Hoodlum

My mistake. I had missed that from prior years. Also, the Preferred shares are not being redeemed yet. So, still waiting on that to get closed out.

I just noticed the following additional announcement at the end of this press release. Fairfax also announces that it has entered into an automatic share purchase plan (the “ASPP”) with a designated broker to allow for the purchase of its Subordinate Voting Shares and each series of its Preferred Shares under the NCIB at times when Fairfax normally would not be active in the market due to applicable regulatory restrictions or internal trading black-out periods. Before the commencement of any particular internal trading black-out period, Fairfax may, but is not required to, instruct its designated broker to make purchases of Subordinate Voting Shares and/or Preferred Shares under the NCIB during the ensuing black-out period in accordance with the terms of the ASPP. Such purchases will be determined by the broker in its sole discretion based on parameters established by Fairfax prior to commencement of the applicable black-out period in accordance with the terms of the ASPP and applicable TSX rules. Outside of these black-out periods, Subordinate Voting Shares and Preferred Shares will be purchasable by Fairfax at its discretion under its NCIB. The ASPP is effective as of September 30, 2025 and will terminate on the earliest of the date on which: (a) the maximum annual purchase limit in respect of the Subordinate Voting Shares and each series of Preferred Shares under the NCIB has been reached; (b) the NCIB expires; or (c) Fairfax terminates the ASPP in accordance with its terms. The ASPP constitutes an “automatic securities purchase plan” under applicable Canadian securities laws.

Fairfax is now taking out the Preferred Series I, J and K. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/intention-to-make-a-normal-course-issuer-bid-for-subordinate-voting-shares-and-preferred-shares-2025-09-26/

I guess this is how Seaspan planned to get around the US port fees. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/shippingwatch-com_seaspan-relocates-hq-to-singapore-and-reflags-activity-7376158212548632577-NkwB Seaspan Corporation moves its HQ from Hong Kong to Singapore to sidestep the upcoming US port fees, sources confirm to ShippingWatch. The shipowner, a top lessor of vessels to the container majors, will also move around 100 ships to the Singapore register, the sources say

I suspect there are many of these smaller minority buybacks that are happening in the background when the opportunity arises. I also see that the Fairfax rating increases continues to spread to other global insurance subs as well. As we heard from the Odyssey Re CEO, this will help at renewal time with better opportunities. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250919923093/en/AM-Best-Revises-Issuer-Credit-Rating-Outlook-to-Positive-for-Singapore-Reinsurance-Corporation-Limited AM Best has revised the outlook to positive from stable for the Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating (Long-Term ICR) and affirmed the Financial Strength Rating (FSR) of A (Excellent) and the Long-Term ICR of “a” (Excellent) of Singapore Reinsurance Corporation Limited (Singapore Re) (Singapore). The outlook of the FSR is stable. The Credit Ratings (ratings) reflect Singapore Re’s balance sheet strength, which AM Best assesses as strong, as well as its adequate operating performance, limited business profile and appropriate enterprise risk management. In addition, the ratings factor in rating enhancement from the company’s ultimate parent, Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (Fairfax) [TSX: FFH]. The rating enhancement from Fairfax factors in explicit and implicit support from the group, including access to shared resources and services across various business functions. Despite Singapore Re’s operations accounting for a small component of Fairfax’s consolidated revenue and earnings, the company is considered strategically important to the group’s international expansion strategy and provides access to local and regional business.

ORLA hit a new high today. Gold seems to have broken through its ceiling. I have no idea of how high the gold price could go.

Agnico Eagle sold their 11.2% interest in Orla Mining to investors at $10.70US on Tuesday. This should provide a floor for Orla's share price and helps to provide greater liquidity. This also provides confidence that Fairfax could easily sell their interest in Orla when the time comes. Gold set new highs above $3600US this week.

I am still buying in my RRSP when I have added funds. I am now done adding to the RRSP for this year but will reinvest the dividends in January unless the share price really takes off.

During an interview, Odyssey Re CEO Carl Overy commented on one of the benefits of the recent rating upgrades. https://www.theinsurer.com/ti/viewpoint/stronger-than-ever-odysseys-overy-on-the-journey-ahead-2025-09-06/

P&C insurance companies are included in the “risk weighing” review of corporate bonds. https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/from-the-regulators/osfi-launches-series-of-reform-consultations/ Finally, OSFI is also consulting on proposed changes to the capital rules for insurers — specifically, the minimum capital test that aims to ensure that property and casualty insurers have enough capital to cover potential losses.

it looks the increase and then decrease percentage ownership was related to the squeeze out of shares when they transitioned to the LSE. This was completed on 8/29. https://www.metlengroup.com/news/trading-announcements/corporate-actions/listing-and-admission-to-trading-of-new-shares-of-the-company-on-the-main-market-of-the-london-stock-exchange-the-lse-and-on-the-regulated-securities-market-of-the-athens-exchange-the-athex/

This could be an interesting development as it could help Fairfax shift more of their bond investments to Canadian corporate bonds. While the below mentioned changes for Canadian banks and Life insurance companies, I would think that this would also apply to Fairfax. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-regulator-business-lending-by-banks-support-economy/#comments Canada’s banking regulator is working to change the way it treats some business loans, in an effort to make it more appealing for banks to lend to companies that are key to Ottawa’s plans to reshape the country’s economy. The head of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), Peter Routledge, said Wednesday that the regulator is consulting with banks and life insurers “to help them help the country,” at a conference in Toronto held by Bank of Nova Scotia. The forthcoming changes are intended to “rebalance” a highly technical set of rules by which the regulator assigns different levels of risk – known as “risk weightings” – to different types of bank loans. Those weightings help determine how much capital a bank has to hold in reserve against its loan portfolio, which in turn shapes decisions about who gets loans and how much banks lend.

Fairfax has increased its ownership of JKH to 24.2%, approaching the 25% threshold which I believe will impact reporting going forward. Based on the stock hitting a new 12 month low today, they will likely get over 25% this week. https://www.ft.lk/front-page/Largest-shareholder-Fairfax-picks-up-additional-1-3-JKH-stake-for-Rs-5-2-b/44-781144#

Ben Watsa provided an interview on his experiences with his Marvel Capital Fund. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-marval-capital-ben-watsa-india-trump-trade/ Here is a Gift link if the above is paywalled. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/88b464f77c2863c66a9326ee3eb93664ae337885ca5483f02881b645ad033c36/4IRMTNUZN5BVLKOF6OHWZVQOEE/

This was to be expected. Fairfax has announced that they will be redeeming cumulative Preferred share series G/H on Sep 30th. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-intention-to-redeem-cumulative-preferred-shares-series-g-h/

Peak Achievement is securing new debt to partially replace debt due in 2027. S&P provides an interesting summary of their analysis of Peak Achievement. https://sgbonline.com/peak-achievement-athletics-to-pay-down-term-loan-with-new-debt-offering/#:~:text=“We anticipate that Peak's leverage,term loan due December 2027. “We anticipate that Peak’s leverage will improve to below 4.0x in F2026 as acquisition-related one-time charges roll off. The company plans to issue C$250 million (US$179 million) unsecured notes due August 2033, using the majority of the proceeds to pay down existing US$339 million term loan due December 2027. Pro forma the transaction and based on S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA for the 12 months through June 30, 2025, the company’s leverage will be about 5x. However, for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, there were significant one-time costs related to Fairfax acquiring Peak. As those one-time transaction-related charges phase out, we expect EBITDA margin to return to a more normal 19 percent–20 percent in F2026. As a result, we project S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage will improve to the 3.5x-4x area by year-end fiscal 2026. “Our ratings incorporate a one-notch uplift for group support. Peak is 100 percent-owned by and fully consolidated with the financials of its parent, Fairfax, but it will operate as a stand-alone business. We view Peak as moderately strategic to Fairfax. Therefore, we don’t expect any ongoing financial support from Fairfax, and only under extraordinary circumstances would we expect Fairfax to assist financially. We also believe Fairfax will be a long-term investor in Peak and maintain a prudent financial policy with respect to dividends. As a result, our ‘b+’ SACP on Peak receives a one-notch parental uplift, resulting in a ‘BB-‘ ICR. “Robust pricing power and solid demand for hockey equipment will support near-term growth. Q1 2025 sales growth stemmed primarily from price increases. It raised prices earlier this year due to tariffs, and there was minimal customer backlash. Hockey and lacrosse consumers generally have relatively high household incomes and tend to be more inclined to pay for quality and premium products. This and Peak’s well-established brand equity give the company significant pricing power. Across all of its categories, the company offers products at multiple price tiers, broadening its potential customer base. And to better attract and support beginner players, it didn’t raise the prices of entry-level products this year. We expect top-line growth of approximately 7.5 percent in 2026, primarily driven by price increases. The remainder will come from volume growth, bolstered by the launch of the Vapor FlyLite collection in June, contracts with the Professional Women’s Hockey League and Hockey Canada, and the continued expansion of its custom products line. “Even with tariffs, we believe the company’s profitability will remain above the industry average. Absent one-time items related to the sale to Fairfax, Peak’s 2025 S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margin was 19 percent to 20 percent. This exceeds the 16 percent to 17 percent generated by Topgolf and TaylorMade Holdings Inc. (B/Stable/–). With most of Peak’s manufacturing based overseas and significant sales in the U.S., it remains highly exposed to tariffs; however, management has indicated that these costs have been passed on to customers through price increases. The company is also working with key suppliers to reduce its exposure to China by relocating production elsewhere in the region. We expect Peak to maintain these margins in the near term, even when taking into account tariff-induced macroeconomic headwinds in Canada. However, the risk remains that a further increase in tariff rates could compress EBITDA margins and pressure the company’s creditworthiness if EBITDA declines substantially.

One transaction that can sometimes get missed when looking at equity value increases, are large onetime dividend payouts such as was done with Stelco. We will likely see another large onetime dividend payout from Waterous (Strathcona) this year that represents >25% of current equity value.

Thanks @Viking for the detailed breakdown of the equity portfolio so far. I didn't see it mentioned, but did you account of the sale of Praktiker in Q3. This looks like a ~$100M gain.

Thanks. While not a lot of greater detail is outlined in the publication, it is easier to read and provides a summary of a 100 year event for Miami. If they were to extend their model to beyond 100 years then we could see a much larger hurricane impact for the North East US. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 On September 11th, 1926, a hurricane formed in the central tropical Atlantic, gradually strengthening while tracking northwest across the Atlantic, and eventually passing north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas on the way to Florida. On September 18th, the eye of the hurricane, with estimated winds of 145 mph, passed directly over Miami. The population of Miami was around 100,000 when the Great Miami Hurricane hit. Today, it is over six million. If this storm were to occur today, over $5 trillion in total property value would be impacted by hurricane-force winds. While building codes and construction practices have improved since 1926, given the storm’s strength and landfall location, the insured losses today from a repeat of the Great Miami Hurricane would exceed $200 billion.

Strathcona lost out in its bid for MEG. that would mean Fairfax would soon see a $10/share dividend from Waterous. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-cenovus-energy-acquiring-meg-energy/

KCC updated their hurricane models to determine where the potentials are for $100B hurricane losses. The number of hurricanes in one seasons has little impact on losses as usually there is just one large hurricane that provides this large loss and that can happen at anytime. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/kcc-identifies-us-coastal-cities-at-risk-of-100bn-hurricane-losses/ KCC notes that losses do not necessarily rise with the number of storms; for example, the six hurricanes that hit the US in 2020 resulted in insured losses close to the long-term average. Historically, years with unusually high losses tend to feature one or two catastrophic storms, such as Hurricane Andrew in 1992 or Hurricane Ian in 2022. Over the past 25 years, major U.S. metropolitan areas have largely avoided direct hurricane hits. Karen Clark & Company’s simulations show that while 16 major hurricanes have made landfall, none have struck Miami, Houston, or other high-value population centers.

It looks like Seaspan started doing new build contracts in RMB last fall when they signed a contract for six new builds. https://www.imarinenews.com/15485.html

I did try to look for that earlier but could not find any breakdown of contracts by currency.

I noticed that as well and seems to be a recent trend. All 41 new builds are coming from China and most if not all of that are likely financed at a lower rate in RMB.

Seaspan just signed for 12 additional new builds from China at a cost of $1.2B. It certainly looks like Seaspan is not concerned about the long term impacts of Tariffs. They now have 41 new builds at various stages to be completed over the next 4 years. https://www.xindemarinenews.com/en/shipbuilding/2025/0818/60951.html