UK

They just days ago again cracked down on online education and brokerages, providing foreign trading. And is Didi app already available? Would be far better indicator for me, than his greetings...

There is this idea, that AI could disrupt some current content creation, especially on social media or future metaverse: https://stratechery.com/2022/dall-e-the-metaverse-and-zero-marginal-content/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/bodies-pile-up-in-china-as-covid-surge-overwhelms-crematoriums “Bodies are overflowing everywhere,” said the employee, who asked not be named. “You’ll have to wait a month if not.” While funeral homes warn against trusting brokerage services, some middlemen are using creative ways to reach anguished families. On Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, videos featuring colorful visuals and stirring music advertise Mercedes-Benz hearses, elaborate burial clothes and Babaoshan cremation slots. “We couldn’t afford to live under lockdown,” wrote a person on Weibo, sharing a view commonly expressed on the social-media platform over the past few weeks. “And now we can’t afford to die.”

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-stock-what-to-watch-warren-buffett-51672586769

With enough thrust, pigs, can in fact fly

Actually your advice on bike seat resonates with me quite well:). Especially it is a problem for few weeks after winter break:). In a summer I ride bycycle almost every day. Somtimes I go to a completly unknown places, without plan, as we say "where eye can lead". In winter...well maybe home bike trainer is also much more for machines, but still I like it:)

BRK. Still not overpriced (or even yet below market valuation). Safe, defensive, somewhat resiliet to higher rates etc. I think still way better vs just SNP. FFH. Also higher rate proof, value/short duration, otherwise not much to add. JOE. Not much to add. Actually it is old economy stock, but longer duration rates wise. But i like it already, despite of where rates will be. META, GOOGL, AMZN. META is already value stock:), GOOGL at or even bellow market multiple and AMZN I think at least not overpriced:). As a group of by ~50 per cent, trading at simillar ot cheaper than market valuation, while arguably much better and much faster growing businesses. I think these are also somewhat inflation resilient in terms of their businesses (strong market position, low capex, pricing power), but perhaps would suffer more valuation wise, if rates would be higher, then expected. Maybe TSM could be added to this group. UMG. Maybe not obviously cheap looking ar current multiples, but really wonderfull business, with tech like growth, yet more long term visibility. Maybe, looking similarly, LVHM is also interesting.

I agree with your view, nothing to add.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-01/victory-over-russia-in-ukraine-may-bring-world-war-3-niall-ferguson?srnd=premium

This is not very pleasant video, but here you are, some managment lessons from Donbas:

I do not hedge currencies either. However not hedging plus borrowing in EUR would be much more like making a bet on currencies. Regarding EU I am much more sceptical, total debt maybe still ok, but just look at Italy, and it would be hard to fix its debt like Greece's, because of different size. But most important difference from US I think is potential long term economic growth rate. Just from demographics its 1 or even more per cent defference? And then all inovation, government size, energy independence, now security, millitary and other issues. But yes, I am no way considering USD undervalued after last year or two, and it could move against such strategy painfully at any time. But what odds of EUR gaining against USD in 5 or 10 years?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-12-30/manufactured-housing-revival-could-help-the-us-build-its-way-out-of-crisis For all its complexities, America’s nationwide housing crisis boils down to a problem of supply and demand: The country needs a lot more homes than it has, yet even ambitious reforms won’t provide developers with enough incentive to bridge the gap. Addressing this dilemma could well be the defining public-policy challenge of the next few decades. The problem is enormous: To close an accumulated shortfall estimated at 3.8 million units, the pace of housing construction would need to be about 50% higher over the next decade.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/reznikov-tells-russians-they-have-one-week-left-before-borders-close

Ha, my family had Lada, very similar to one in the photo, I grew up riding this car:)

We had a similar period in my country with temporary money, just after Ruble went toilet paper. The problem with such strategy was nobody would lend you any serious money for a long term in shitty currency in the first place or interest rates would be prohibitively high. There were some who were able to borow from the state owned banks, while making serious money in such way, but those were not market based transactions so to speak:). However, and I am not sure about this in the near or mid term, but I sometimes I wonder if borrowing EUR to fund investments in USD or other currencies would be a good strategy in the long term. EU, because of its debts, demographics etc, not to mention new energy and war issues, seems to be under some serious pressures and structural disadvantage vs rest of the world. I can not imagine very high EUR rates for a long term or relatively vs USD, and region could be forced to revert to zero rates just like JPY in the future, so 1. interest rates on EUR loans probably will stay lower with 2. a possibility for further EUR depreciation. It would be interesting to hear what other think about this, especially those based in EUR? If you invest in US/USD and use some leverage, do you borrow in USD or EUR?

A whopping 1 per cent:). Almost all good for portfolio came from BRK, which was 60+ position at the start of 2022. Almost all bad came from my mistake with China's big tech, which I closed in summer. Continue to hold BRK (still largest position). In 2H bought UMG, GOOGL, META, AMZN and substiantially added to FFH and JOE. Also added some smaller stuff for speculative/basket part of portfolio.

Thanks!

Which one you have in mind? Is it posible to share a link? Thanks!

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/12/28/ukraines-women-snipers-take-the-fight-to-putin Unlike men of conscription age, Ukrainian women are not barred from leaving the country. An initiative to extend the draft to women working in critical professions was due to be enacted last October, but it was postponed amid popular outcry. That means, for the time being at least, women who fight choose to do so voluntarily. That hasn’t stopped Ukraine’s armed forces taking on an increasingly female face. Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Anna Malyar, says there are now “at least 30,000” women soldiers serving in the army, or one in five of the official, pre-mobilised number. (The exact numbers in the army now are a closely guarded secret.) Most often, women soldiers fulfil back-line roles as medics, press officers, cooks, secret communications officers, or in the sensitive task of evacuating and treating bodies, dead or alive. But a growing number, at least 5,000, are performing front-line roles. Many dozens are snipers. The women trainees say they have faced resistance at every stage of their journey, usually from men who believed women are fundamentally unsuited to the sniping profession. “We’ve never sought an easy life,” says Phoenix, “but we’ve proven ourselves whenever the question is asked.” She says she is under no illusions about the dangers. Snipers occupy a particular spot in military psychology, and are singled out for demonstrative treatment if they are ever captured. Being female is unlikely to offer an advantage. “If a woman sniper is captured, she will be raped, humiliated, tortured, and then executed,” says Oksana. “A sniper should always be prepared to blow herself up with a grenade.”

AMZN, JOE.

https://www.dw.com/en/russian-lawmaker-dies-after-fall-in-indian-hotel/a-6422200 Antov's death is the latest in a string of mysterious deaths of Russian nationals and businessmen since the war in Ukraine. Alexander Buzakov, the director-general of a major Russian shipyard that specializes in building non-nuclear submarines died over the weekend, the shipyard announced in a statement without offering details. In September, Ivan Pechorin, the top manager for the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, was found dead in Vladivostok, a major Pacific port city in Russia. Russia media said Pechorin died after drowning near Cape Ignatyev in the Sea of Japan. Also in September, the chairman of Russia's largest private oil company Lukoil, Ravil Maganov, was found dead after falling out of a window. Russian media later reported he took his own life. In May, Alexander Subbotin, a former top manager of Lukoil, was found dead in a house near Moscow, according to Russian media. Other Russian businessmen and people with ties to Russia's military-industrial complex have also been reported dead in recent months.

John, naturally I think about all this every day, since February and i am no way a big military expert, but I would like to share with you, perhaps overly optimistic, views. First, in the neat term I think Russia is incapable of any major conventional offense as they are even on defense in Ukraine. Furthermore, I read somewhere that they moved like 80-90 per cent of their battle ready personnel from Kaliningrad and Saint Petersburg regions, including some serious equipment, like S-300 or S-400. I think it is highly unlikely they would open second front anywhere, but especially with NATO, in the near term. Even in Ukraine, today they lack basic ammo, like munitions for howitzers, there are videos online of Russian soldiers berating shamelessly Shoigu and Gerasimov for that. And it seems even in that front Ukrainians starting to gain advantage. Then situation in the Baltic region will improve substantially as soon as Sweden and Finland will be accepted to NATO, probably foregone conclusion. Also, just like with Ukraine, a year ago the line of thought was prevailing, that Baltic states or other countries there would be indefensible in case of Russian conventional attack, discussion was about days or weeks of possible resistance. Not anymore. Nobody today thinks it would be impossible to defend our self anymore. And lastly, our country just made its largest military purchase ever, there are plans to increase active personnel substantially and there are no hesitation to spend or do to whatever it takes to increase our defense capabilities substantially. Baltic states have vary little debt and we can afford a lot to spend and we will spend a lot I am sure. Poland alone, if what I read about their plans are true, will be enormous military force after 2-3 years, not to speak about Germany etc. So like I said, I am no expert at all, but I think a time when Russia could threaten region conventionally has ended. Probably never was, only perception. It seems Russia regime deliberately was weakening and kept its military weak, because of its own insecurities, not to speak about corruption. Ukraine fiasco just uncovered its true state. Maybe I am overly optimistic, but that is how I feel today and it is 180 opposite from a year ago or even 6 month ago:) I agree with Dinar, that much bigger threat to US and the world is China. I have no strong opinion on China, but last year has shaken this idea of Munger, that China is much more civilized country etc. I still think it is, I mean the regime in China is I think perhaps way more civilized than the regime in Russia, but not so sure about this anymore:). I also think, that China and Russia may have enormous inherent tensions between them. Lastly, I have no idea if that is possible, but if somehow Russia and Belarus could become normal and pro western countries again (perhaps after some painful changes at the top), I think that would be wonderful. Would not bet on this, but one could have some dreams:)