Blake Hampton

Not Just ‘Rare Earths’: U.S. Gets Many Critical Minerals From China - NYT

Trump couldn’t care less about the families of Fentanyl victims. He simply saw a political opportunity and took it.

As someone whose older brother overdosed and died from Fentanyl, I think that’s incredible writing. And I completely agree.

I would say Europe is an interconnected web of bad debts. Even with Trump acting mad, I don't know if they're generally a better bet than the U.S. or not.

Imagine being given everything in life, being a complete failure in business, and then thinking that you have the right to radically change the economic landscape of the entire world by yourself. It is ignorance on a grand scale. And some of you really support this—on a Berkshire forum, of all places.

And anyone who supported this guy simply got fooled. I said it prior to the election, and I'll say it here again: people who vote(d) for Trump are either ignorant or greedy. It's possible to be both, but you can't be neither.

Trump is a loser. A stupid, arrogant loser.

The Anchormen Show with Matt Gaetz Everyone has a podcast now.

Interesting article: When Elected Leaders Pursue Risky Policies, What Can Stop Them? - NYT “uncertainty is its own tax on the economy.” The article also talks about hard and soft limits on policy. It points out how Trump got "Liz Trussed."

"When you start a war..." Why did we vote for this orange idiot.

If I remember correctly, Ukraine gave up its missiles during the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for security assurances from the United States. Seems like that turned out to be a bunch of baloney. After 2008, I remember listening to Jamie Dimon once say he’d be pretty skeptical about making deals with the government, because a deal with one administration can mean jack-shit to another. If I were a country—especially after watching this whole mess—I would never give up my nukes. Never.

There's a lot of companies that couldn't survive two months without access to credit markets. These same ideas apply to businesses as well.

Either Bessent is another POS, or he’s a genius trying to save the country. I haven’t figured out which yet.

Kind of weird Janet Yellen wasn't there.

Interesting article in the NYT today: Bessent Takes Tricky Center Stage as Trade Wars Roil U.S. Economy - NYT "The traditional gathering of former Treasury secretaries to welcome a newly minted one into the fold is usually a lighthearted and pleasant affair. But when the group convened this month, on President Trump’s “Liberation Day,” the tone was strikingly serious. The dinner, organized by former Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin, took place at a moment of tumult for the U.S. economy. The president had upended global trade with punishing tariffs on both allies and adversaries, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was at the center of it, defending a policy that many in the room viewed as economic malpractice. “The mood was somber,” said W. Michael Blumenthal, 99, who led the Treasury Department in the Carter administration and was in attendance. Mr. Bessent was pressed over the strategy behind the tariffs and the impact that they would have on the economy, according to Mr. Blumenthal and other people familiar with the dinner. At times, Mr. Bessent elevated his voice when his predecessors confronted him about Mr. Trump’s approach. “He didn’t just smile,” Mr. Blumenthal recalled. “There he is — he has to defend it.” The guest list included Robert E. Rubin, Henry M. Paulson, Lawrence H. Summers, Timothy F. Geithner and Jack Lew. Former Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen was traveling in Australia and did not attend, a spokesman said."

See my question is can the United States even handle a severe recession?

"Paper money can see its value evaporate if fiscal folly prevails. In some countries, this reckless practice has become habitual, and, in our country’s short history, the U.S. has come close to the edge. Fixed-coupon bonds provide no protection against runaway currency." - Warren Buffett, Feb. 2025

Also read @wabuffo. His economic posts are great.

When did I ever say that I understand everything? I'm confident in my understanding of macroeconomics, politics, and oil, and that's it. While I would say my understanding of the oil market is quite strong, it's almost certainly the weakest of those three.

There was extreme volatility in the bond market and interest rate derivatives, and it was causing a lot of liquidations. Basis trades blowing up, etc. People were really panicking. It's was essentially the same thing that happened during March of 2020. Read this: America’s financial system came close to the brink - The Economist If you can't read it, subscribe to The Economist; it's certainly one of the best financial publications there is. You're doing yourself a huge disservice if you're not reading it.

Don’t forget, Buffett has a master’s in economics. I strongly feel that the macro picture today is 180 degrees from when Buffett first started. Inflation had come down post-WW2, the Fed had just gained its independence, the system wasn’t a hodge-podge of different types of assets and liabilities, debt-to-GDP was quite low, politicians were 1000x more rational, and valuations were generally incredible. When I started investing, one of the first things I noticed was just how much attention the financial industry placed on the Federal Reserve. I thought it was odd, but assumed there had to be a reason, so I set off to try and understand what was really going on. I think over these last few years, I’ve developed a pretty solid handle on it. A lot of policy over the last two decades has been very radical, and even extremely intelligent people often misunderstand how these institutions work—especially how their policies ultimately effect both markets and our currency. And I said intelligent people. I don’t think the average person has any idea what the Fed and Treasury actually do. I strongly think macro outcomes are going to define a lot of what we see in the future. I think a strategy that tries to completely ignore them is not prudent. At a base though, it's the valuations and the future performance of what you own that matters.

You guys seem to be knowledgeable on the subject. What is life like for a conductor? They make good money don’t they? edit: after I wrote this quick post and did some research, I realized that I was misunderstanding the conductor for the “locomotive engineer.” Any info on them would be interesting too.