UK

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-07/bridgewater-had-believability-issues?srnd=premium-europe With the hope of turning around the firm’s investment performance, members of the Circle of Trust put together a study of Mr. Dalio’s trades. They trawled deep into the Bridgewater archives for a history of Mr. Dalio’s individual investment ideas. The team ran the numbers once, then again, and again. The data had to be perfect. Then they sat down with Mr. Dalio, according to current and former employees who were present. (Lawyers for Mr. Dalio and Bridgewater said that no study was commissioned of Mr. Dalio’s trades and that no meeting took place to discuss them.) One young employee, hands shaking, handed over the results: The study showed that Mr. Dalio had been wrong as much as he had been right. Trading on his ideas lately was often akin to a coin flip. The group sat quietly, nervously waiting for the Bridgewater founder’s response. Mr. Dalio picked up the piece of paper, crumpled it into a ball and tossed it.

'Nevertheless, the takeaway applies everywhere: The private sector may not be able to provide as much bond-market liquidity as officials’ fiscal plans imply.' and 'Eventually, central banks would buy bonds again. But backstops kick in only after severe market disruptions.'

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-07/buffett-s-157-billion-cash-pile-isn-t-an-ominous-sign?embedded-checkout=true Everything in the world is relative, including Warren Buffett’s cash position.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/the-big-problem-with-government-debt-isnt-what-you-think-b876c198?mod=hp_minor_pos21

https://www.economist.com/culture/2023/10/27/a-golden-age-of-tv-is-losing-its-shine There are some subjects where the globe-spanning tech titans are even touchier than the old broadcast networks. Apple recently cancelled “The Problem with Jon Stewart”, a satirical current-affairs show, reportedly because of concerns about Mr Stewart’s critical stances on China and artificial intelligence. Some of the people who helped to create tv’s golden age are downbeat about its future. hbo “died at 50”, Michael Fuchs, who ran the network in the 1980s, tells Mr. Biskind. “There’s no longer an hbo.” A producer of “The Wire”, one of hbo’s grittiest and most celebrated shows, says the company would never make it today. For creatives, television’s golden age is turning into a gilded cage.

Hindenburg’s biggest oversight, according to Turlov, was in “underestimating our shareholder structure and the level of trust our clients have in us.” Does this mean he does not dispute other accusations by Hindenburg:)?

I sometimes feel this way, especially looking only at value of their stock portfolio and Apple position size. But is it really so9 crazy at 20 per cent from total assets or value? Even if something really bad happens to Apple (China/Taiwan?) and it's stock price halves, it would be only 10 per cent hit vs BRK's market cap. It is hardly a tragedy, a week ago it was down the same amount or liitle more from it's September ATH.

Long live higher (normal?) interest rates. Isn't it nice, how at the same time higher rates are starting to hurt a lot of (most?) companies and sectors, BRK's insurance operation is starting to perform so good? I also remember WB talking about need for more normal interest rate envirinment, in order to achieve higher longterm BRK returns. Insurance should be also be more or less recession proof, just in case it happens in the future. All of this should also apply 100 per cent for FFH:)

So, excluding wildfire losses, operating pretax earning are up 59 per cent in Q3 and 27 per cent YTD? Who says elephants can't dance:)?

Thanks!

Anybody has transcript?

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/charlie-munger-will-take-your-questions-now-3e842ab7

Thank you! Yes, however this item will develope in the future, I doubt it could become 'thesis killer'. Underwriting, bond portfolio management and other/general execution continues to be excelent. I think this question 'Is Fairfax moving up the quality chain (of insurers) when it comes to underwriting' is much more important for the whole story. And the answer: it looks like so!

Yes, it is second thing I am not sure how awesome it is:). Seems this makes up some 31 per cent of total pretax earnings in Q3 (24 percent in 9M). Excluding this, EPS would be ~30 USD, much closer to analyst estimates for the quarter. Not sure how to think about this item, making up almost 1/3 of the earnings, but dynamics of which nobody seems fully understand:) Not sure how to estimate net insurance liabilities change in the Q3, but I suspect (or am afraid), this thing is much more change in discount (interest) rate, than change in reserves, driven. Somebody should just ask on the earnings call plain and simple, if this damned thing will reverse as quickly as it grew, if interest rates will go substantially lower in the future.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-02/early-bets-on-nintendo-nidec-yield-big-gains-for-kyoto-bank?srnd=premium As a result of these early bets, the bank is now sitting on vast paper gains. As of March, the bank held shares in 137 companies worth about 920 billion yen ($6 billion). The stakes were originally worth about 150 billion yen, according to the company. The portfolio exceeds the bank’s market value of about 660 billion yen.

They also did bought a lot of shares and swaps when they where much cheaper. Also maybe they could delever more before buying shares aggressively?

No I didn't noticed. Why would they exclude this? On premiums growth, I think we should just wait for them to comment on it in tomorrow. Maybe not necessarily a big deal.

I wrote to him (cc morningstar) a while ago. Not sure he/they care. Not sure we should care about them either:)))

So highest EPS estimate was 26 USD vs actual 42 USD? Premiums growth is maybe the only thing which is not awesome?

Verdict?

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-top-general-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia The course of the counter-offensive has undermined Western hopes that Ukraine could use it to demonstrate that the war is unwinnable, forcing Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, to negotiate. It has also undercut General Zaluzhny’s assumption that he could stop Russia by bleeding its troops. “That was my mistake. Russia has lost at least 150,000 dead. In any other country such casualties would have stopped the war.” But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Mr Putin’s reference points are the first and second world wars, in which Russia lost tens of millions. ... “First I thought there was something wrong with our commanders, so I changed some of them. Then I thought maybe our soldiers are not fit for purpose, so I moved soldiers in some brigades,” says General Zaluzhny. When those changes failed to make a difference, the general told his staff to dig out a book he once saw as a student. Its title was “Breaching Fortified Defence Lines”. It was published in 1941 by a Soviet major-general, P.S. Smirnov, who analysed the battles of the first world war. “And before I got even halfway through it, I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.” ... Mr Putin is counting on a collapse in Ukrainian morale and Western support. There is no question in General Zaluzhny’s mind that a long war favours Russia, which has a population three times and an economy ten times the size of Ukraine. “Let’s be honest, it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us…the most expensive thing we have is our people,” he says. For now he has enough soldiers. But the longer the war goes on, the harder it will be to sustain. “We need to look for this solution, we need to find this gunpowder, quickly master it and use it for a speedy victory. Because sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”

I think deficit is important, especially for the general economy. But in terms of functioning treasury market, it's hell/panics, as was the last time in 2020, QE perhaps is also or even more important? Also I am not sure QE is not working in setting rates in the longer term in Japan and they would be anywhere close were they are today in term of debt and rates without yield control via massive QE? Also, when bond market started to break in UK last year, because of too big/unsustainable budget, the central bank was forced to postpone QT and even made some QE very quicky. However, what I am more sure about, is I do not understand all these things at all:))

Interesting! Thanks for sharing.

Interesting interview, but, as always, perhaps not very actionable, at least for me. But I liked his position on USD (after being wrong several times recently) this time: would love to hate it, until I look at every alternative available:))