Spekulatius

I think the insurance brokers were cheap when Spitzer was investigating them for these contingent fees. O don’t think they were 1*or 2* rated. I didn’t buy them because I didn’t understand the business model. There was concern that the absence of these fees would break the business model. I don’t think the brokers were really cheap since that episode about 10+ years ago, with the exception of a short period in 2015/16 (the mini recession) back then probably. Even great business get cheap once in a while, but it could be a once or twice decade event. Lot’s of patience required to acquire a position and then you need to sit on it, which is is even harder.

Bought a bit of $HOPE today, the US-Korean focused bank brought up by @dealraker. I suppose it's down due to the CFO leaving. Paying about tangible book is a good bet here and it pays a decent dividend as well.

What is Putin’s snickers bar? https://www.wsj.com/articles/playing-risk-made-cold-war-kids-masters-of-an-unruly-globe-11673015444?mod=trending_now_news_4

Read the disclosures in the 10-Q or 10-K for same store revenues. You will be surprised. They do supply these details. I haven’t checked Realty Income recently but have checked on other NNN Reits and they typically are in they 2-3% range. Rent increases may have an inflation clause but they are capped. NNN is about the worst asset class you can own as Reit in times of high inflation. They are really much more a bond than real estate.

I bought my first house in 2002. The mortgage rate was 6.75 percent with BofA in spring 2002. So mortgage rate like we currently have currently certainly have are not exactly a new experience, thry were around exactly 20 years ago. I do think that once the Fed stops raising, mortgage rates will come down, because the margins that banks or mortgage lenders need will come down. That’s due to the convexity nature of MBS in a rapid rate rising cycle, I think. I do think the Fed already signaled that they won’t cut in 2023, but they may be about to be done rising for now. Maybe another 0.25% rise and we could be done.

The tripple net landlords will get destroyed when higher inflation persists. Their rent escalation is typically 2% annually which means you are buying a bond more so than real estate.

I bought some CPT (sunbelt MF) and ESS (West coast MF). I think Multifamily Reits have outperformed the SPY over the long run, but not lately (last few years). Lower interest rates have to do with it (not lately though) but I think pricing power and lack of terminal value risk and relative stability of rents are factors that make this a good asset class. Best asset class in Reits may be trailer park Reits like ELS and SUI but both still trade at pretty rich multiples.

The reason for the run doesn’t matter. They hold a bunch of securities , some HTM and some MTM that are have a fair value below the price they are held on thr balance sheet. If there is a run in the bank, they need to sell the securities and realize the losses and this will deplete their capital. I think SI is probably done here, I don’t think they will survive this. They also have liabilities from money laundering etc charges that are unknown and likely one of the causes of the run on the bank. FWIW, all these banks associated with crypto that have taken deposits have huge problems. Thats where regulators need to look to make sure that crypto does not impact the banking system. These banks like SI are on-ramps to crypto ecosystem and with crypto deflating there is ann impact on those FDIC insured banks.

Belgian beer St Bernardus :

Openinsider.com: http://www.openinsider.com

“The Recruit” is definitely satire. think, “The Office” but with CIA instead of Dundee Mifflin paper company. It’s not the greatest show, but fairly entertaining.p for what it is.

Bought a bit on Onex from BX sales proceeds. Need to do some more research on that one. Also did the @thepupil trade with a starter in both ESS and CPT multi family Reits. Small add to GOOGL for good measure as well.

I liked "Where the Crawdads sing" against the odds: Streams on Netflix.

@Xerxes You have a very different view of history in general than I do. Way back then, when I had history in school, our teacher presented two different views of history. There is the one view that history centers around “great leaders” as anchor points. That’s the history written by Alexander the Great, Charlemagne, Caesar, Churchill, Hitler, Napoleon. This is typically the history that was taught hundred of years ago. Then there is the school that believes that great leaders don’t really matter all that much and that history works sort of like a mechanical clock that moves in somewhat predictable ways driven by long term forces. The leaders only matter is over as they crystallize these forces and often accelerate their deployment. This is the history taught by Karl Marx and also Mearsheimer fall into this school of thought. I don’t think any of these views are correct and history is just what people do and reflects the choices they make. There is free will and there are forces driving nations in certain direction for a long time. that’s why Britain is different than Germany and China is different than the US. But nothing is inevitable and sometimes great leaders break or redirect the longer term forces and sometimes the long term forces break the great leaders.

I recommend checking out the documentary “Winter on Fire” about the Euromaiden revolution on Netflix. It also provides background and it is clear that the war in Ukraune started in February 2014 not 2022, it just went cold for a while. Before Viktor Yanukovych was ousted , Ukraine was on its way to become a Russian vassals state like Belarus by means of a treaty with Putin that pivoted Ukraine away from its path to the EU toward Russia. When people revolted and ousted Yanukovych, Putin took military action and invaded the Crimea and also started a proxy war in Donbas that never really ended. Now in 2022, Putin came to finish the jobs he started in 2014 but what while the West and the US did nothing in 2014, to Putins surprise the Western response was unified and impactful and that’s got us and Ukraine where we are right now. Based on my read of the story line of history and and Putin, this will not end with Ukraine becoming neutral or anything of this sort, because Putin knows that the people in Ukraine tilt toward the west and sooner or later any Russian friendly regime might fall. So in my opinion, the only way to end this is to help Ukraine to become part of Europe in the end and likely part of NATO or associated with it. Anything else will just make the conflict a temporary cold one and Putin will strike again at an opportune time for him to get what he thinks belongs to Russia. I have no idea if another Russian leader would look at this the same way. Possibly any Russian leader would, be skeptical towards the west, but I don’t think about anyone would start a war - that’s a choice not and inevitable thing.

Looks like I am down about 6%. Winners were buyout candidates (CSVI, SWMA, KNBE) and losers mostly tech and VNT and some small caps.

I did a Google search for this title and incidentally found an article from a Georgian author with the same title. Seems very prescient what this author predicted in 2019. https://neweasterneurope.eu/2019/08/26/all-is-not-quiet-on-the-eastern-front/ The more I think about this, the more it is clear that this attack on Ukraine is part of Putins long term plan.

My guess is that living spaces are going to be smaller (which makes sense because families are getting smaller) and we trend from single family detached homes to multi family condo units.

Work life balance has been a thing since the ancient Egypts apparently. https://mymodernmet.com/ancient-egyptians-attendance-record/?fbclid=IwAR1Yk1sHUC2EEGBMP2gyjqUAdYceQwwKumNoZtjMz_qRIip1_1X6QlfeLJI The Ancient Egyptians kept track of work absences, and the reasons range from embalming relatives to brewing beer.

A lot of ARM’s from 2003-2006 had teaser rates that would reset two years later. The plan was to refinance, which of course was only possible as long as home prices were rising. I don’t see GFC 2.0 happening this time. I do think we are looking at a garden variety recession type of situation. I am not sure that the logjam that @ValueArb is talking about will break anytime soon. I think people with low cost mortgage will just stay put for a long time generally unless something forces their hand. So transaction volume may go way down, but prices not so much.

we will see. maybe they are right and Russia closes the border to stop the bleeding. As for mobilization, if Russia indeed mobilized 300,000 troops, then this cannon folder will last about a year, if estimates of the Russian losses are correct. These losses have been able to plug some holes, but they haven’t been able to do anything offensive with this manpower. So I would expect an annual mobilization drive of about 300k troops to resupply the meat grinder. There are supposedly 40k conscripts alone in the Bakmuth area and if you want to see grizzly footage on how they are doing there , there plenty of it.

Not only that, I think there has been a lot of tax loss selling too. At least it feel that way watch in the “tape”. So his prediction is likely based on a false hypothesis as well.

Unless we get positive rates after taking into account inflation, debt service costs in inflation adjusted dollars is negative and debt is not a problem.

The ebook can be bought again for $1.99, if so inclined: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0083DJWGO?tag=slickdeals&ascsubtag=0035a936892211edaec84a71662b62f70INT

Interesting thread about demographic trends: 1) migration to south (Mainly Florida and Texas) Florida needs migration, they have more death than birth The US has worsening demographics , less birth and more death since COVID-19. Roughly 600k more death annually since 2020.