UK

https://www.statista.com/statistics/916054/us-nonresidential-building-construction-market-cost/ It seems it went down only -12 per cent after 2008-2009.

Nice chart:)

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/rob-arnott-sees-just-near-perfect-environment-for-value-stocks-432SI-3182976 “It is wonderful for people who have enjoyed the growth run and been light on value to have a third chance to rebalance and take advantage of bargains,” he said before his television interview. “You don’t often get that. So I look at the current environment as being a just near perfect environment for value.”

Don't worry, just go long FFH then:)))

Have not seen anything more. Might be just discusion of some hypothetical scenarious. Also link to some older article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-20/dimon-says-fed-may-have-to-hike-more-to-fight-sticky-inflation

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-26/private-equity-is-piling-debt-on-itself-like-never-before?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg Private equity firms have been increasingly adding another layer of debt to their complex borrowing arrangements, raising concern among some investors about potential risks to the wider industry and the financial system. Hit by a drought of deals and dwindling cash, some buyout firms are starting to resort to backroom financing to help meet fund commitments or enable succession planning. The loans — backed by assets including the promise of future income — carry interest of as much as 19%, a rate that's more akin to the charges faced by consumers rather than corporate borrowing. Even a junk-rated company in the US paid 10% on a bond recently. ... “The investor universe is unbelievably unaware of the underlying leverage throughout this entire ecosystem,” said New York-based Dan Zwirn, founder and chief executive officer of Arena Investors LP, an institutional manager overseeing more than $3.5 billion in assets. “That hasn’t hit the PE investors yet, but it’s becoming more clear for real estate investors,” he said, referring to the recent delinquencies in the commercial property sector.

https://www.politico.eu/article/nord-stream-2-germany-bears-responsibility-for-ukraine-war-minister/ It is scandalous, but no less scandalous than the fact that these pipes were build in the first place:)))

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-26/dimon-warns-world-may-not-be-prepared-for-fed-at-7-toi-lmzl7rao#xj4y7vzkg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-25/short-sellers-mount-attack-on-esg-stocks-bloated-from-green-hype?srnd=premium-europe

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/15/opinion/ukraine-war-putin.html

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/09/21/why-uranium-prices-are-soaring

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/americas-billionaires-love-japanese-stocks-why-dont-the-japanese-f13ef087?mod=hp_lead_pos5 Japanese households put an average of just 11% of their savings into stocks and 54% in cash and bank deposits, according to Bank of Japan data released last month. That trails well behind the U.S., where households have about 39% of their money tied up in the market and only 13% in cash and bank deposits, according to Federal Reserve data. ... “The Nikkei might hit 40,000, god knows when,” said Heihachiro “Hutch” Okamoto, foreign equity consultant at retail brokerage Monex. “But most of our investors prefer U.S. stocks.” To Okamoto’s point, the most popular names traded on Monex daily aren’t Japanese stock indexes like the Topix or Nikkei, brand-name companies like Sony or even the “sogo shosha”—the trading houses that Buffett has invested in. Instead, they are all American names: companies like Nvidia, Tesla, Apple and Amazon.com, as well as funds tracking the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. ... “Most people here think investing is very risky,” said Hidekazu Ishida, a special adviser at FinCity.Tokyo, which works with the government and the financial industry to try to boost investment in Tokyo. Being into finance comes off as “kakkowarui,” he added, referencing a word for uncool. Even some heads of companies are lukewarm about the idea of encouraging more individual investors to buy Japanese stocks. “I’m neutral about that,” said Takeshi Niinami, chief executive officer of whisky and beverage giant Suntory, when asked if he thought it would be a good idea for more Japanese people to invest in the market. Stock investing is risky, he said. And many Japanese people remain wary of participating in the market, because of the severity of prior downturns. “I think perhaps increasing interest rates is better for people,” he said.

It is a little bit offtopic, but I found it interesting: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/slow-boil-refugee-crisis-takes-its-toll-even-in-germany-dfdadaae Just over half of migrants who came to Germany in 2015 and 2016 have a job now, said Thomas Liebig, a researcher with the international migration division of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That is higher than in previous migration waves, he said, but far lower than in the U.S., where barriers to employment are lower and the lack of social benefits makes work imperative. U.S. data is less standardized, but a Department of Health and Human Services study found that of refugees who arrived between 2014 and 2018, 83% of men and 67% of women had full-time employment by 2019. I quess "small government" in this case just works better.

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/on-the-news/how-us-atacms-missiles-could-help-push-ukraine-back-into-crimea/E532E1AB-74C5-4E71-8B98-539B61E1511F

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html?fbclid=IwAR06WIuzVhT-RWId6IdF1wSMq02t-52t6JD5mVdjQYvzv5xyB7AjaYcWmAY “The weather can be a serious obstacle during advance, but considering how we move forward, mostly without vehicles, I don’t think [the weather] will heavily influence the counteroffensive,” Tarnavsky told Pleitgen in the interview. “Right now, neither the enemy nor us uses large formations, companies, battalions or brigades. We use assault squads, groups of 10 to 15 men,” he explained. “They conduct titanic work of concentrating enemy fire on them and using all the means they have to use to survive.” One of the reasons for the slow advance, the general said, was the fact that Russia had been able to learn some lessons from other Ukrainian offensives. “The Russians are learning quite fast, as they don’t have any other choice. If they don’t learn, they will be defeated sooner,” he explained. “I wouldn’t say they are adapting to our actions, as we also change our tactics.” He said Ukraine had also been adapting to using Western equipment, as well as Western tactics. When asked about rising resistance in the West to continuing weapons supplies to Ukraine, especially in the US, where some have voiced doubt about Kyiv’s chances of success, Tarnavsky said he respected their view. “Let it be the opinion of the skeptics. It’s not a competition and we don’t have a choice,” he said. “I understand somebody may have imagined large scale counteroffensive operations. But times are changing, enemy tactics are changing, weapons change.” “We have one goal – liberation of our territories. However hard it is we will keep on working. And I want to thank even the skeptics, their criticism also influences our task’s success,” he said.

Succession policy seems in place:) This is how it works, when the west decides it is not their business anymore: As Wagner’s operations in the Central African Republic grew, it offered services to other African governments that were under domestic pressure and felt abandoned by the West, often because of sanctions or concerns over human rights. ... Each country that Wagner entered was pulled deeper into Russia’s sphere of influence. Sytii helped run the nonmilitary side of that operation.

Some domestic investors are also voting with their feet: https://www.wsj.com/finance/chinas-economic-worries-spur-a-different-kind-of-shopping-spree-1321e607

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/09/21/western-help-for-ukraine-is-likely-to-diminish-next-year The year after next is also a lifetime away in terms of politics. In Europe, the political winds seem favourable to Ukraine. Polls conducted in June and July showed that 64% of Europeans favour military aid to Ukraine, with strong support not just in countries with a long-standing suspicion of Russia, such as Sweden (93%), but also in more distant member states such as Portugal (90%). Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, has been mindful of anti-war sentiment, notably within his own Social Democratic Party. He dithered for months before agreeing to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine. He still refuses to send long-range Taurus missiles, even though Britain and France have given Ukraine comparable weapons. Yet Mr Scholz has by now realised that public scepticism is mushy: as soon as he sends a new weapon, approval broadly follows. On September 18th his government announced another €400m ($429m) of arms, including ammunition, armoured vehicles and mine-clearing equipment. Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, who provoked grumbling in Kyiv last year over his frequent phone calls with Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart, and over his hesitation in sending weapons, is now among the most gung-ho of European leaders. France has long resisted expanding the eu, yet Mr Macron has become a fervent supporter of Ukraine’s accession to the bloc. A poll in July showed that 58% of the French backed this approach. Ukraine’s bid for eu membership is proceeding at a pace that would have astonished Europe-watchers just a few years ago. It formally became a candidate to join in June, 2022. This December, barring a shock, that status will be upgraded by the opening of detailed negotiations on accession. Ukraine is dazzling eu officials with its swift progress on the necessary reforms. It may still take years for Ukraine to become a fully fledged member, but the war seems to be speeding up the process rather than delaying it. ... In America, however, the outlook is much more divided and uncertain. On August 10th the White House asked Congress to authorise another $24bn “supplemental” budget for Ukraine, which would bring total American aid thus far to $135bn. Supporters of such assistance, among both Democrats and Republicans, constitute a clear majority of both chambers of Congress. Were the request put to a simple up-or-down vote, it would be approved relatively easily. But it is unlikely to be, because of America’s dysfunctional politics. A majority of the members of the House of Representatives may support Ukraine, but a small number of Republicans hold extreme anti-Ukrainian views, including Matt Gaetz, who has proposed inviting Russia to join nato, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, a conspiracy theorist who has promoted the absurd notion that aid to Ukraine is actually being siphoned off by donors to the Democrats. Since the Republicans have only a slender majority in the House and since the Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, does not want to rely on Democratic votes to push legislation through, the pro-Russia fringe has much more influence than its numbers would imply. The likeliest course is for Mr McCarthy to attach the supplemental budget to other important legislation, making it harder to derail. Past efforts in the House to deny Ukraine funding have been overcome, although each one attracts more Republican votes. Mr Biden already has congressional approval to send a further $6bn-worth of weapons to Ukraine from existing stockpiles. But after that there is likely to be a delay of several months while Congress contorts itself over the latest request. What emerges may be dribs and drabs of aid, rather than the big packages of last year. In the longer run, aid for Ukraine is fast becoming a partisan issue, which makes its prospects ever less certain. Republican voters, egged on by the scepticism of Donald Trump, their party’s likeliest nominee for president next year, have begun to question further aid to Ukraine. Democrats remain broadly supportive. The big budget deficit and high interest rates make politicians of all parties reluctant to rack up more debt. And even Democrats support the notion that America’s European allies should be the ones taking the initiative in conflicts on their own borders. And then there is the possibility that Mr Trump wins next year’s election. His policy on Ukraine is characteristically incoherent. In March he promised that he would settle the war in “no longer than one day”, before even entering office. “We don’t have ammunition for ourselves,” he complained in May, “We’re giving away so much.” But he denies he would push for a deal allowing Mr Putin to keep Ukrainian territory. “Nobody was tougher on Russia than me,” he said this week, insisting he would strike “a fair deal for everybody”.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/09/21/to-endure-a-long-war-ukraine-is-remaking-its-army-economy-and-society Ukrainians clearly have some concerns about how the country is being run. Approval of the army and the president remain sky high, but confidence in the country’s politicians in general is down from 60% in December to 44% in June. The share of Ukrainians who say the country is on the right track has also slipped (see chart). There is disquiet about corruption in particular. But 76% tell pollsters they do not want new elections until the war is over. Support for Ukraine’s independence is the highest it has ever been, at 82%. Most do not complain about restrictions on movement or other wartime curtailment of civil liberties. “War has become part of a new horrific normal,” says Darina Solodova, a sociologist with the United Nations Development Programme in Kyiv. Resistance to Russia’s aggression remains a unifying principle for the vast majority. “It is not the question of whether to resist or not, but who has done more or less for that resistance,” says Ms Solodova. Across Ukraine 42% say that even if Russia intensifies its bombing of cities Ukraine should keep fighting. Some 21% think that the conflict should be frozen without making any concessions to Russia. Only 23% think it is worth initiating negotiations. Even in the east and south, which have borne the brunt of the war, support for negotiations is relatively low, at 32% and 39% respectively. Only 5% of Ukrainians are willing to cede any territory to Russia and only 18% to forswear joining nato.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-21/hedge-fund-manager-jampel-stops-shorting-fossil-fuel-stocks?srnd=premium

Was reading attentively this very good discusion on equities vs bonds, but it seems will end up desiring to eat something from eggs, thanks:)

Thanks! This is very interesting, didn't knew such research is available. It also confirms some of my unexpectedly pleasant personal expierence in Denmark:). Would love to see more countries included.

“The dollar is a beast again,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-19/dollar-rally-is-crushing-one-of-the-most-popular-trades-of-2023#xj4y7vzkg Yet, I don't now how many times I have read in the 1H and at the start of the year how USD was supposed getting much weaker this year. It was very strong consensus.

https://www.ft.com/content/f1518d40-b065-44a6-ada2-7ee4a074d839 But first he had to warn the group’s largest shareholder about the potential losses and get him on board. “I called Warren Buffett and said, ‘We’re probably going to lose $4 a share, and I am not sure when billing is going to come back . . . But I think what we need to do is take care of our colleagues [and] take care of our customers. If we do that, I think, we’ll have long-term viability for our shareholders.’” Buffett, who bought most of Berkshire Hathaway’s Amex shares in the 1990s and now owns a 20 per cent stake, was sold. “‘The most important thing to take care of is your customers and your brand,’ he replied. ‘It’s hard to get customers back. And once you damage the brand, it’s damaged.’” ... Squeri has restructured rewards across the company, eliminating ratings for business units and dramatically expanding the bonus programme. Now the entire 77,000-person workforce is eligible for a chunky annual payment based on their individual performance and the company-wide results. Before the change, “you had a load of people [whose] motivation was that the company just stay in business,” Squeri says. “Now, their motivation is, how can we make it better?”

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/americas-biggest-landlords-cant-find-houses-to-buy-either-ea893213?mod=hp_lead_pos2 “The reality is the rental-rate increases, as aggressive as they’ve been, have not kept up with home-price appreciation,” he said.