UK

Congratulations with finally getting some real love (not so common prosperity:)) from CCP!

Finally some real action from CCP, lets see if will be enough / how sustainable it is.

Perhaps some (or much?) of recently increased demand is also because of all these sanctions and diversification away from USD/EUR/etc by CB of Russia, China and the likes?

It could work this way: ,The soldier-turned US President Dwight Eisenhower once said that when he couldn’t solve problems, he made them bigger, so he could':)

https://ia.samaltman.com/

Actually if I was pressed hard to insure for something really bad by owning something like this, I think my choice would be Bitcoin Vs gold

“Well, I've been sleeping like a baby,” said McCain, to warm, slightly relieved laughter from the studio audience. “I sleep two hours, wake up, and cry." Just joking:)

Well, it is also possible to buy new limited colectible silver or gold coins (but only a few pet person) issues and to basically sell them for 2x the next day, but does this has anything to do with gold or silver itself:)?

This is a type of risk I am very sensitive to, but I think to deal with it, you do not need gold at all, just some common sense rules and housekeeping, e.g. to think about jurisdictions of your investments (never owned stocks in countries like Russia, except a few for a brief period in China:)) and perhaps even of financial intermediates you use. I think I have moved to IBUK from my local banks the same year Russia took Crimea from Ukraine, because it was way better and cheaper, but I remember joking at the time, that well, at least my capital is safe, if Russia is about to nullify some 500-1000 km of territory to the west from it again. Some 10 years past and such jokes are not very funny anymore:)

Definitelly could be hard for him to let sit everybody idle during soft insurance market:))

Current CEO started in 2013 when the share was trading at 100 GBp and over next 10 years it went up more than 6x, not including dividends. Does anyone has any evidence it was or is poorly managed outside Terminix? Which I agree, was a controversial decision, perhaps bad, but is only halway through its integration, not even outside its original timeline, not sure you already can call it (integration of not so good acquisition) awful either. The Terminix is surely looks like more awful than expected:), especially considering the price paid, but this looks like sunk cost or temporary issue and if fixed, is not this exactly a business you should want to marry? If its true that RTO is considered better place to work than Apple in GB and its NPS so high, why is everybody talking that it is and was undermanaged for ages?

https://fortune.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-why-stocks-beat-gold-and-bonds/ Not much to add:)

https://stratechery.com/2024/enterprise-philosophy-and-the-first-wave-of-ai/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/ukraine-use-of-weapons-in-russia-should-be-loosened-denmark-pm-frederiksen-says?srnd=homepage-europe

I am not assuming or forecasting this in any way, other than using such assumption for stress testing, as a worst case scenario (say market panic and unrelatedly some big cat event) to evaluate possible hit to portfolio, which would be temporary perhaps, but nevertheless, I would prefer it to not exceed 20 percent from total portfolio with any position. I think even Buffett has said, that BRK went down ~50 percent for a few times in its history and that any stock investor should be prepared for such a possibility.

Thanks for your elaborate answer!

+1. I agree, this is very personal and evolves with circumstances. What is probability if FFH going to zero (while total market only halving at worst) over the next ten years in your opinion?

Health is lost something is lost, money is lost nothing is lost:). Having said this, losing 40 percent, while still would not be a big tragedy, it would definitely be a big hit and change my life somewhat...so I try to cape my possible bigest loss at ~20 percent, which is as big as your usual bear market and so should be managable psychologically and otherwise. This would imply FFH going down 50 percent if your total allocation for it is 40 percent. Currently it would mean for it to trade at ~0.6 PBV of pre some event BV. Perhaps less impossible than going to zero (this even has had happened in the past), but still, perhaps I see way less than 10-20 or even 5 percent probability of this to happen over say next 5-10 years. How do other think?

Thanks for sharing! It is good investing is not the same like flying some passenger plane (talk about anxiety) and mistakes are allowed (even Buffett has had some zeroes). Also, what matters more is how much you make when you are right, so concentrating fully makes sense in my mind for this and many other reasons. Everything is possible, but I actually think that probability of FFH going to zero is almost zero, unless the whole marked does something similar, in which case, I assure, everyone will have far biger problems and things to worry, than zeroes in their portfolios:). Everyone is 100 percent responsible for his investment decisions no mater how they were discovered:)

I feel, like I missed something, what went to zero last year?

This is what you are playing when FFH trades at <1 PBV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mgw5j9h8528 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgSPaXgAdzE This is what you are playing when FFH trades at 1-1.3 BV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzYWTIHqutA https://youtu.be/VyvJIjAo7qI This is what you are playing when FFH trades at 1.3-1.5 BV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEjU9KVABao https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqhCQZaH4Vs This is what you are playing when FFH trades at 1.7-2 BV: https://youtu.be/rrbFQEcpJ3A?t=99 This is what you are playing when FFH trades at >2 BV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjzJYa7tHLs This is for mega event or if you did not listened tune for the >2BV and now are back at <1 BV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AHCfZTRGiI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXqPNlng6uI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOJSmXSFCWk This is for taking long term view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-qkY2yj4_A This is for MW: https://youtu.be/JoolQUDWq-k

Sorry, I was just kidding, I do not disagree:). Btw, personally I think we are at an almost satisfactory PBV level and it would be perfect for it to stay in some 1,3-1,5 PVB range from here.

Perhaps momentum and also this short scare in the summer seems did nothing bad for a sentiment either, anecdotally, lots of folks are incuiring which ETF is the best to buy again, some are doing this for the first time since really ancient times:)

Maybe they should look more creatively and just acquire some current constituent themselves in order get in:)))

+1. Even now. At least not jumbo position:)