space X. Elon is reckless as far as money is concerned and he takes risk that nobody else in his situation would.

@DooDiligence if you have Hulu, they have a very recent documentary aptly named "Zappa". It's narrated by his son. It's pretty enjoyable, also I never got "Zappa". I fully remember that you had to "get" Zappa to be part of the "Intelligentsia" in our gymnasium/high school in the late seventies- early eighties.

You also get a K-1.

I bought ADR's in the US. Specifically UELKY. I am not invested currently.

Will be an interesting time when Fomo disappears (as far as real estate is concerned) in Canada, it’s not a question if, it’s a question when. Canada is different than the US that mortgage debt is recourse and interest rates only fixed for 5 years (similar to commercial mortgages in the US).

Supposedly, Elon could pledge part of his stake in Space X as collateral, if Tesla shares really dive.