Spekulatius

I think the Trump put is not something to bet on this time. I think Trump had bigger plans than during his first administration. Think Neo imperialism - expanding the US borders and make Greenland and US territory, Get Panama Canal back and his bust on Mt Rushmore etc. Maybe even pry a wedge into Canada (Alberta). Peace Nobel price for making “peace” in Ukraine and The Gaza Strip becomes a Las Vegas clone. I feel there is “grander” vision going on here and it’s probably not stuff people voted for. The tariff are just a form of economic warfare and fits in the Neo imperialist framework. I think the equity markets taking a dump here is something that he cares way less about than during his first term. So, I think we might be in for quite some action on the downside when market participants figure out that Trump doesn’t give a damn if the market shits a brick. Bessent pretty much spelled it out that the next 6-12 month won’t be great.

It is still noteworthy what AJG paid because just ~1.5 years ago, they mentioned they plan to pay 10-11x EBITDA for acquisitions. So there is valuation creep going on. Maybe they meant small bolt ons, because larger acquisitions for sure aren’t available at these 10-11 x multiples.

Reduced $DHLGY and sold a bit more $BTI

Yeap his goals are to get a spot on Mt Rushmore ( for expanding America by annexing Greenland) and the Peace Nobel price for bringing “peace” to Gaza and Ukraine.

At least Europe moving in the right direction, the direction that the US is taking under Trump is downward scary. I think for equity markets it means that the US valuation premium will diminish. The US markets still has the best business but that only explains part of the valuation difference. There is a clear premium for US stocks right now compared to likewise foreign stocks (as is evident when business relist in the US) and this premium will be smaller going forward, imo.

I also bought GOOGL recently and PAX. PAX should go bonkers is SA does a bit better but it’s cheap enough for some shares anyways.

Trudeau is actually doing better in the polls now. Nothing better for popularity of a politician than dealing with an external threat.

He is trying everything to get something from the US to help fight the Russians. If it turns out that it’s not working he will have to work with the European only. It is probably a waste of time to make deals with Trump but he has to try. That’s how I see it.

Well that’s does not exactly sounds like it will save money either. Would be interesting to know how much each person brings in versus what they cost. DOGE shouldn’t have this number and if they don’t how do they decide to fire them?

You don’t well these issues combing databases , especially if you don’t understand how they are operated which the DOGE team clearly does not. Got to get boots on the ground but that is not what has been happening . I also wonder what’s is up with all those IRS firings during tax season.

Employing veterans is a DEI program too isn’t it? $CACI and $HII are having a good day

Well @Luke said this can’t be done and he lives there.

The Mag7 is a bit tied to US being a dominant force in politics. Same with US banks and the USD. In any case, trading economic influence with Russia for influence in Europe looks like a bad trade to me.

Seriously, the 25% US tariffs are a more significant regulation than anything the EU came ever up with. Then we have DOGE austerity and dismantling of state agencies which remains to be seen what impact it will have. Doesn’t exactly sound like the US stock market deserves a huge safe heaven premium to me. It all boils down to earnings growth in the end.

DAX up ~3.5% today and the rest of Europe doesn’t look to bad either. Also @Dalal.Holdings went hiding . I don’t know if Europe is investable but the stocks make money while the US markets are a shitshow. Go figure.