Hoodlum

The first large block trade of 119k at the close today.

They are almost certainly still buying back now. The share price today is the same as it was in August when they were buying back shares. That was 4 months ago when book value was lower and there was somewhat less certainty of Q3 earning heading into Hurricane season. I can see them continuing to buy back shares below $2500.

I believe the 107k may include up until the first 4 days in November, ahead of the Q3 release. So maybe a bit of an overlap with the 275k shares. But great none the less and adds to the 541k shares purchase up until the end of Q3. We could get close to 5% of outstanding shares bought back by year end.

Maybe if they have a larger number of long tenured employees. I have also seen in companies that there is never a consistent 20% reduction across a company as some areas could not sustain such a drop.

Fairfax is also doing buybacks at this price as they did buybacks as high at $2445 cdn during Q3 and the book value has since increased. Other than the 26k block on Monday, I am only seeing about average volume so far. You may be right about them waiting until Friday next week and this allows Fairfax to continue with their buybacks.

I wonder how this would impact employee moral as a 20% reduction of workforce in 3-4 years cannot be done through attrition and early retirement packages alone. This is not something you want to drag out for 3 years.

While your logic makes sense from mine and your perspective, there are funds that own a large amount of Fairfax share and may be willing to sell some shares at an agreed on price. Many funds in Canada do have a limit on how much they can allocate to one stock, so as Fairfax stock price has risen they will look to reduce the amount of shares they have. I am sure there are others on this board that can shed more light on this.

We had one 26k share block trade yesterday but I don't believe we have had any large index buys yet. I think everyone was caught off guard with this and they are now discussing with larger Fairfax holders to determine what price they are willing to sell at. It could take a few days before the volume picks up.

I see that Jumbo from Greece is coming to Canada with first 3 stores opening in 2026. I suspect that they will be taking over some of the ToysRUs leases. Jumbo bought a mall from Eurobank last month for 10M Euro. It would not surprise me if Prem helped to make this happen with Fairfax's involvement with Putman Investments and his connections in Greece. I don't believe there is any financial involvement from Fairfax for this Jumbo move into Canada. https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/business/greek-retail-giant-jumbo-heads-to-canada-with-first-ontario-stores-in-2026

Thanks for summarizing your thoughts @Phoenix01 Q4 results will likely also have a reserve release as this is when Fairfax does their releases. For 2023 this was $310M, while for 2024 it was $594M. These releases are now for the hard market period and I expect this to continue for the next 2-3 years due to the delay after which the reserves are released. It is difficult to predict what it would be, but we could conceivably have a gain from this of $10-$20+/share. The Allied minority share buyback seems like a great use of spare cash. I believe this would be purchased at ~$800M and based on the 2024 $176M earning from this minority interest, an obvious great use of capital. It would not surprise me if this is announced before year end.

Fairfax dropped 2.5% on Friday and it wasn’t long ago that FFH was at $2500. I could see us getting to $2500 again on Monday, which would be a 5% increase from Thursday’s close. This should bode well for a big TRS gain in Q4. No one would have been expecting this.

Here is a bit more on this acquisition. https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2025/12/sleep-country-ceo-plans-canadian-relaunch-of-bed-bath-beyond/ Additional details about the brand’s return will be shared prior to the grand opening scheduled for Q3 2026. Schaefer said the Canadian relaunch of Bed Bath & Beyond will be with a smaller store format, a refreshed product mix and an initial digital-first approach. The expansion into the U.K. aligns with Sleep Country’s acquisition of Simba, a bed-in-a-box brand Schaefer called “the largest and most well-known” in that market. He said the UK business also includes a “fabulous digital team.” Schaefer said the company’s goal is to bring Bed Bath & Beyond “back to its heyday” with a curated assortment focused primarily on bed and bath. “It won’t be as deep and wide as it was before,” he said, noting that the previous chain had neglected core categories. “They weren’t doing the mattresses, they weren’t doing their headboards, they were doing very little bed linens.” Sleep Country will incorporate its own brands — including Casper, Endy, Hush and Silk & Snow — into the revived chain. While kitchen products will be part of the assortment, Schaefer said the company plans to bring in specialists to develop that segment.

Those analysts who recently lowered their targets for Fairfax were certainly caught off guard.

I wasn’t expecting that now. I wonder what changed their mind from the past 12 months. Algonquin Power has gained 22% in the past 12 months, while Fairfax has gained only 14%. Yet Algonquin Power was removed and Fairfax added now. It almost seems like the the S&P want to wait a year before moving forward with a change.

Are you referring to the gain since the initial investments or the gain since end of Q3. My understanding is that Orla share are marked to market, so any gains up to the end of Q3 were already accounted for in earnings.

Fairfax has sold 25M share of ORLA @ $17.64/share, which is 8-9% below yesterday's closing price but just 5% below Wednesday's price. This is about 25% higher than what Newmont sold their 43M share for just ten weeks ago. Fairfax has not converted any debt or warrants to shares as of yet. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-sells-common-shares-of-orla-2025-12-05/ Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (“Fairfax”) (TSX: FFH and FFH.U) announced that it has sold, through its insurance company subsidiaries, 25,000,000 common shares (the “Common Shares”) of Orla Mining Ltd. (TSX: OLA) (“Orla”) at a price of CDN$17.6435 per Common Share for aggregate proceeds of approximately CDN$441.1 million (US$316.1 million) (the “Share Sale”). The Share Sale occurred in connection with the rebalancing of investment portfolios of Fairfax. Immediately prior to the Share Sale, Fairfax, through its insurance company subsidiaries, beneficially owned or controlled: (i) 56,817,229 Common Shares; (ii) US$150,000,000 principal amount of senior unsecured convertible notes (the “Notes”) of Orla, which are convertible into Common Shares at Fairfax’s option at a conversion price per Common Share of CDN$7.90; and (iii) 17,544,302 warrants (“Warrants”), which allow Fairfax to acquire up to 17,544,302 Common Shares at an exercise price of CDN$11.50 per Warrant, representing approximately 16.7% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares (on a non-diluted basis) and approximately 26.3% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares (on a partially-diluted basis, assuming conversion of the Notes and exercise of the Warrants). Following the Share Sale, Fairfax, through its subsidiaries, beneficially owns and controls: (i) 31,817,229 Common Shares; (ii) US$150,000,000 principal amount of Notes; and (iii) 17,544,302 Warrants, representing approximately 9.4% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares (on a non-diluted basis) and approximately 19.8% of the issued and outstanding Common Shares (on a partially-diluted basis, assuming conversion of the Notes and exercise of the Warrants).

I was not familiar with the MW Eats restaurants and found this article provided an interesting overview of the foods/experience that they provide. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lmowery/2025/12/04/is-london-the-top-city-in-the-world-for-this-cuisine-these-chefs-say-yes/

Sleep Country has purchased Bed Bath and Beyond name and logo rights for Canada and the UK. They plan on relaunching the retailer in 2026 with physical stores and online. I am not sure what they plan to do this time that would be any different from the previous owners. https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/business/sleep-country-canada-charting-revival-of-bed-bath-beyond-next-year/article_8c7a47b2-0f9a-5cc9-85a2-6d3072e59170.html

Maybe CIBC is thinking the Teck acquisition shareholders vote on Dec 9th would trigger this. But would the S&P do the index swap before the Canada government gives final approval for the Teck acquisition?

Wouldn’t that need to be announced on the 5th after markets close? That is the usual timing for TSX index changes. And who would be removed?

I found this company press release that suggests Preferred Shares are included in diluted shares outstanding. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230707581417/en/Beacon-Announces-Agreement-to-Repurchase-All-Outstanding-Series-A-Cumulative-Convertible-Participating-Preferred-Stock Series A Preferred Stock Repurchase The transaction is expected to provide substantial benefits to Beacon and its common stockholders, including: Reducing diluted share count on an as converted basis by 9.69 million shares; Providing immediate accretion to earnings per share;

thanks for posting his @Viking I was not expecting much of a gain in the equity portfolio during q4, with the gains we have already had this year. But it looks like we are on our way to notable gains here again. It wouldn’t surprise me if the current TRS and Metlen losses turn to gains by the end of the year. ORLA is also up another 9% over the past 2 days as Gold flew past $4200. ORLA may be the largest contributor to equity gains this quarter. While Foran Mining is not on your list, it almost reached an all time high today, with Fairfax owning 23%. McIlvenna Bay is expected to reach commercial production by mid-2026 with copper and zinc to be the main minerals, along with some gold/silver. I could see this equity provide some noticeable gains in 2026. The copper mining sector is trying to consolidate like we have seen with Teck, BHP and Anglo-American over the past few weeks. The industry seems to be preparing for when demand is expected to rise as copper is a key component for EVs.

I’ve noticed that FFH had block sales of between 30k-80k shares at market closes this week. I hope that was Fairfax buying.

Here are a few more details on this transaction. https://splash247.com/seaspan-poised-to-enter-ethane-carrier-business/ Shipbrokers say the Bing Chen-led owner has set sights on up to six 100,000 cu m VLECs at Jiangnan Shipyard, part of China State Shipbuilding Corp (CSSC). The project is understood to involve three firm ships and three options, with pricing around $149m per vessel. The ships are expected to be backed by a long-term charter to a major Chinese state oil company.

it seems small but Fairfax sees opportunity for global growth. https://www.thecaterer.com/news/veeraswamy-owner-mw-eat-sold-to-canadian-firm MW Eat saw pre-tax profits rise 31% to £4.4m in the year to 30 March 2025, while turnover was flat at £31.7m.