UK

+1

Just look at Italy or even France then:). I think this problem will emerge sooner or later and it will be much larger than with Greece. Perhaps Japan will hit the limits first though.

+1

+1

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-22/jpmorgan-at-odds-with-goldman-sees-solid-run-ahead-for-stocks?srnd=homepage-europe Over at JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset and wealth-management divisions, analysts offer a more benign outlook. They’re anticipating that US large-cap equities — the big company stocks that have driven much of the recent gains — will remain a pillar of investors’ portfolios and return an annualized 6.7% over the next 10-15 years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/schwarzman-says-us-to-avoid-recession-no-matter-who-s-president?srnd=homepage-europe

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-drone-attack-damages-distilleries-russias-tula-region-governor-says-2024-10-22/ Now this is serious escallation:)

+1. And as time passes by, much more is lost in preparing for market crashes than in actual market crashes:)

I could be wrong, but my gut still does not allows me to get a conviction for a substantial China allocation, so I sold a few minor China positions and bought more of RTO instead:)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-21/carson-block-says-close-your-eyes-and-buy-us-stocks-not-china-m2ikwagi “It probably pays to not think too much, just close your eyes and buy probably Magnificent Seven,” Block said in an exclusive interview with Bloomberg TV. “In the past few years, I have looked back on my career as an activist short seller and done the math and felt like I probably could have just been” long the S&P 500, he added.

But is this even possible in UK case? I know I can still do this in my country, not sure about UK or US though. Edit: apparently you can do it:) https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/exit-tax-stop-millionaires-fleeing-uk-050048734.html One year in a place like Cyprus than and CGT is gone:)?

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/10/14/why-the-american-stockmarket-reigns-supreme

Btw this is not the thread about it, but Economist just issued special report about US economy: https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024-10-19 'The envy of the world' This one is especially good: https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024/10/14/american-productivity-still-leads-the-world

This is exactly right and one of the major problems/question still to be answered. Perhaps the dream of pro more EU forces is (or was at least) to have US like federal system one day, but I would not hold my breath for this, since major countries, especially north vs south just can not agree yet to form common household so to speak:). Draghi just issued mega alert and proposed common bonds and the next day Germany said nein (and I fully understand why). However everytime there is major crisis or pressure from the market, some small steps are being made into such direction. E.g. there was limited common bond issue during pandemic together with this talk of Europe's Hamiltonian moment, but I guess nothing again will move substantialy into this direction untill the next crisis. The good (bad) news, sooner or later there will be another opportunity:). Btw if you think about individual states, most northern states, especially ones with its own currencies (all Scandinavia ex Finland), I think they are as sound as you could get in many aspects, but also Germany, Netherlands, Ireland etc, all quite rock solid investment wise in my opinion, of course each with its own peculiarities:)

This is indeed worrisome, still direction is the same, more and more escalation, formerly silent parties geting directly involved and also this recent talk/idea of Ukraine acquiring its own nuclear weapons.

How would you like it to be addressed:)? First of all EU is not a country yet and thanks god EU commisions role is very limited and its policies have to be accepted by member states first. Of course EUs biurocracy sometimes is a sorry mess, by itself EU is unfinished project (no common budget), national interests and politics of its members are divided, so really important stuff is being done only in times of bad crises. Yet at the same time EU works in general, it brings peace and relative prosperity for ~400 M people, free trade union works, free movement almost works, EU passport is as great as US I would argue. Even some regulations or policies are really good and some things, perhaps healthcare system in general, are even better than in US? Or you can count 3-5 places in EU with more or less zero capital gain tax I think:). People are also getting fed up with bad stuff, especially with immigration (look at Sweden, Poland, even Germany recently) and green transition (as they realise its costs) and are voting accordingly, but this is slower process than in US, as it has to filter through national elections. But things are changing as we speak, just look at recent asylium seeking changes, reconsidering of green transition etc. Btw I believe EU enlargement also worked so far, as it almost assures newly joint member gets imediate economical benefits and its governance is not derailed by some foreign influence (just look at Belarus or even Moldava currenly). And old members get new market or cheap labour. So all these regulations and absurdities...I quess you just have to take it with what is good about EU, the system is not as great as in US, but it is not so bad either, and also importantly varies/you can choose where to invest by a country. And some bad cases are not so different from US perhaps, e.g. what would you say if I asked why you are not doing anything about FTC and Lina Khan or not fixing US immigration system etc:)? Now, having said this, I think US has enormous advantages, such as demographic, geography, millitary might, reserve currency, constructive state competition, abundant energy and food resources etc, so else equal, the choice for the next 10 or 20 years is quite obvious to me. Borrow in EUR and go long US and USD, without overplaying this too much:)

This was a good video, maybe it would fit under market top thread, where I also posted about the possible implications of elections on the markets and it seems so far no one objected (or maybe Sanjeev was just too busy to notice it yet:)).

Just ask David: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-investor-david-einhorn-says-232814929.html

Nice comparison, but BRK is cheaper than this headline gaap number suggests, on the look through basis.

I kind of agree and do nothing about this really, but at the same time think all this agenda, especially deregulation, could induce more animal spirits for US market and hitting the top could as well be postponed or could be at the even higher level. Again, nothing more, but the pure speculation...all this thread is about anyway:)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-15/trump-defends-economic-agenda-saying-tariffs-will-fuel-growth?srnd=homepage-europe "The former president has vowed to carry out an aggressive campaign of deregulation, renew expiring tax cuts, lower the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21%, and offer fresh tax reductions and benefits to bolster domestic manufacturing — policies cheered by prominent Wall Street and corporate leaders." "Former US President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump says the US will go to “third world status” if the dollar loses its status as the world’s reserve currency." I know politics is not allowed to discuss here, and not without good reason:), but boy if Trump wins this election and maybe if Republicans also take the Senate, would not this be very bullish for US market? And much more important than other near/mid term factors, including what FED is going to do? The one thing I did not liked until recently is Trumps team talk about how strong USD is bad for US, but it seems even here they recently came to their senses. I know the consensus is that locked government would becthe best for the market, but perhaps, other than somewhat higher probability of some long tail risks (more so 4 years later:)), I just do not see how this scenario would not be more bullish for the stock market and US economy in general? https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2024/10/02/trump-election-sweep-likely-bullish-for-us-stocks-rbc-analysts-say/ Sorry if this post is too not appropriate but I feel it is quite an important one to consider, so lets not go into discussing the politics or the persons too much, only their possible impact on the market:)