Hoodlum

I noticed that Foran Mining stock is up about 25% in Q4 from $3.89 to current $4.87 Cdn per share. According to latest share count from Foran Mining after their last stock issuance, Fairfax owns 121.8M shares with a value of $593M CDN ($430M US) that is showing a gain of $120M CDN ($87.5M US) in Q4 ($4.20US/share). This is starting to become a sizable investment and one to watch in 2026, especially if copper prices start to increase. https://foranmining.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2025-FOM-Mgmt-Information-Circular.pdf Fairfax, who is an “insider” of the Company subscribed for 25,000,000 Offered Shares. Prior to the closing of the First Tranche, Fairfax held 69,088,486 Common Shares representing approximately 17.5% of the then issued and outstanding Common Shares. Following the closing of the First Tranche and as of May 30, 2025, Fairfax holds 90,196,252 Common Shares, representing approximately 18.3% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares prior to completing the Second Tranche. Following closing of the Second Tranche, Fairfax will hold 94,088,486 Common Shares, representing approximately 18.4% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares after giving effect to the Private Placement. Together with Fairfax’s 27,777,778 Non-voting Shares, this would represent 22.6% of the issued and outstanding Shares, after giving effect to the Private Placement.

the latest jump on this ticker in the US doesn’t seem to correlate with the Greek stock exchange where it has a 12.8B Euro market cap. Is there any reason why the US ticker got out of sync recently.

Altius Minerals has acquired Lithium Royalty Corp (LIRC) for $520M ($173M Cash and $347M Altius Shares). Lithum pricing has bottomed out over the past 2 years and this looks like an opportunistic time to acquire this royalty. https://altiusminerals.com/investor-information/press-releases/altius-announces-definitive-agreement-to-acquire-lithium-royalty-corp

Eurobank has restarted their share buybacks after the completion of some Cyprus Bank acquisition related transactions. https://www.eurobank.gr/en/group/grafeio-tupou/etairiki-anakoinosi-22-12-2025

I didn’t realize there were different share types.

That is my understanding.

I guess Prem and Sixty Two have to report as key stakeholders in Fairfax.

They are showing the breakdown at different levels of the corporate structure, including how much is owned by each insurance sub. All of the investments at Fairfax work this way as the insurance companies (not the Fairfax holding company) own the investments.

Fairfax has reported a 9% ownership of Under Armour (UAA) https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000094787125001086/xslSCHEDULE_13G_X01/primary_doc.xml

I was able to confirm that the large trade done through CBOE on 11/11 was also through Scotia, similar to the 100k CBOE Scotia trade from Tuesday. The 11/11 trade was also split in two (2 x 109,645 shares), similar to the 2 x 50k share trade from Tuesday. It seems like only the large block Scotia buybacks are done through CBOE, with the smaller buybacks done through TSX. We will find out in January but it looks like Fairfax bought back 100k shares on Tuesday.

I noticed that this 100k trade was done through CBOE exchange instead of the TSX. I also noticed a similar large trade on 11/11 for 227k shares at CBOE, but I cannot confirm that trade was also Scotia as I have hit my daily limit at Stockwatch for my free account LOL. But the 11/11 trade for 227k shares would seem to line up with the 274k November buybacks that @SafetyinNumbers previously reported.

Seeing a Scotia trade after the open for 4,700 shares @ $2500. We will find out later what Fairfax was buying during this period. Edit: Just noticed that we had two 50k cross trades by Scotia yesterday for $2475 at 2:47pm (Market Z). I had missed this originally.

Moody's upgraded Eurobank and their debt to Positive, which suggests an upgrade will be coming in 2026. https://fastforward.com.cy/business/moodys-upgrades-outlook-bank-cyprus-eurobank Moody’s Ratings reaffirmed its confidence in the Cypriot banking sector, confirming all ratings for Bank of Cyprus and Eurobank Limited (Eurobank Cyprus / now also Hellenic Bank), while upgrading the outlook on their long-term deposits and senior unsecured debt from stable to positive. Moody’s decision is a strong indication of its recognition of the progress achieved in risk management and the strengthening of the financial fundamentals of the two systemic banks. The assessment of the banks was supported by the parallel upgrade of Cyprus’ macroeconomic profile to “Moderate+” from “Moderate”. Upgrade trigger: The successful and smooth completion of the integration, as well as clarity regarding new strategic and funding plans expected in 2026.

The host also stated that Fairfax had stopped their buybacks in 2025. I stopped listening at the 3/4 mark. I don’t believe they even discussed the turnaround of the insurance subs with the great contribution from Andy Barnard, unless I missed that.

Scotia bought 24.4K at the close today. So it looks like Fairfax is still buying.

I see that 67M shares traded at the close today (EUROB.AT). That is 8x daily avg volume or ~1.8% of outstanding shares. Would this be Fairfax selling? I don't know what the US$ ticker has to do with this.

S&P has assigned an A+ rating to Polish Re. I believe this is initial coverage by S&P. All of these upgrades to the insurance subs are going to help with underwriting going forward. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3489968

S&P also provided a debt rating for Recipe Unlimited in October. It provides some insight on its financials, that we normally don’t have visibility to. The Keg contributed $700M in annual sales. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3462613

S&P has upgraded Seaspan Corp to ‘BB’ based on improved profitability. There is a lot of good information in their review of Seaspan and definitely worth the read. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3494584

With any new FIH share issue, Fairfax would likely purchase 35-40% of the new shares to keep them close to their existing 43% ownership of FIH (~$2.5B). OMERS will want to do the same to at least continue owning 15%. I could see other Canadian Pension funds get involved. Then remaining new shares would be available to brokers. I suspect that Fairfax already has commitments from the pension funds which is why we are hearing of a cash only purchase of IDBI. I could see all of this getting done through FIH at a price much higher than the current FIH share price, as both Fairfax and OMERS want new shares issued at closer to current intrinsic value.

Even if there is no anchorage IPO, an IDBI purchase would likely involve FIH with additional shares being issued. With OMERS owning ~15% of FIH today and likely being involved with any new FIH share issue, they will want the shares issued at closer to current intrinsic value.

I came across this interesting analysis of how Kotak and Fairfax differ in their interest in IDBI. That difference could work in Fairfax’s favour. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ujwal-thakar-65b1951_fairfax-kotak-and-the-idbi-question-why-activity-7405482188441382912-Iy8K

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/fairfax-emerges-as-frontrunner-to-acquire-governmentlic-stake-in-idbi-bank/amp_articleshow/125919779.cms Toronto-based Fairfax Financial is leading the race to acquire a controlling stake in IDBI Bank from the Centre and Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) ahead of a December-end deadline for submission of financial bids for the lender, multiple people familiar with the matter told ET. Fairfax is competing with Kotak Mahindra Bank, the other significant contender in the fray, said the people cited above. Fairfax Financial, founded by Indian-Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa, is said to be considering an all-cash offer in line with IDBI Bank’s current market value, according to those in the know. This could make it a favourite in the bidding process. Kotak Mahindra Bank is said to be considering a bid in a combination of cash and shares, as per the people cited earlier. The submission of bids could spill over to early January. Emirates NBD which was also amongst those that had earlier submitted an expression of interest is re-assessing its participation in the final bidding round in light of its recently concluded agreement to buy a controlling stake in RBL Bank, as per people cited earlier.

all the other trades at the close were for 1k or less and were across all brokers with RBC having the most trades on both the buy and sell sides

I saw National Bank on both the buy and sell side. I don’t have a broker number. Trade was actually for 102.2k @ $2433.21. But there were over a 100 smaller trades at the close for the same price.