Spekulatius

As for the GFC, my comparison is just alluding to the fact that the average homeowner during the GFC didn't really have a problem with their mortgage. Canada situation is different than the US during the GFC, but that does not mean that homeowners buying now in Canada are not stretched. Its the reset in interest rates that could become a problem in addition to the high prices. I would love to see an analysis that states how homeowners that bought the last few years in Canada will do if their mortgage payment doubles, which is possible if he trend in interest rates persists.

There were ~2.8M foreclosures in 2009 and there are 120M households in the US. The average homeowner did just fine during the GFC. What percentage of homeowners did default during the GFC from 2008-2010? Maybe 6%? The average is almost always fine, it's those on the margins that are the problem.

Yep. Crypto is supposed to be strong when central banks tighten and interest rates shoot up - save heaven and all...

So, that means the average homeowner will be fine. The average homeowner in the US was fine too in 2009. The problem is what is the mortgage for those homeowners in Canada that bought in the last 5 years and can they pay their mortgage if it resets to current interest rates or let's say 6% or 7%.

NEN isn't easy to figure out. A lot of value and debt is hiding in JV's so it takes quite a bit of work to calculate the proportionate share of income and debt. I doubt the average grandma could do it. Same with most other Reits. Any large cap has also various business segments, so same problem in terms of complexity I think the best bet is a microcap. Examples with fairly simple balance sheets and income statements are NUVR or LICT. They have very straightforward income statements and even more importantly only one business segments. Some smaller banks may work as well. A good example of a straightforward and well managed bank is FMCB. In this case, I think you can figure it out as long as you have a basic understanding on how a bank works and makes money. https://www.fmbonline.com/_/kcms-doc/171/69882/MSR8816_2021EarningsRelease_1312022.pdf

So sad if true, should sent some sunflowers to Putin ASAP: https://nypost.com/2022/05/02/vladimir-putin-to-undergo-cancer-surgery-transfer-power/

Inflation is tricky for insurers. Geico almost went bust due to inflation and bad underwriting in the 70's. The hard market could become a suckers market if the inflation keeps up and insurers underwrite risk where the LT liabilities inflate going forward. I bet Warren remembers this all too well. The rest of the insurers exec probably not so much or take a gamble on inflation normalizing anyways.

China will have to follow US interest rates or abandon the currency PEG. They could well see a real estate crash, imo.

Flipped most of my FB into GOOGL. Added to CMCSA and a bit of DOCN.

@SharperDingaan One thing I am certain of: If enough people default on something, recourse loans become non-recourse. It's just populism. I think Canadian mortgages will be an interesting new way to see this play out.

I think Elon has other loans outstanding to fund his Boring company as well as Space X. Elon is reckless as far as money is concerned and he takes risk that nobody else in his situation would.

@DooDiligence if you have Hulu, they have a very recent documentary aptly named "Zappa". It's narrated by his son. It's pretty enjoyable, also I never got "Zappa". I fully remember that you had to "get" Zappa to be part of the "Intelligentsia" in our gymnasium/high school in the late seventies- early eighties.

You also get a K-1.

I bought ADR's in the US. Specifically UELKY. I am not invested currently.

Will be an interesting time when Fomo disappears (as far as real estate is concerned) in Canada, it’s not a question if, it’s a question when. Canada is different than the US that mortgage debt is recourse and interest rates only fixed for 5 years (similar to commercial mortgages in the US).

Supposedly, Elon could pledge part of his stake in Space X as collateral, if Tesla shares really dive.

FWIW, i was a buyer of COST around $315. There is no difference between tech stocks having rich multiples and consumer goods stocks having rich multiples - eventually the multiples likely will mean revert. For tech stocks, this has happened, but I think there were monkey flows into safe heaven consumer food stocks inflating their multiples, Stocks with inflated multiples are never save, eve. I’d fundamentals are good.

Yep, like backstopping Turkish lira bank deposits & savings against losses relative to hard currencies. Since he did so, the Turkish lira has cratered again. I suspect it was just a play to calm markets and stem outflows but I think the market is slowly calling the bluff. I suspect that Turkey never could make good on this backstop if the currency really depreciates. Won’t be fun to be in Turkish equities if this house of cards collapses, I think. Its s shame because there are some real hard charging entrepreneurs there. I went to Turkey on a business trip (shortly after the Istanbul airport terror attackers) for a customer installation a few years ago and was quite impressed. So there is some real potential there, but there is also a deep chasm between the secular Turks and deep religious Muslims that are mostly living peacefully next to each other. You just wonder if this is going to last. I sure hope so, but I would not bet a lot of my money on it.

There is a serious bubble going on in stocks that are perceived to be safe in the current environment. Examples: COST, KO, WM etc.

If you fight a war, the enemy will attack your with all means available to them, it's that simple. ISIS and Iraq did so certainly. As far as who is the best, the simplest test is where people want to live. Most will chose the west given a choice. Immigration patterns also make this clear - there are simply almost no people who would immigrate to Russia. On similar note, there are not many states that will ally with Russia, unless they are just as autocratic than they are. Putin may complain about NATO expansion all he wants, but the fact is that that NATO has an open door policy fundamentally and nobody forces any country to join. Then Russian neighbor states are given the "choice" by Putin to either become a puppet state or getting totally destroyed.

Adds to Linamar LNR.TO, CRM, PYPL, DPW.DE / DPSGY. Tiny starter in SHOP and DOCN in one account. Edit: Also bought just a tiny bit of GOOGL AH.

I have dabbled a bit in Turkey (got slaughtered) and fail to see how you can make money here, given the interest rate and currency issues. The key interest rate is 14% and it is probably too low given the current rate of inflation there. Might as well forget about Turkish stocks and just speculate on the Turkish Lira. There are some good companies in Turkey but I fail to see how this is investible.

Ukraine war is not great for Russias weapon manufacturers: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-militarys-next-front-line-replacing-battlefield-equipment-destroyed-in-ukraine-11650879002?mod=hp_lead_pos9

I don’t think China’s zero COVID-19 policy matters much, unless you invest in China. It’s doomed to fail and at some point the Chinese will probably abandon it. I think one reason the Chinese are doing it is because they know, but not admit, that their vaccines don’t work.