giulio

"Congratulations Prem on a very strong quarter" would be a dream intro!

Thanks @SafetyinNumbers, i did not consider this optionality actually. Still, it's way easier to hold the stock now. If the stock ran way higher than the actual business results/prospects it would be harder to hold on. What do you think?

I would not care about index inclusion as long as you plan to hold the share for the long term, which I assume you do given your estimates of fair value. Imo, Best thing that can happen is that shares remain undervalued, they keep buying back 2-3% pa and invest to grow the business. Think about the money they can deploy in India, or grow the insurance in this hard market or take advantage of a widening in spreads if something unexpected happens. The cash coming from their bond portfolio probably offers a sufficient cushion in case of a bad year. Share price will follow the cash generation capability of the business, regardless of accounting standards or the trs position. G

https://www.livemint.com/market/ipo/go-digit-clears-another-hurdle-on-road-to-ipo-11707838171762.html

1000% right. Brad Jacobs discussed how he reacted to a short attack on XPO. I thought it was brilliant. https://www.joincolossus.com/episodes/19966134/jacobs-think-big-and-move-fast?tab=transcript

Here are my notes after digesting the news. Sorry for the errors, I just wrote down my thoughts. **** I don't think the report highlights anything new for members of this board. We knew that the transactions with OMERS were essentially debt in nature. Grivalia and EB issues? discussed already APR, farmersedge and Fairfax africa were dogs and investment mistakes? agree. Fairfax cash starved in 2020? sure I thought the AVLN was similar to guaranteeing the reserves level. It allowed FFH more time to come up with cash needed as well. Is this bad behavior from Prem? Also, isn'it a bit stretched to say that EXCO has a market value? Not an expert but this is extremely illiquid and no financials are available. Gulf Insurance purchase price is spread over 5 years! 200M at closing and 165M over the next 4 years which is close to what the company recently earned. Does not seem an inflated price to me. The only thing that caught my eye was what the Digit former employee had to say about the company. Digit is not lemonade for sure, I think it can stand on its own and knows how to write insurance. I am curious about its tech stack though: is it more like Progressive or GEICO? In the end the report revolves around accounting issues and how FFH has chosen to present results. This is why it is paramount to focus on economic reality rather than just reported numbers. MAYBE the accounting was a bit aggressive and Prem did hide some losses during an extremely difficult Covid period. We need to contrast this with everything we know about the culture of the company and make up our minds. On my part, I purchased more shares yesterday around $910.

2022 AR Fairfax Financial is entitled to a performance fee calculated at the end of each three-year period, of 20% of any increase in Fairfax India’s BVPS (including distributions) above a non-compounded 5% increase each year from the BVPS at inception in 2015 2021 AR The performance fee is calculated at the end of each three-year period since inception, and the amount payable as at the end of any three-year period is the total amount calculated minus the aggregate of the performance fees paid in respect of all prior three-year periods. The performance fee has been calculated on this basis for the first two three-year periods

"a compound rate of 50-100% per annum has proven the sustainable growth trend...we get a 5x-10x in 12-18 months..." Cathie, are you in this room with us?

here is another interesting article @Dinar https://www.wsj.com/business/insurance-home-auto-rate-increases-climate-change-03b806f3?mod=itp_wsj,djemITP_h

@Xerxes it could be worse, like me being double taxed in Canada and Italy Let's hope they increase the buyback as well!

I havo no position, no idea how it unfolds. My post was to highlight the FFH team hot hand. Best of luck to those playing the merg arb!

https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/iifl-finance-share-price-block-deal-fairfax-among-sellers-exclusive-18627871.htm With bial deal and performance fee payment approaching I guess they HAD to sell something

FFH investment team has been playing merger arbs pretty well this year: X, ATVI, DICE, ARCE, PRVB, FSTX, VIVO. CPRI was a recent buy. Small positions but I am impressed. G

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-westbridge-renewable-closes-deal-to-sell-first-of-five-solar-power/

You are correct, it should not change the ownership % but FFH still has to pay cash for those shares. From Q3 2023: At September 30, 2023 the fair value of the AVLNs was a derivative obligation of $21.5 (December 31, 2022 – derivative asset of $30.7), with a remaining guaranteed value of $352.3

So is this related to the sale of Riverstone? the run off subsidiary? Ffh had to sell or purchase shares at a fixed amount by year end 2023 iirc. By shares I mean stocks held as part of Riverstone investments portfolio.

@gfp THANK YOU! Great posts as always. This whole Haslam's machination is complete nonsense. Pure greed, I guess they will have the reputation they deserve. Can't wait for it to be over and for brk to liquidate this "poor" guy.

makes a lot of sense, thank you @StubbleJumper! I am very curious about how this cycle evolves and how FFH adapts, many levers to pull. We will see!

@Parsad given the recent growth in premiums and their stated objective of limiting cat losses to 1 year of normalized earnings (i.e. 15% pre-tax ROE), do you think that FFH will hold more cash at holdco going forward? Should we expect $3B as a new average level of cash? TIA

Today is a sad day

I wondered the same when Logistec was up for sale... I don't see that happening in the near future unfortunately, unless it's an insurance business. Other than the restaurant business do we have other examples of something they bought, with a >80% stake and kept holding? Contrary to Buffett I think Prem would sell anything that gets closer to fair value or overpriced. G

Sure... In Italy we say "if my grandma had wheels she would have been a bike"... This non-sense crypto world is so funny. Looking back at the forbes covers...great memories Not taking shots at your post BTW. The "belivers" market is huge...just ask Chamath for proof!

I think it goes against human nature not to take credit for something like btc. You inveted digital gold and don't want to explain it on cnbc? I have never seen a "leader" of a currency (or gold). Lots of leaders in cults though. Keep the faith!

Who exactly are you quoting? Seriously, who's the "father" of this wonder?

Added to PRM I don't understand why is tanking today. A bit concerned about the absence of insiders buying and the fact that they have not announced an earnings release date.