Spekulatius

Could well be, but I am asking myself that even if true, does it matter? Deepseek shows that you can create their own LLM that runs efficiently build upon another LLM that is freely available. So it seems that you need less NVDA chips and datacenters either way and also that any nation even target of export controls can do so. Also, the allegation that they trained on ChatGPT isn’t proven. And yes, they can likely raise billions.

There is no such thing for pretty much any service. Nobody pays the same price for a car service, to get their lawned mowed, their toilet repaired and so forth. I do agree the pricing variances in Health care are extreme.

That’s a very tricky sector to make money in. Why not get your contrarian itch buy buying something that has a good LT record of value creation and trades at lower than historical multiples. Stocks like ELV, REGN, HSY or MDLZ come to my mind if you restrict yourself to US stocks. I stead of energy, I would get myself acquainted with growth sectors like software, semiconductors, tech (in general) or even industrial or infrastructure that LT likely lead to better returns than trying to pick a bottom with energy stocks that mostly go on cycles.

I think so, with investing it’s chasing what other people do, FOMO ( am psychological fallacy). I think you have to have a system or framework. Even if it’s just invest in index funds or doing 60/40.

Since when is going long consensus that everyone agrees upon making money when investing?

I posted this in the joke thread, be sure hre presents his content in a funny and cynical way, but the more I think about, the more I view this as really good advice. There are many more episodes in his channel that are worth watching, not all of them relationship related. this fellow is a hoot and a smart one at that:

This channel showed up in my YouTube feed and is hilarious and his advice isn’t pretty good , imo:

@vinod1 I disagree. Take Visa and Mastercard for example. Why do Visa and Mastercard exist and why are they US companies? The biggest reason is that the US has substantial control over the financial (by means of the US $ , but also the payment systems, interbank transfer etc). So while they may not benefit much from all that extra spending, they owe the very existence to the might of the US dollar and the control of the international financial system. The US share of the total global GDP is ~26% but the US equity market cap is almost 60% if the global equity market cap. why do you think this is case? All due to better managements? I’t part of the equation but can’t explain all of it. anyways, the net result is that market valuations are much higher, which leads to lower cost of capital which allows to higher investments and faster growth. It’s a nice flywheel and we better hope it keeps spinning. By the way, an Oligarchy is not good for economic growth long term. In a crisis, they often fall to pieces.

Looks like Deepseek needs roughly 1/10 of the resources while yielding similar results. This means we need 1/10 of the chips, 1/10 of the datacenters, 1/10 of the power. C ’mon, we outsource all that stuff from China, since they are so good at it and save another 50%!. It’s not like this has never been done before.

I very much agree. Any other country that tries to run similar high MMT like deficits gets punished by capital markets severely (Brazil, France, UK) and has to revert to austerity. The US can do this because of the twin factors of reserve currency status and the largest most liquid capital markets (which are tied to each other so you could say it’s really one factor). Another thing worth watching is this one:

It probably a good idea to stock up on foreign whiskeys, tequila, wines etc now before the Trump tariffs are coming. I went to a Total wine store to get some Californian wines initially but there was a fellow fici Count free tastes of mostly French red ( Cabernet , Pinot noir) and he let me test them against Californian one as well. The French won that one and were cheaper as well. Might all cost 25% more next more next month so get it while you can.

How would you even model real estate defaults? So many idiosyncratic factors go into the default rate. I think the Japanese banks have huge NIM upside of the BofJapan raises interest rates which slowly seems to be happening. Of course you have to look at the maturity of their existing loans and bonds which I have no idea how to do.

I would pick a spot between Malaga and Marbella for vacation. Best to go is probably early fall when the water will be warm like a bathtub. It has been along time, but ai fondly remember Fuengirola and the bodegas around there. The villages in the mountains are also great, if you got enough of the beaches.

Solid report from FMCB: https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FMCB/news/Farmers--Merchants-Bancorp-FMCBReports-Record-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Financial-Results?id=465416 Some leadership changes were announced the last few weeks. Something to keep an eye on.

If they are smart they developed a digital blockchain based USD or treasuries with functionally like the ability taxes, earn interest. Why hop on Bitcoin train if you can issue your own? If they put it on the blockchain, so it becomes untraceable (or all sort, similar to Bitcoin) than I think a lot of countries or individual want to own it. There a risk of money laundering etc, but if you have that with Bitcoin as well so might as well do this as a blockchain based digital USD which strengthens the status of the USD as reserve currently.