Blake Hampton

And when you say "esoteric financial instruments," I assume you're talking about derivatives? I have no way of timing this stuff. All I know is that we are on a path towards disaster if nothing changes, and at this point, I'm basically certain that it won't. But I don't know when, no one does. It could be tomorrow or it could be in ten years. But there's no doubt it'll be big. It'll scare people too. I kicked myself for a while not buying VIX calls before Liberation Day though. I knew it was gonna be a doozy.

That's what makes a market. We all have our own differing opinions about the future, and we position ourselves accordingly to try and make as much profit as possible. That is one of the many great aspects of capitalism and free markets.

This is life. $2 trillion and growing deficits are real. The current chaos surrounding our Federal Government is real. Fragility in our banking system and repo markets is real. These enormous asset bubbles are real. You can ignore it if you want to. I will not.

"History tells the story. In the United States, we have had decades of good growth without inflation—in the 1950s and early 1960s, and again in the 1990s through the early 2000s. Those years of stability were also marked by eight recessions, mostly quick, that posed no risk of deflation. Only once in the past century, in the 1930s, have we had deflation, serious deflation. In 2008-2009 there was cause for concern. The common characteristic of those two incidents was collapse of the financial system." — Paul Volcker, Keeping At it

This is from Paul Winfree in Project 2025: Project 2025 PDF

I agree over the long-term. But what about deflation? "History tells the story. In the United States, we have had decades of good growth without inflation—in the 1950s and early 1960s, and again in the 1990s through the early 2000s. Those years of stability were also marked by eight recessions, mostly quick, that posed no risk of deflation. Only once in the past century, in the 1930s, have we had deflation, serious deflation. In 2008-2009 there was cause for concern. The common characteristic of those two incidents was collapse of the financial system." — Paul Volcker, Keeping At it Add to that list 2020 since Volcker died in December of 2019. The hallmark of a systemic credit crisis is extreme deflation. The only asset you can count on not collapsing in price during a crisis like that is cash.

Cash is trash, yet inflation is impossible. I never quite understood that one.

While I believe that energy is structurally set to become more scarce over the long term, I largely see it as a bet on inflation. When prices for everything finally start spiraling upward, energy will lead the pack as it always has. Determining the price of oil is also a bit more complicated than people think, since it relies heavily on currency dynamics on top of the simple supply and demand. It's also one of the few parts of the current market that isn't selling at nosebleed valuations. I'm still a strong believer in Treasury bills however. Oil and cash baby.

It is truly remarkable to me how foolish the United States is acting. Our society is plagued by structural rot in our institutions, perverse incentives everywhere, and a populace that is rock-level stupid. We have widespread access to incredible technology, with the best book of all time basically sitting right inside our pockets, yet so many of us remain completely ignorant of anything that exists outside our own little bubbles or Facebook feeds. It is disgusting and disgraceful. This is not how the world's leading superpower should act. But who cares, stock market's up!

I don't believe we own Greendland yet.

Bill Pulte is quite the goof-ass. And it's funny watching him because it seems like he's trying to imitate King Goof-ass.

If this doesn't end soon, and inventories are finally drawn down, the price of crude oil is going to explode. But the price of oil itself isn't the real issue here. What truly matters are the second and third-order effects that could result from a massive wave of inflation. I'm sure Trump, with his degree in economics, has a strong grasp of the risks and mechanics of what I'm referencing. Energy is the foundation for the real economy, especially so in America, where we consume roughly 5x our global share per capita. The average American consumes about 2,000 pounds of food and drink every year (and we're fat), while consuming about 5,200 pounds of just crude oil per person over that same period. This isn't even considering NGLs and natural gas. News flash people: America is still a net importer of crude oil. I guess it's intelligent that we're treating Canada so well. We're gonna need them.

Studies show that corruption has an extremely strong positive correlation with national decline. The corruption I see within government today is breathtaking.

I believe the significance of this man's views is one of the most underestimated things in finance today. I've thought for some time now that whoever Trump put in as Fed Chair would likely be the single most important thing he did during his second term. Maybe I'm wrong on that, but I still feel that Warsh is immensely important. September 2018: April 2020: October 2022: July 2025:

No one knows where the price of oil is going.

It's only 15 million barrels a day of global supply guys, I don't understand what the big deal is here. It's not like energy is the most important thing for running a global economy or anything. And at least we're safe knowing that global debt levels are at all time lows. Our great leader, some would say the greatest leader in the history of leaders, announced for the 57th time yesterday that we had a deal with Iran. I'm just really glad that we have a man in charge who is taking control and understands what's at stake.

WSJ: U.S. Likely Hit Girls’ School Attached to Iranian Military Compound Hundreds of dead children. But oh no, not one random torn-up flag on Memorial Day. I'm starting to believe that one of the lingering after-effects of COVID-19 is that it actually eats part of the brain's frontal lobe, but for some reason, it only affects Americans. Of course, I have no scientific evidence to back any of this up. But science is actually fake now, so I should be good.

You fucking MAGA morons fell in love with a mob boss. I think Warsh is gonna spank his lily-white ass.

So Warsh has secured his position as god over the financial system, and Trump no longer has any pull over him. Right after Trump finished his remarks, which of course consisted of him spewing bullshit, and right before Warsh's first official speech, Trump gave him the good ol' "yank-shake," by pulling Warsh in close and throwing him off balance. Warsh towards the end of his speech: "These duties are now mine, Mr. President, because of the trust you have placed in me." Warsh gave Trump a similar handshake after the speech concluded.

I don't believe P/E ratios are that good when it comes to gauging valuations; I'm more fond of return on equity and the price paid for that equity. On that front, things today look surprisingly similar to where we were during the Dot-Com Bubble, only this time the market is trading at even larger multiples of its equity. Today: Dot-Com Bubble: (Notice how earnings collapse after the crash. This is why I believe basing valuations on long-term averages is generally better.)

You're quite angry for a guy I believe lives on a beach.

Producers can be particularly strong if the price of the commodity sold increases faster than their cost of producing it. This leads to higher margins and, in effect, higher returns on equity.

Commodities are kind of like the trades. They're not sexy like tech, but they have inherent demand that'll likely keep them moving up alongside the price level.

It's ridiculous how often I hear forecasts, and just how often those same forecasts are wrong. I've learned to tune them out. But likewise, I also think it's crazy that so many people use the futures curve as justification that everything will be fine in six months.

It is quite amazing. But I also think that the current situation could change quickly under certain circumstances.