Blake Hampton

I will trash on this moron until the day I die

Trumplandia

Bottom line is we live in a silly, unserious country.

@KPO check out CRLFF (shoutout @SharperDingaan) and PARXF (technically out of Colombia but trades in Canada).

If you expect FCF of 4.5 B on a 38.1 B company, that's a current FCF yield of nearly 12%. Not too shabby. Also, I think margins can expand significantly in the future as my thesis plays out. But that's what makes a market. I do agree though that there are cheaper options the smaller you're willing to play it. They might also be riskier too.

^ I'll also add that the above sounds nice and sweet until the Saudis and Russians decide to have a d*** measuring contest. Then you die.

A couple of reasons: - Geopolitically, there's no better place to produce than Texas. - Management under Hollub is incredible. - Though high decline rate wells do require more capex, they also have the ability to benefit from volatility in oil prices. You can produce it quick and shut it off quick. That has some advantages. - Larger companies have better economies of scale, and Occidental specifically has relatively low production costs per barrel. - They have better access to credit markets and can get stupid terms on their debt. I think financing the purchase of Crown Rock was quite smart. - The Permian is one of the best oil basins in the world. Low cost, lots of reserves, and lots of future potential.

I thought we were allies with Russia now?

I largely agree though I do still think OXY is an incredible company. When thinking about it, remember that Buffet is an absolute genius, and also remember that he owns a third of it.

You know I was thinking about this again and I had an interesting thought: Wouldn't the net effect from a country's tariffs effectively depend on their specific trade situation? If you're a net exporter = deflationary? If you're a net importer = inflationary?

So you're telling me that Trump isn't the reincarnation of Jesus Christ, our lord and savior?

I once bought stock in a company with almost zero volume and single-handedly made it drop 20%, and I already owned shares in it. I gave myself a loss. Unfortunately the family that owned the company sucked.

I think Berkshire is expensive. However, Buffett's wisdom is priceless.

Oil is arguably the most important commodity in the world; It has incredible pricing power. There's a chronic undersupply in the United States, which will likely worsen as shale production eventually levels off. It's very high-decline-rate stuff, meaning today's production is not a reliable indicator of future output. Currently, the U.S. consumes 20 million barrels of oil per day but produces only around 13 million. Globally, reserve replacement is far below its current production. We're not finding new oil to replace what we're consuming. I have a deep belief that the United States is inching closer and closer towards extreme fiscal and monetary instability. Since the dollar is the world's reserve currency, this essentially equates to future instability in the global financial system. The vast majority of global oil reserves are located in some of the most unstable, most corrupt countries in the world. Nearly the rest of it is located in countries directly adjacent to them. Oil is also priced in dollars, meaning that if the dollar ultimately ends up weakening, oil becomes cheaper for the rest of world in non-dollar terms. This could increase global demand, which is already set to increase. The fiscal breakevens for a lot of these middle eastern countries are above $100 a barrel. Sustained low oil prices are unsustainable for them. I have listened to many of the respected greats and they seem to share the same consensus. I've also seen a lot of studies that point towards oil outperforming during periods of high inflation, which is what I ultimately think we're going to have in this country. Oil generally doesn't store well and the entire industry operates on a sort of just-in-time basis. If you take the current total crude inventory (commercial + SPR), you'll see that we only have about 1 month of our annual consumption. Contrary to what some people here have said, I think that oil companies generally have some of the best capital discipline in the market. I've read and heard stories about past episodes being quite foolhardy, and while of course there are still companies that operate in a bad way, I feel like the oil industry treats its owners better than a lot of other companies. Shareholder returns here are quite meaningful.

I feel like volatility used to bother me, but I've weathered so much of it in just the last couple of years that it sort of became meaningless. It's always seemed funny to me how a company can trade at two massively different price points without a single piece of news in the interim—this inherently makes zero sense.

People must think I have some chronic affinity for the 70s or something.

I would also say that the current setup for oil is almost unbelievable. It just feels like it's too much to explain right now.

How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor - Warren E. Buffett Forget about the inflation part and think about this article in terms of valuing the general market.

He must feel like a god.

It really is quite incredible just how much chaos one man can cause.

Still sitting on a bunch of cash that I might use to finance a home purchase. I'm a Fed though so the job uncertainty is real. A lot of that cash might have to sit around just for emergencies which sucks...

Bought some BRY and OXY

I'm dreaming

I don't know about the 1800s, but the Great Depression coincided with a deflationary collapse. When the money supply shrinks by a third, that has a way of increasing purchasing power for the remaining dollars in the system. That by no way means that prices on imported goods didn't face upward pressure because of tariffs; it's just that the deflationary effects from 40% of our nation's banks failing overwhelmed them. Also, you have to consider that the United States was a net exporter then, which is the complete opposite position of where we are today. The primary problem then was that the retaliatory tariffs from other countries ended up hurting domestic industry. https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Senate_Passes_Smoot_Hawley_Tariff.htm

Great explanation.