Blake Hampton

Oil guy here: Don't forget the 4 million barrels of crude a day; around 20% of our total consumption.

Bingo.

There is no thesis—he's simply so patriotic that he feels it's his duty to provide liquidity for our government.

Guess.

Democrats are so woo-woo that they scared moderates into voting for a lunatic. Good news though—I've heard Gavin Newsom is running in 2028. I'm sure he'll fix it.

Republicans are for free markets and less regulation.

"Investors may feel the same way. They had breathed a sigh of relief after Mr Trump’s sudden decision to cut tariffs on most countries and leave a 90-day gap for trade talks. The reprieve on April 9th lifted shares dramatically and halted a menacing spike in the yield on government debt. The bond market, which had been getting “yippy”, in Mr Trump’s words, turned into something “beautiful”."

Maybe this excess profit capture is where some of our country's remaining jobs are.

Did he buy calls on Nike? Where do you see that?

It's a tough world...

The only thing republicans are cutting is taxes

China has a weapon that could hurt America: rare-earth exports - The Economist "Yet China’s latest restrictions could cause more damage, for three reasons. First, the “heavy” rare earths it has picked are the hardest to substitute. Dysprosium and terbium regulate heat in magnets that power offshore wind turbines, jets and spacecraft. “The bigger the motor, the weightier the rare earth you need,” says Ionut Lazar of CRU, another consultancy. The other five metals are crucial for artificial-intelligence chips. Some are also used in MRI scanners, lasers and fibre optics."

"When a person with money meets a person with experience, the one with experience ends up with the money and the one with money leaves with experience." - Warren Buffett All I can say is don't buy bonds. But none of you really care.

The message for anyone interested: The Treasury market literally almost had a 2020-like liquidity crisis on Wednesday morning. 2020 was an anomaly, a pandemic covering up systemic problems. April 9th was nothing more than a loss of faith.

If I were in China, I'd be buying the hell out of undervalued H shares. But I'm not in China.

I took the time to write that message to you @gfp and you're buying long bonds? Take this as kind advice: you're gonna get fucked.

It's simple: when Trump tells people to buy, I don't. Here's a cool picture from The Economist: "Puddles so far avoided."

I strongly believe we're at the very beginning: Trump’s incoherent trade policy will do lasting damage - The Economist America’s financial system came close to the brink - The Economist Bond-market convulsions look extremely dangerous - The Economist I'm gonna take another break from the board for a bit.

I'm not afraid of volatility. This much volatility in the Treasury market is a different matter entirely. Hedge funds unwinding basis trades is what blew it all up in 2020, and now that same market is $8 trillion bigger. Trump is marching around like some retarded Godzilla, stomping on both markets and faith, without considering the consequences. Honestly, I don't think many of you have thought about them either.

S&P 500's 9th largest daily increase since 1923.

They updated the list. See a trend?

Boys, it's time to load up on dogshit. This sucker is about to RIP.

By my calculations: $549 B in tariffs on China + $283 B in tariffs on all other imports = $832 B in total tariffs. $832 B in total tariffs ÷ $3,267 B in total imports = 25.5% effective tariff rate. This doesn't account for the weird policies currently in place with Canada and Mexico. Also, much of the trade with China will likely shift to neighboring countries if these tariffs remain. The average applied tariff rate was around 2.5% last year, so this is still a massive increase. It certainly carries significant implications for prices. Additionally, this means economic war with China. But the market is up—so that means we’re good.

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/trad1224.pdf

Does anybody need any more evidence that the stock market is stupid? Short-term anyway right?